Talk with a serious mentor
I haven't moved much since it's been a long period of time, but I think it will always rise over a few days if the market is just weak without clear reason or basis, and I think the result will be that it was just a shopping place... in a recession, it is normal for people to later recognize that that time was an economic recession... so as a possibility, it is also possible to predict that it will decline by incorporating the upcoming economic recession, and there is a possibility that it has bottomed out I also have to think about it, if it's the latter, I think it's unlikely that corporate performance will fall into a serious recession, so there is a possibility that it will be a perfect place to buy later... and in this case, I think the soft, hard, and no recession will be judged based on what kind of movement the index makes, but in my opinion, there is no clear data on falling into a recession and now is in a recession phase, it's a soft landing or something It means you're walking the path of No Landing
Among them, interest rate cuts will begin with a high probability in September, and I don't think there is any need to worry if data on economic indicators that suggest a rapid rise in the unemployment rate or economic recession does not deteriorate rapidly, so isn't it really too much of an overreaction? I have a feeling, but what do you guys think
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超長期投資家 : Market reactions have become increasingly sensitive since July. The fear index is also maintained at a high level, and a state of excitement
トリリオンネア : The unemployment rate at night is decisive for me, so if it is higher than 4.1%, I will switch from L to S at that point.
かせいふ : If it's 4.2 par, I'll cut the new NISA and look for the biggest buying opportunity
サクッとSP : I thought there were signs of a recession little by little from the figures around May. So from that point on, I was wondering if it would be too late to cut interest rates even in September... due to the balance of the presidential election, I wonder if September would be hesitant too... And now, the September interest rate cut route. If anything, the probability of 0.5 basis all at once is it really possible to do a soft landing? There is nothing but anxiety. There's a lot of bad news going on and it's been spurring me... but it's been a long time for me too. I think the only way to go back to the beginning is to stick to the beginning.
ジョモりん OP サクッとSP : I think the only way left for the long term is buy and hold since it has moved this far, and it depends on the price you bought
サクッとSP : I didn't buy it at a high price, so hold onI'm not thinking about buying a bike right now
ジョモりん OP トリリオンネア : Is it a decision to switch early, even at 4.2%? After all, does it feel like a few days of waiting and seeing?
トリリオンネア ジョモりん OP : I'm judging by looking at the 200-day average, but yesterday I already broke the average line.
Today, too, the unemployment rate remains dull and at -10%, and if the interruption becomes certain, there is a big possibility that it will collapse all at once again, so I will switch here without any hope.
ジョモりん OP : Thank you for your opinion