Tesla 11-day rising party non-stopping: You in or out?
$Tesla(TSLA.US$ has experienced a remarkable 44% surge over the past 11 consecutive trading days, setting a new record for the longest upward streak since last June. During the past few months, Tesla's stock has significantly recovered, resulting in its weight within Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, valued at 6.2 billion USD, reaching an all-time high. Following a rebound of over 80% from its lowest point in April 2024, Tesla currently represents approximately 15.4% of the total weight in the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), even after the fund reduced its Tesla holdings recently. An analysis by Strategas Securities indicates that Tesla's weight in this disruptive technology fund has reached its highest level in its 10-year history. Tesla has long been one of Wood's highly favored stocks, regaining its position as the largest holding in ARKK in April, replacing Coinbase. In June, Wood updated her long-term target price for Tesla to $2,600 by 2029, which would be around $3,100 in a bullish market.
Analysts Divided on Tesla's Future Trajectory
Analysts Divided on Tesla's Future Trajectory
During Tesla's remarkable 11-day winning streak, Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund, has indicated that Wall Street analysts may need to revise their earnings estimates and price targets based on Tesla's upcoming Q2 earnings report. It is expected that the report will reveal higher-than-anticipated auto gross margins and adjusted earnings per share (EPS). Black also mentioned the possibility of a reversal in Tesla's trend of negative earnings revisions over the past 18 months, as the company focuses on utilizing low-interest-rate loans to drive electric vehicle (EV) volumes instead of implementing price cuts. Despite this optimistic outlook, some analysts, such as Gordon Johnson from GLJ Research, maintain a bearish perspective. Johnson points to declining margins and slower growth in car sales and predicts that Tesla's stock could potentially drop below $30 per share. Click to view more analyst's views>>
Tesla cars for the first time on the Chinese government purchase list
Tesla Model Y rear-wheel drive version has been listed for the first time in the Chinese government procurement catalog. Model Y, which has a starting price of 249,900 RMB in mainland China, is currently one of the most popular SUVs. It has gained significant market traction globally. Tesla's Q2 production and delivery report revealed that by June 30, the company had produced 411,000 vehicles and delivered 444,000 vehicles, surpassing market expectations with a 15% increase in deliveries compared to the previous quarter. Out of the total deliveries, the Model 3 and Model Y combined accounted for 424,000 units. The higher-than-expected delivery figures have boosted investor confidence. On July 2, Tesla's stock price surged by 10.20% in the U.S. stock market, resulting in a market capitalization increase of $68.2 billion. On Tuesday, Tesla's stock price continued its upward trajectory for the 10th consecutive trading day, marking the longest winning streak since June of the previous year.
Production of humanoid robots will begin next year
Tesla's management has consistently emphasized that the company is not just an automobile manufacturer but also an artificial intelligence or robotics company.
The second-generation humanoid robot, Optimus, made its debut at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference from July 4th to 7th.
The second-generation humanoid robot, Optimus, made its debut at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference from July 4th to 7th.
It uses the same pure visual system as robots, so it can be understood that this vehicle is more like a four-wheeled robot.
said a Tesla representative at the Tesla booth at WAIC 2024 on July 5th.
Tesla plans to start limited production of humanoid robots next year, with over 1,000 Optimus robots assisting humans in production tasks at Tesla factories. Musk predicts that humanoid robots will become the main force in the industry in the future, with a projected quantity surpassing humans, reaching 10 to 20 billion robots. Tesla aims to produce 1 billion units per year, capturing a market share of over 10%. The estimated cost is around $10,000, with a projected selling price of $20,000, which would bring Tesla a market worth $25 to $30 trillion. Although the company plans to achieve small-scale production in 2025, the market size and actual demand in this field have significant uncertainties. Tesla's leadership position and innovation in this field may have a positive impact on its valuation, but short-term profitability seems unlikely.
Meanwhile, the Tesla Cybertruck, with its futuristic appearance, bulletproof body, and incorporation of leading technologies in the automotive industry, has become a popular product of interest. Tesla previously revealed its Robotaxi (or Cybercab) plan, scheduled to launch on August 8th. Tesla has faced slow progress in autonomous driving technology, and the market remains skeptical about its future profitability in this field. In a report last Tuesday, Cantor Fitzgerald analysts stated,
While we don't expect this segment to launch before 2027, we do see it as a meaningful business sector for the company in the long run.
Tesla's energy business is growing
In Q2 2024, Tesla experienced substantial growth in its energy generation and storage division, with the deployment of 9.4 GWh of energy storage products—more than double the amount in Q1 2024. Despite this rapid growth, the energy business still represents a smaller portion compared to the automotive segment. The extent to which it can become a significant revenue stream for Tesla in the future remains uncertain. While the market holds optimism for this segment, it may not be sufficient to completely offset any challenges faced by the automotive business.
Tesla 11-day rising party non-stopping: You in or out? Please drop your answer with reasonable comments, and you will receive 33 points. ![]()
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