Tesla's Robotaxi Day outlook: directionless autos and humanoid siasun robot&automation.
On Thursday, October 10th, local time, Tesla will hold a "Robotaxi Day" demonstration event at Warner Bros. Studios in Los Angeles. It is expected that Tesla will announce its progress in autonomous driving vehicles and robot technology. For Tesla CEO Elon Musk, he has a challenging task that day: to make investors believe that Tesla is not just an auto manufacturer.
The highly anticipated event was originally scheduled for August, aiming to further emphasize a concept that Tesla has always been promoting: it is primarily a technology company and secondly an auto manufacturer. At the end of September, Musk posted a message on the social platform X titled "We, Robot", stating that this would be "one for the history books". Due to the high expectations for this event, when it was initially postponed, Tesla's stocks suffered a significant blow.
The highly anticipated event was originally scheduled for August, aiming to further emphasize a concept that Tesla has always been promoting: it is primarily a technology company and secondly an auto manufacturer. At the end of September, Musk posted a message on the social platform X titled "We, Robot", stating that this would be "one for the history books". Due to the high expectations for this event, when it was initially postponed, Tesla's stocks suffered a significant blow.
What will Tesla showcase? A major question for Tesla is: it does not have an autonomous taxi system. Since it does not have such a system, what will Tesla showcase? If it only demonstrates a new model using Tesla's FSD, industry media and savvy investors clearly will not consider it a historic event.
Vehicles without steering wheels
There will definitely be a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, beautifully decorated inside, suitable for use as a taxi. It may be like an existing Tesla car without controls, possibly a smaller two-seater, or a luxurious workspace the size of a Cybertruck pickup truck.
Vehicles without steering wheels
There will definitely be a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, beautifully decorated inside, suitable for use as a taxi. It may be like an existing Tesla car without controls, possibly a smaller two-seater, or a luxurious workspace the size of a Cybertruck pickup truck.
But the problem is, it's hard to surprise people because there are already many concept cars and real cars for this purpose. Some 'leaked' models look a lot like the recently released Rimac 'Verne' robot taxi. We have seen small cars and concept cars from Google, Volvo, Toyota, Mercedes, and many other companies. We have also seen larger vehicles with face-to-face seating, spacious interiors, and convenient entry. We hope Tesla can give us a surprise, although it may include many elements we have already seen.
The car may be able to drive on a closed movie set without supervision, allowing people to experience the future. For over 8 years, Musk has been predicting this 'future' to be only about a year away. However, the results have greatly diminished the credibility of his predictions. Many companies have already conducted similar demonstrations (although usually involving lidar). In 2009, Waymo/Google launched a golf cart-based robot taxi service at the Googleplex as their first project, albeit not shown to the public. At that time, Google was still 15 years away from expanding the project.
In addition to a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, there should also be a ride-sharing app that may offer some nice new user experiences. There may also be some interesting new in-car experience demonstrations, as many companies are trying to create concepts for what people might do while riding in autonomous taxis, but the reality is likely to be 'staring at their phones,' much like what people do on Uber and other transportation services.
Another 'one-year' prediction
Musk predicts that Tesla cars will achieve autonomous driving within a year, which has caused ridicule in the industry.
An autonomous vehicle is a car you can sleep in, betting your life on it, which is a very daunting task. Therefore, while Tesla has not come close to achieving this goal, it has not stopped them from saying so.
Therefore, Tesla may only conduct a planned course demonstration at this event, possibly even in the Model 2 or a concept car, and announce its goals once again.
Optimus humanoid robot
The official theme of Robotaxi Day is "We, Robot", indicating that we may see an announcement of Tesla's humanoid robot project. Although past demonstrations have not been impressive, the progress of humanoid robots is usually noteworthy.
The car may be able to drive on a closed movie set without supervision, allowing people to experience the future. For over 8 years, Musk has been predicting this 'future' to be only about a year away. However, the results have greatly diminished the credibility of his predictions. Many companies have already conducted similar demonstrations (although usually involving lidar). In 2009, Waymo/Google launched a golf cart-based robot taxi service at the Googleplex as their first project, albeit not shown to the public. At that time, Google was still 15 years away from expanding the project.
