Summary for this week & upcoming week
First, there were two scenarios in my financial estimates for the end of last weekend:
And the results were:
Hmm, I feel like the financial estimates of the orange line are close, so I have eliminated the scenario of the green line.
Indeed, on Thursday, I didn't think it would drop like that... 💦 It's worth noting that it was supported at 0.236 and on Friday, the employment statistics are expected to show a self-rebound.
What concerns me is that while FEDWATCH is increasingly expecting a rate cut, the interest rate has risen to the mid-4.3 range.
I wonder if the bond market is cracking due to the uncertainty about the future... When bond investors in general are signaling 'uncertainty about which way it will go,' the real answer is that no one really knows...
However, the lingering effects of the strong start of this week are still present, so I expect a light rebound on Monday, with possible selling pressure starting around the 5th and early liquidation in anticipation... It seems like the upside will be heavy until the FOMC and throughout next week from Tuesday.
However, if asked whether it will decline to financial estimates (C), currently I have shifted towards the view that it will not drop that far. I am mainly focused on the scenario where it rises to around (B), and perhaps 5600 will be the bottom.
Even if there is a further rebound this time, I don't think it's a dead cat bounce. I can say that with confidence.
We have added forecasts up to a fairly distant period from there, expecting consolidation and an upward trend 💪.
Of course, there are many other patterns of estimates, but I can't list them all, so I'll focus on the main scenario 🙇♂️.
In conclusion, I currently foresee an ATH update by the end of the year.
Around 6100 maybe 🤔.
Well, whether it will go up like the arrow in the forecast, I cannot say for sure 😂.
How about BTC...But even if it's slow, it wouldn't be strange to update the ATH around January...Especially with no major geopolitical risks. It's strange how cryptocurrencies are the first to sell off in this case. Calling it digital gold is a thing of the past 😢.
As for altcoins...well, hang in there 😄
Personal points of reflection this week
① Although the downward trend was predicted well, it moved too fast.
② I expected an increase in intel's earnings, but I missed the mark, haha.
③ Underestimated the Trump trade (especially DOGE).
PS: Congratulations on adding NVDA and DAW🎊 It has been guaranteed by history that they are companies that represent America in the long term! Congratulations to the holders as well!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
