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In 2025, technology giants will likely lead the way - UBS
December 5, 2024, 10:22 AM (EST) Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund ETF (XLK) AAPL, IYW, VGT, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, SP500 Author: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
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Symbol of a major technology company. Technology background with blue neon lights
Gillnature
While it is expected that the gap between major technology stocks and other market stocks will narrow, consensus forecasts that major stocks will continue to lead next year.
The top 6 market capitalization stocks in the S&P 500 (SP500), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet Class A (GOOGL), Alphabet Class C (GOOG) have gained a return of 149% since 2023, with EPS increasing by 93%. Additionally, 76% of the price increase for the top 6 stocks is due to earnings, compared to 11% for non-technology stocks.
This year's technology stocks (NYSEARCA:XLK), (IYW), (VGT) are expected to increase EPS by 28%, surpassing the other market stocks by 4%. However, by 2025, this difference is expected to narrow to 10.5%, with technology stocks increasing by 20% while other market stocks are expected to increase by 9.5%.
"The growth rate of the entire technology sector (XLK) is blurring the difference between the 'Big 6' and the rest of the group," wrote Jonathan Golub, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at UBS in a note. "For example, in 2024, while the EPS of the 'Big 6' expanded by 38%, the rest of the companies in the technology sector (XLK) expanded by 12%, resulting in a difference of 26%. This difference is expected to narrow by 2025, with the growth rate of the Big 6 slightly below the rest of the companies, at 19% versus 21.5%."
Adjustments between 2024 and 2025 are focused on the top 6 stocks, with the rest of the technology sector (XLK) only 'slightly exceeding historical averages,' according to Golub.