In addition to a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, there should also be a ride-sharing app that may offer some nice new user experiences. There may also be some interesting new in-car experience demonstrations, as many companies are trying to create concepts for what people might do while riding in autonomous taxis, but the reality is likely to be 'staring at their phones,' much like what people do on Uber and other transportation services.
Another 'one-year' prediction
Musk predicts that Tesla cars will achieve autonomous driving within a year, which has caused ridicule in the industry.
An autonomous vehicle is a car you can sleep in, betting your life on it, which is a very daunting task. Therefore, while Tesla has not come close to achieving this goal, it has not stopped them from saying so.
Therefore, Tesla may only conduct a planned course demonstration at this event, possibly even in the Model 2 or a concept car, and announce its goals once again.
Optimus humanoid robot
The official theme of Robotaxi Day is "We, Robot", indicating that we may see an announcement of Tesla's humanoid robot project. Although past demonstrations have not been impressive, the progress of humanoid robots is usually noteworthy.
While this may be a gimmick, Tesla can install modified versions of its FSD stack in its robots, allowing them to drive any car, albeit with a narrower field of view from their cameras, possibly even worse than FSD itself. The most challenging part is manufacturing a robot that can get in and out of cars. However, in a planned course demonstration at a movie venue, this may be safe enough, although not a realistic plan, it will certainly make people talk and feel that it didn't meet expectations.
More useful would be robot charging. Tesla might showcase other new features for their robots, as people also enjoy watching humanoid robot demonstrations.
Robotaxi Promotion
Tesla will definitely promote the advantages of autonomous taxis, as they are a tangible reality, even if not yet achievable. This includes their safety, time-saving, and cost-effectiveness, as well as their ability to restructure traffic and urban form.
Musk has recently been saying that Tesla's real value will come from its robotics technology. There's a lot to unlock, so they will definitely talk about it. This is not surprising for industry insiders, but it is unknown to the majority of the public.
Model 2
Tesla may be heading in a completely different direction, introducing new low-cost electric cars, which fans usually refer to as "Model 2".
It is rumored that the car will be priced between $25,000 and $29,000, cheaper than typical low-end sedans. Despite reports of the project being canceled, Musk has denied it.
This could cause quite a stir and make people forget that they were promised a self-driving taxi.
Siasun Robot&Automation Charging and Wireless Charging
One valuable use of autonomous driving technology is manufacturing self-charging cars. It starts with cars being able to drive slowly towards a charger nearby, possibly only at night. For Tesla, this may be achievable even before the Robotaxi, but it also requires cars to somehow connect to a charger without anyone present.
One method is wireless charging, a technology Tesla has expressed interest in developing. Wireless charging is costly and incurs some losses, but it is very convenient and does not require human intervention. If cars can be perfectly positioned, the losses may be lower. However, wireless charging is not ubiquitous and it will only be slow Level 2 charging, requiring cars to stay for several hours.
Another option is self-plugging. Cars themselves can position correctly without the need for too many mechanical arms to insert the plug. Tesla demonstrated a "snake" plug a few years ago, but robot cars do not need such a thing. Alternatively, to become very cute, Tesla could try to make their humanoid robots able to plug into cars. This is advantageous as it can have a single robot handle all charging stations, even allowing the robot to self-charge, which can be achieved at existing charging stations with minimal modifications.
Autonomous Driving on Highways
Mercedes is selling a car that can automatically drive on congested highways. They have just upgraded it to be able to drive at 60 miles per hour in the right lane with other vehicles. Once the speed reaches 70 miles per hour and it can drive on open roads, this is actually a very valuable feature. Tesla FSD owners would really appreciate this feature if it could be implemented. Tesla can strive in this direction.
Boring Company
Tesla is unlikely to showcase this on a movie studio set, but many wonder why Tesla driving inside Boring Company tunnels is still manual. This is not Tesla's top priority, but hopefully relevant content will be seen at a later time.
Maps or Lidar
Tesla often claims that using detailed maps and lidar sensors is a bad idea.
But all other leading teams are using these, with many already having working robot taxis. Tesla may face a lot of challenges to change its mind.
