Tesla Full Self-Driving: Way Ahead Or Miles Behind? Will Robotaxi Get Regulatory Approval Soon?
With Tesla's horrible 2Q2024 results of poor EV sales, its lofty valuation of >90x depends everything on robotaxi and AI. Will Tesla get regulatory approval for robotaxi anytime soon?
The statistics show that Waymo and Cruise vehicles on average travel 95,000 and 17,000 miles (unsupervised) respectively between interventions, which is vastly superior to Tesla Full Self-Driving, which is lucky to go 17 miles (supervised) without needing human help. Unlike Tesla, Waymo and Cruise vehicles are able to drive safely in geofenced areas without constantly requiring an attentive driver to intervene. They are thousands of times better than Tesla's FSD.
With a safety driver, Waymo & Cruise aren't geo-fenced. They can drive anywhere for tens of thousands of miles without human intervention. That's hundreds of times better than @Tesla Full Self-Driving on its best day, on the easiest route, in the best weather, with no traffic. https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1685710279882264576
- Dan O'Dowd (@RealDanODowd) July30, 2023
Musk, known for ambitious timelines, hinted at the possibility of unsupervised Tesla robotaxi ride happening by the end of 2024.
"It's difficult, obviously, my predictions on this have been overly optimistic in the past," Musk said. "…based on the current trend… you could do [it] unsupervised possibly by the end of this year. I would be shocked if we cannot do it next year."
The deployment of robotaxis relies on both technological advancement and regulatory approval. Musk, however, does not believe regulatory hurdles will be a limiting factor for Tesla.
"…if you've got billions of miles that show that in the future unsupervised FSD is safer than human, what regulator could really stand in the way of that? They're morally obligated to approve," Musk said on Tue.
In response to an investor discussion about FSD shared on X, Musk wrote that only one out of every 10,000 miles of distance driven is actually useful for training the FSD neural network.
Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) users have passed 1.3 billion cumulative (supervised) miles as of Apr 2024. Which means that only 130,000 miles is useful for AI training. And they are all supervised unlike Waymo's. For unsupervised autonomous driving, Tesla continues to collect zero miles of data every day. Why should they approve when Tesla has zero miles of unsupervised FSD driving?
So Musk claim of getting regulatory approval for robotaxi by the end of the year is complete bs. It's just a dream. Tesla is way behind in autonomous driving.
Waymo and Cruise are scaling exponentially and collecting thousands of unsupervised autonomous miles. As these manufacturers collect more and more data, each subsequent cities becomes easier to navigate.
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Space Dust : but how![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
. that can't be true, noone is smarter than Elon, just listen to his fans. he must have secretly worked for those other companies to achieve better stats.
10baggerbamm : if you listened to Elon Musk over the past couple of quarters and conference calls he says they run FSD in testing round the clock and he gets reports and he says the reports are so boring because nothing's happening there's no accidents there's no near misses. and it's unrealistic to expect FSD to have no crashes and that's because you know damn well someone's going to see an FSD Tesla and intentionally plow their car into it and it'll make the news that the Tesla FSD hit their car because you know the News lies it's agenda driven and we know the left hate Elon Musk because of the Twitter files. so Elon Musk needs to get FSD going as soon as possible and something yesterday was an aha moment for me. I was listening to somebody talk about Tesla and FSD and he's saying I have a friend who's blind and he cannot wait till FSD becomes a reality so he can drive wherever he wants to go and not rely on other people. I know that's a very very tiny fraction of a percent but just think about it that would be the equivalent of a paraplegic walking
bullrider_21 OP : The NTHSA is investigating hundreds of accidents and dozens of deaths involving FSD. And don't blame all of them on the drivers. Other drivers crashing into Tesla cars. No accidents indeed.
Tesla cars can't drive more than 17 miles before human intervention, without which there will be crashes. There has been zero miles driven without human intervention.