Tesla Q1 Delivery Expectations Slashed, Seeing Stalling Growth From A Year Ago
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ is expected to deliver 432,000 vehicles for this quarter, which is almost equal to 422,875 deliveries in 2023 Q1, according to Kalshi data. Kalshi is a regulated exchange & prediction market where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events, such as buying and selling contracts.
Tesla hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023. The previous quarterly delivery record was in Q2 with 466,140.
What Factors May Influence Tesla's Delivery Expectations?
The Chinese New Year holiday, from Feb. 10-24, significantly affected Tesla’s sales across the board in China. Tesla deliveries of China-made vehicles in January and February totaled 131,812, down 6% compared with 2023, according to data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
After slashing prices in 2023, Tesla continues to cut prices in 2024. In January, it cut Model 3 and Model Y prices in China modestly. On March 1, Tesla announced significant incentives for entry-variant Model 3 and Y vehicles, including insurance subsidies, cheap loan rates, and more.
In Europe, Tesla slashed the price of the Model Y in several countries due to declining sales and reduced subsidies. On February 12, the company raised the price of the Model Y in some major European markets, though most are still lower than they were before the January price cut.
In February, Tesla raised the U.S. price of its refreshed Model 3 Long Range by $1,000, but that largely reflected limited supply at the Fremont plant. Tesla only briefly cut the price of the Model Y in the U.S. in February, but the discount on brand-new inventory is still much deeper.
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are set to moderate in 2024 after setting a blistering mark for growth in 2023, according to a report from market data and analytics provider J.D. Power.
J.D. Power reduced its EV Market Share Forecast by 0.8 percentage points for 2024 to reflect delayed vehicle launches, production issues, restrictions associated with the Clean Vehicle Credit, slowing adoption patterns in some states, and plateauing shopper interest driven largely by concerns about public charging.
Another reason for the slowdown is that the availability of mainstream electric vehicles still lags behind the premium sector. The J.D. Power EV Index's premium market EV availability score has climbed to 75.1 out of 100, meaning that more than three-fourths of premium market buyers currently own a viable EV alternative to comparable gas-powered vehicles. However, in the mass market, the availability score is only 33, meaning that only one-third of mass market buyers have a viable EV alternative.
Another factor slowing mass market EV sales is the increasingly stringent eligibility requirements for the federal Clean Vehicle Credit starting in 2024, regarding where vehicle battery components are sourced and manufactured. These restrictions will negatively impact the overall availability of electric vehicles, especially in price-sensitive mainstream markets.
Tesla Delivery Forecasts on Wall Street Are Sinking Rapidly
Wells Fargo's Colin Langan on Wednesday said there'll be zero growth in sales volumes for the electric-vehicle maker this year. And in 2025, it'll be worse yet: volumes will drop.
He actually calls Tesla a growth company with no growth. He's pointing to their sales, the trends that they've seen play out over the last couple of quarters, saying that in the second half of 2023, from the first half, they only saw 3% in sales volumes, 3% growth in sales volumes. Prices were down 5%. Then when you look out to what he's expecting for this year and for next year, he expects sales volumes to be flat this year, and then to actually fall in 2025. So we talk about the fact that the EV market clearly not seeing the demand that many had anticipated.
Deutsche Bank analysts on Monday wrote they expect Tesla to miss consensus estimates "by a wide margin." The firm lowered its delivery Q1 estimate to 427,000, down from 476,000, due to low Model 3 production in the U.S., a slow Cybertruck ramp up and overall weaker EV demand.
Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund, also posted on X that Wall Street's consensus Q1 delivery view is too high. Black estimates Tesla will deliver 425,000 units in Q1, slightly above the 422,875 units Tesla delivered in Q1 2023.
Responding to a follower who suggested price cuts by Tesla to boost sales, Black argued that cutting prices wouldn't be effective since competitors generally match TSLA's price cuts.
Source: Investors, Benzinga
By Moomoo News Yolanda
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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RVLTN : Could it be people are finally broke? And Tesla is not a car company
steady Pom pipi :
70781399 : Idc anymore more poor moo jail time
102956527 : Never believe the analysts . They are short term focused.
Brenda : No they are not but not enough charging stations, plus where are they getting the lithium? And finally if we’d stop seeing pictures of Tesla batteries catching the car of fire, I don’t know why it’s going down. You can’t use a regular fire extinguisher. You need a special one. Then when the battery does give out if it doesn’t catch fire first they are just old that could be over $20,000 not accounting for labor.
151345481 : The electric car craze is over. Tesla ethane
amiable Llama_6295 : Tesla is a ev co. but more as a ai data battery etc counter.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Ev is not exactly environmental friendly as it needs tonnes of lithium to make d battery n not v viable during winter.
Just my 2 cents.
ET Rodriguez : Tesla and Elon Musk need some government backing of some sort to bounce back!
SpyOptionMaster : It will bounce back next week. This 2 weeks just let them short. Get cheap shares why not
Brenda ET Rodriguez : No government backing. They spend too much now.
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