Tesla's high-risk turn
For years, Musk has sent a strong signal to investors that he intends for Tesla to become a company that is not just an electric car manufacturer.
In 2019, at Tesla's headquarters in Palo Alto at the time, Musk told shareholders that he was confident that by 2020 he would put 1 million self-driving rental cars on the road and carry passengers. Though he missed this final deadline, he has now pushed Tesla into other areas.
In July of this year, Musk wrote on the X platform, "Tesla will have a truly useful low-volume humanoid robot next year" for internal use, and hopes to increase production by 2026, selling it to other companies. In 2022, Tesla first showcased the humanoid robot prototype, "Optimus".
More broadly, Musk may see humanoid robots and self-driving cars as a way for Tesla to create value from AI. After OpenAI co-founder, Musk's rival Sam Altman, released ChatGPT at the end of 2022, this highly publicized AI technology was firmly on Silicon Valley's agenda.
Tesla can seize broader opportunities through robots and AI, and this is not just Musk's belief. Tesla's former AI director, Andrej Karpathy, stated in a recent episode of the "No Priors" podcast that Tesla is not just a simple car company; in his view, cars are basically robots.
Meanwhile, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated in July, "The Tesla AI story could be worth over $1 trillion, the most underestimated AI name."
However, it is worth noting the timing of Tesla's launch of self-driving rental cars. For Tesla, the current time is a challenging one.
Firstly, Tesla cannot escape the sales pressure impacting the entire electric vehicle market. In the first half of this year, Tesla's revenue was $46.8 billion, lower than the $48.3 billion in the same period last year. Despite Tesla's 6.4% year-on-year increase in third-quarter deliveries, its value is still over $600 billion lower than the peak of $1.2 trillion reached in November 2021.
Caspar Rawles, Chief Data Officer of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a company focusing on electric vehicle market prices and supply chain data, said that electric vehicle growth is expected to continue long-term, but recent macroeconomic headwinds have led to a slowdown in growth.
In addition, Musk is entering a market where competitors are ahead. Waymo, a subsidiary of Google's parent company Alphabet, established a partnership with Uber last year. In July, electric auto manufacturer BYD also reached a partnership with Uber to provide globally customers with cars equipped with autonomous driving capabilities. In the Chinese market, Baidu has already deployed a fleet of self-driving taxis named 'Apollo Go.'
Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and a shareholder of Tesla, said, "Theoretically, robot taxis can be profitable as long as there isn't too much competition. But the problem is the competition is intense, and it's already on the road."
Finally, there are still concerns about how confident regulatory institutions are in the safety of autonomous taxis. However, no matter what, Musk has a big story to tell on Thursday. Under the Hollywood lights, he hopes that investors can believe in everything just like he does.
More useful would be robot charging. Tesla might showcase other new features for their robots, as people also enjoy watching humanoid robot demonstrations.
Robotaxi Promotion
Tesla will definitely promote the advantages of autonomous taxis, as they are a tangible reality, even if not yet achievable. This includes their safety, time-saving, and cost-effectiveness, as well as their ability to restructure traffic and urban form.
Musk has recently been saying that Tesla's real value will come from its robotics technology. There's a lot to unlock, so they will definitely talk about it. This is not surprising for industry insiders, but it is unknown to the majority of the public.
Model 2
Tesla may be heading in a completely different direction, introducing new low-cost electric cars, which fans usually refer to as "Model 2".
It is rumored that the car will be priced between $25,000 and $29,000, cheaper than typical low-end sedans. Despite reports of the project being canceled, Musk has denied it.
This could cause quite a stir and make people forget that they were promised a self-driving taxi.
Siasun Robot&Automation Charging and Wireless Charging
One valuable use of autonomous driving technology is manufacturing self-charging cars. It starts with cars being able to drive slowly towards a charger nearby, possibly only at night. For Tesla, this may be achievable even before the Robotaxi, but it also requires cars to somehow connect to a charger without anyone present.
