Technical market indicators show Alibaba stock is primed for a rally that could shake shares in the Chinese tech giant out of their funk—if only there were a catalyst.

Geopolitical tensions or trade talks could be the ticket, or a risk.

Alibaba stock continues to languish, down more than 1% so far this year—badly lagging behind the S&P 500 index as well as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng benchmark—and sliding more than 8% in the past month. The e-commerce and cloud-computing giant has been rocked by China’s economic slowdown over the past year, with geopolitical tensions radiating out of Beijing doing little to help the picture.

But at least one indicator suggests Alibaba stock could be ready to turn around. It’s a matter of technical analysis, which is based on trends in market data. Alibaba stock is showing signs of a so-called golden cross, which is when the 50-day moving average of a stock price rises above the 200-day moving average, indicating momentum in the shares.

Alibaba stock exhibited the golden cross on Monday and held that pattern through Tuesday’s close, with the 50-day moving average of the share price sitting at $77.69, above the 200-day’s $77.47. Alibaba stock was up another 0.3% in Wednesday morning trading, suggesting the technical indicators could continue to strengthen.

All this looks solid for Alibaba, at least in the short term. Don’t forget the stock, like many other Chinese names, faces fundamental pressures from China’s economic woes and existential risks from geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, the immediate setup looks positive, though the technicals alone are unlikely to be enough to buoy the stock. That will take a more meaningful catalyst.

Look no further than geopolitics or trade. While geopolitics is only a partial risk for Alibaba—its cloud arm has been hammered by U.S. chip-export controls, though the group’s core business remains Chinese online retail—it can have an outsize impact on wider sentiment for Chinese stocks.

For better or worse, Chinese sentiment—and by extension, Alibaba stock—could be in for a shift this week. Beijing has agreed to talks with the European Union over the bloc’s high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, a key trade issue that could lift China equities if progress is made. Less encouraging is that the U.S. ambassador to Beijing told The Wall Street Journal China has been undermining diplomacy and fomenting anti-American sentiment.