Summary of remarks made by US dignitaries (7/19 to 7/23)
7/19
・Kashkari, the president of the US Minneapolis Federal Reserve
“It is appropriate to discuss the possibility of September interest rate cuts”
“The balance of risk is shifting from inflation to the labor market out of a double responsibility.”
“Inflation is showing progress, and the labor market is showing some worrying signs.”
7/21
・U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Director Bowman
“The labor market continues to relax and is becoming more balanced.”
“The unemployment rate is rising but remains at a historically low level”
“Wage growth rates remain above target”
“We will continue to be cautious about changes in policy stance”
“If inflation is shown to be falling continuously toward the target, it is appropriate to gradually lower interest rates so as not to become excessively suppressive.”
“We believe there will continue to be an upward risk in inflation.”
“We need to be patient so as not to jeopardize continued progress towards controlling inflation.”
7/22
・US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Summary (7/30-31)
“The majority of officials see the September rate cut as appropriate”
“Several officials pointed out arguments for interest rate cuts at July meeting”
“Many officials say interest rates are suppressive”
“Downside risks to employment are seen to be increasing”
“Nearly all officials want more details on inflation data before interest rate cuts”
“Almost all officials expect disinflation to continue”
“Some officials have pointed out the risk of a more serious deterioration in the labor market”
“Officials say the risk of rising inflation has declined”
“Multiple officials presented arguments for interest rate cuts in July”
・U.S. Kansas City Federal Reserve President Schmid
“We need to see more data before we support interest rate cuts”
“The annual revision of employment statistics does not change my way of thinking”
Colins, President of the Boston Federal Reserve
“Data will guide the pace of interest rate cuts”
“Despite revisions to employment statistics, the labor market is healthy”
“Gradual interest rate cuts will be appropriate”
・Philadelphia Fed President Harker
“If the data is as expected, I support the September rate cut”
7/23
・U.S. Atlanta Fed President Bostic
“We cannot wait for a change in policy interest rates until the inflation rate returns to 2%”
“Preparations are being made to start cutting interest rates”
“We hope for a calm and orderly return to normalization”
“Inflation is still not particularly close to the Fed's target”
“A sign that the labor market is returning to a more normalized state”
・Philadelphia Fed President Harker
“We need to start lowering interest rates”
・Chicago Fed President Goulsby
“I want to be careful about the employment aspect, which is my responsibility”
“Inflation is moving towards 2%”
“According to forecasts, support for interest rate cuts is spreading”
“The job market is cooling down by almost all indicators”
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ぴるさん OP :
︎ points
・Both hawks and pigeons have positive opinions about interest rate cuts
・From a future point of view, we have switched to “inflation → unemployment rate”