One method is wireless charging, a technology Tesla has expressed interest in developing. Wireless charging is costly and incurs some losses, but it is very convenient and does not require human intervention. If cars can be perfectly positioned, the losses may be lower. However, wireless charging is not ubiquitous and it will only be slow Level 2 charging, requiring cars to stay for several hours.
Another option is self-plugging. Cars themselves can position correctly without the need for too many mechanical arms to insert the plug. Tesla demonstrated a "snake" plug a few years ago, but robot cars do not need such a thing. Alternatively, to become very cute, Tesla could try to make their humanoid robots able to plug into cars. This is advantageous as it can have a single robot handle all charging stations, even allowing the robot to self-charge, which can be achieved at existing charging stations with minimal modifications.
Autonomous Driving on Highways
Mercedes is selling a car that can automatically drive on congested highways. They have just upgraded it to be able to drive at 60 miles per hour in the right lane with other vehicles. Once the speed reaches 70 miles per hour and it can drive on open roads, this is actually a very valuable feature. Tesla FSD owners would really appreciate this feature if it could be implemented. Tesla can strive in this direction.
Boring Company
Tesla is unlikely to showcase this on a movie studio set, but many wonder why Tesla driving inside Boring Company tunnels is still manual. This is not Tesla's top priority, but hopefully relevant content will be seen at a later time.
Maps or Lidar
Tesla often claims that using detailed maps and lidar sensors is a bad idea.
But all other leading teams are using these, with many already having working robot taxis. Tesla may face a lot of challenges to change its mind.
Tesla's high-risk turn
For years, Musk has sent a strong signal to investors that he intends for Tesla to become a company that is not just an electric car manufacturer.
In 2019, at Tesla's headquarters in Palo Alto at the time, Musk told shareholders that he was confident that by 2020 he would put 1 million self-driving rental cars on the road and carry passengers. Though he missed this final deadline, he has now pushed Tesla into other areas.
In July of this year, Musk wrote on the X platform, "Tesla will have a truly useful low-volume humanoid robot next year" for internal use, and hopes to increase production by 2026, selling it to other companies. In 2022, Tesla first showcased the humanoid robot prototype, "Optimus".
More broadly, Musk may see humanoid robots and self-driving cars as a way for Tesla to create value from AI. After OpenAI co-founder, Musk's rival Sam Altman, released ChatGPT at the end of 2022, this highly publicized AI technology was firmly on Silicon Valley's agenda.
Tesla can seize broader opportunities through robots and AI, and this is not just Musk's belief. Tesla's former AI director, Andrej Karpathy, stated in a recent episode of the "No Priors" podcast that Tesla is not just a simple car company; in his view, cars are basically robots.
Meanwhile, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated in July, "The Tesla AI story could be worth over $1 trillion, the most underestimated AI name."
However, it is worth noting the timing of Tesla's launch of self-driving rental cars. For Tesla, the current time is a challenging one.
Firstly, Tesla cannot escape the sales pressure impacting the entire electric vehicle market. In the first half of this year, Tesla's revenue was $46.8 billion, lower than the $48.3 billion in the same period last year. Despite Tesla's 6.4% year-on-year increase in third-quarter deliveries, its value is still over $600 billion lower than the peak of $1.2 trillion reached in November 2021.
Caspar Rawles, Chief Data Officer of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a company focusing on electric vehicle market prices and supply chain data, said that electric vehicle growth is expected to continue long-term, but recent macroeconomic headwinds have led to a slowdown in growth.
In addition, Musk is entering a market where competitors are ahead. Waymo, a subsidiary of Google's parent company Alphabet, established a partnership with Uber last year. In July, electric auto manufacturer BYD also reached a partnership with Uber to provide globally customers with cars equipped with autonomous driving capabilities. In the Chinese market, Baidu has already deployed a fleet of self-driving taxis named 'Apollo Go.'
Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and a shareholder of Tesla, said, "Theoretically, robot taxis can be profitable as long as there isn't too much competition. But the problem is the competition is intense, and it's already on the road."
Finally, there are still concerns about how confident regulatory institutions are in the safety of autonomous taxis. However, no matter what, Musk has a big story to tell on Thursday. Under the Hollywood lights, he hopes that investors can believe in everything just like he does.
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