Tesla: A Buy, note before Robotaxi day
*Disclaimer: I own Tesla stocks and this post reflects my personal views. Always DYOR (Do your own research).
1. Lower your expectation for Robotaxi day:
Robotaxi aka cybercab is not expected to enter mass production until Q1 2027. Given this timeline, expecting a significant post-event stock surge for Tesla may be overly optimistic. Whether Tesla's Robotaxi service will use fully autonomous vehicles or leverage existing Tesla owners' cars, the company's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology must meet governmental requirements (Level 4 autonomy in some states) to operate driverless taxi services. I think robotaxi day might not able to boost share price, but i am still bullish on Tesla for long-term. If there were any pullback after the event, it would be a good time to buy.
2. Diversification Beyond Automotive:
Despite mixed Q2 2024 results with auto revenue down 7% yoy to $19.9 billion, Tesla's strategic shift towards non-automotive sectors like energy and mobility promises sustainable EPS growth. Energy Generation and Storage revenue doubled to $3 billion, driven by strong demand for Powerwall and Megapack products.
3. Financial Health:
Tesla boasts strong cash flow and manageable debt, with total debt at $12.5 billion and cash and cash equivalents increased to $30.72 billion. This provides ample resources for R&D and expansion, supporting initiatives like the Cybertruck and AI projects. Operating cash flow rose to $3.6 billion, up from $3.065 billion the previous quarter.
4. Valuation Insights:
Telsa is now trading at around 60x P/E, 56x EV/EBITDA. While traditional metrics suggest a high valuation, a sum-of-the-parts analysis reveals potential undervaluation. Tesla's focus on non-automotive segments justifies its valuation premium, with potential for upside revisions to EBITDA estimates. The 2025 forward EV/EBITDA ratio stands at 51.7x, but considering long-term growth potential and benefits from diversification, it may lower to around 30x by 2026.
If you're considering investing, you might consider buying a call option with a very small amount of capital instead of going all in. Always DYOR.
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a AU-based investor focus on US & AU markets. I am CFA charterholder and hold MSc degree in Food Science from UNSW🦘
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101869381 : Will they showcase more of their humanoids/robots?
MONTA CFA OP 101869381 : Yes they may. as suggested by the caption "We, Robot" for this event. Tesla plans to start limited production of Optimus in 2025.
151671437 : thanks
先定1个小目标 : Do you think the results of the usa presidential election will seriously impact tesla's future development? After all, Elon Musk is deeply involved in politics now.
neat Chupacabra_4569 MONTA CFA OP : Unfortunately, we keep seeing many promises from Musk over the last decade, and timelines always get pushed.... "limited production" is a nice phrase to get out of committing when mass commercial production will start. you can produce 1 prototype device and say limited production has started![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
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MONTA CFA OP neat Chupacabra_4569 : lol so true
Dan’l : This is the best read on Tesla yet.
Despite being squeamish of the meme-ish nature of $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ nowadays? It’s now a bargain, having shed the weight of folks’ expectations.
I like Elon Musk, who paid me well for my tiny part of Twitter, buUut… he causes more volatility than a cybertruck driving through high water.
SoOo… it’s shares, for me: they’ll go up. Period. How much, and when? That relies too heavily upon Musk, which, for me? Rules out Tesla calls (see below).