Tesla Full Self-Driving data makes Elon Musk lower expectations
A Waymo robotaxi travels on average 95,000 miles between interventions.
Tesla still resists releasing its Full Self-Driving data, but early crowdsourced data shows that Tesla's figure is much lower than Waymo's and improvements are much more limited than CEO Elon Musk told us.
He is now lowering expectations.
Tesla's lack of transparency regarding the data combined with Musk clearly guessing the improvement in intervention with a massive 5 to 10x margin doesn't add up to much credibility.
The CEO is talking about "doubling average miles between interventions" with 12.5 this month when he was talking about a 5 to 10x increase with 12.4 last month.
The data they are referring to is from Tesla FSD Trackerand it is great data, but again, it is extremely limited with a total of 150,000 miles versus the 1.6 billion miles of data Tesla claims to have about FSD.
For the v12.5 data that some Tesla fans are already raving about, it's super limited with 1,591 miles reported at the time of publishing.
We are talking about only 44 miles between disengagement and 331 miles between critical disengagement. This is far, far lower thanWaymo robotaxi's 95,000 miles.
The truth is that it's way too early to be valuable data, but it's still enough to tell that Elon's claim of 5 to 10x improvement is likely nonsense.
He is himself now talking about only doubling miles by the end of the month.
At this pace, we are still years away even though Elon again said this year or next year just last month.
Finally, the fact that Elon comments on limited crowdsourced data without releasing Tesla's actual data on FSD doesn't help the credibility.
Tesla should back what it is saying with intervention data, and the only reason that I can think of why they are not showing it is that it looks bad.
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