谈财政部新闻发布会：气氛和目的比规模更重要

The policy meeting did not specify the specific operations or the target data, but the general direction is quite clear.
Speaking of my personal focus,The first is to support local government debt, the second is to find ways to stabilize the real estate market, and the third is to safeguard people's livelihoods.These directions once again demonstrate the real guiding role of domestic policies in the market. As the saying goes, take care of your own children, as for local debt issues, it's best to solve them locally. Of course, if there is too much debt and the local government cannot handle it, there are still ways and measures from above.
In essence, this is another warning, but warnings aside, consequences still need to be faced. Such measures have pros and cons. The advantage is that the lbx pharmacy chain joint stock temporarily don't need to worry about local bonds defaulting, after all, those less developed industrial areas still rely on them for people's livelihoods. The downside is that some lessons that should have been learned may not have truly sunk in. When looking at issues, different perspectives lead to different conclusions.
However, I feel this may be the last time such a large-scale handling of local government debt issues. The attitude of the meeting was quite firm: stimulating the economy is definitely a top priority. In fact, there are still many cards to play, depending on the international situation and domestic conditions before they are gradually revealed.
As for the performance of the stock market next Monday, I estimate it may not be very strong, but real estate stocks and brokerage stocks may have a chance to rebound. However, no one dares to guarantee the extent of this increase, so caution should still be the main approach.

Regarding the press conference held by the Ministry of Finance on the morning of October 12, 2024, let's further discuss two points.

First, those who are supposed to come will come, and incremental funds will definitely come.；Secondly, what is more important than scale is atmosphere and purpose.

In the long run, the direction and pace of the policy need to be correct.

In the short term, the atmosphere and pace of the press conference need to be appropriate.

Another thing to pay attention to is,The stock market really cannot be predicted. There are no bull markets or bear markets, only volatility.。

Perhaps after meetings, publications, promotions, and encouraging information, the stock market starts to rise before taking any actual action. Perhaps only when a large amount of real money and silver enters the market, it will rise. Perhaps only when the real economy improves, the situation will warm up. It would be best if the policy has not been implemented yet, the funds have not been released, and the stock market warms up directly.

Once contacted a state-owned rescue fund, which was set up to deal with the risk of forced liquidation due to a sharp drop in the stock price of a listed company and excessive equity pledges. It took a long time from construction to formal operation. After the rescue fund was established and the funds were in place, the company's stock price rose. No relief needed, everyone is happy.

It can be said that this press conference provided top-level policy support within the authority of the Ministry of Finance. The issuance of national bonds involves budget adjustments, which must be approved by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, otherwise it would violate legal procedures. The Ministry of Finance's advance notice and reminders before the process is completed are of great significance. Specific amounts may not be announced this time, and may be announced after approval by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress at the end of this month. The most important thing is the attitude.It sets a signal for the transition from a tight fiscal policy to an expansionary fiscal policy.

If the incremental scale of future fiscal policy is not less than 4 trillion, it will directly drive the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter to rise to over 5.0%. Then, smoothly achieve the annual growth target of around 5.0%.

Debt-for-equity swapsThe phrase was mentioned multiple times at this meeting. Objectively speaking, from the perspective of goals, debt-for-equity swaps may be the primary factor, followed by the stock market, and then others.

Citic Securities' Chief Economist Li Ming also stated that in terms of local debt management, debt-for-equity swaps will be the focus of this round of fiscal policies. This measure will significantly reduce the pressure of local government debt, benefit local economic development, and support the 'three guarantees' policy.

However, hopefully there can be more applications.

From the feedback of the market at the previous NDRC press conference, if this money is used to increase infrastructure investment and strengthen subsidies for replacement of old for new, it may not necessarily gain market approval. If more funds can be used to stimulate consumption and innovative measures taken, that would earn extra points. If clear guidance can be provided on next year's policies and a warm commitment to "take all necessary measures to immediately stimulate the economy," that would be a pleasant surprise.