Tesla's Robotaxi Day outlook: directionless autos and humanoid siasun robot&automation.
On Thursday, October 10th local time, Tesla will host a "Robotaxi Day" demonstration event at Warner Bros. Studios in Los Angeles. It is expected that Tesla will announce its progress in autonomous driving and robot technology. For Tesla CEO Elon Musk, he will have a challenging task that day: to make investors believe that Tesla is not just an auto manufacturer.
This long-awaited event was originally scheduled for August, aiming to further reinforce a concept that Tesla has been promoting: it is primarily a technology company, and secondarily, an auto manufacturer. At the end of September, Musk posted a message on social platform X titled "We, Robot," stating that this will be "one for the history books." Due to high expectations for this event, when initially postponed, Tesla's stocks took a significant hit.
This long-awaited event was originally scheduled for August, aiming to further reinforce a concept that Tesla has been promoting: it is primarily a technology company, and secondarily, an auto manufacturer. At the end of September, Musk posted a message on social platform X titled "We, Robot," stating that this will be "one for the history books." Due to high expectations for this event, when initially postponed, Tesla's stocks took a significant hit.
What will Tesla showcase? A big question for Tesla is: it does not have a self-driving taxi system. Since it lacks such a system, what will Tesla showcase? If it's just a new model using Tesla's FSD, industry media and savvy investors clearly won't see it as a historic event.
Vehicles without steering wheels
There will definitely be a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, with exquisite interior decor, suitable for use as a taxi. It may be like an existing Tesla car without control devices, possibly a smaller two-seater car, or a luxury workspace the size of a Cybertruck pickup truck.
Vehicles without steering wheels
There will definitely be a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, with exquisite interior decor, suitable for use as a taxi. It may be like an existing Tesla car without control devices, possibly a smaller two-seater car, or a luxury workspace the size of a Cybertruck pickup truck.
The problem is, it's hard to surprise people because there are already many concept cars and real cars designed for this purpose. Some 'leaked' models look very similar to the recently released Rimac 'Verne' robot taxi. We've seen small cars and concept cars from Google, Volvo, Toyota, Mercedes, and many other companies. We've also seen larger vehicles with face-to-face seating, spacious interiors, and convenient entry. We hope Tesla can give us a surprise, although it may contain many elements we've already seen.
The vehicle may be able to drive on closed movie sets without supervision, allowing people to experience the future. For over 8 years, Musk has been predicting this 'future' to be only about a year away. However, the credibility of his predictions has largely been lost. Many companies have conducted similar demonstrations (although they often include lidar). In 2009, Waymo/Google launched a robot taxi service based on golf carts in the Googleplex as their first project, without a public showcase. At that time, Google was 15 years away from expanding the project.
In addition to a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, there should also be a ride-hailing application that may provide some nice new user experiences. There may also be some interesting new in-car experience demos, as many companies are trying to create concepts for what people might do when riding in autonomous taxis, but the reality is likely to be 'staring at the phone,' just like what people do in Uber and other modes of transport.
Another 'one-year' prediction
Musk predicts that Tesla cars will achieve full self-driving within a year, which has caused ridicule in the industry.
An autonomous car is a car you can sleep in, risking your life, which is a very daunting task. Therefore, although Tesla has not come close to achieving this goal, it has not stopped them from saying so.
Therefore, Tesla may only conduct a planned course demonstration at this event, possibly in the Model 2 or concept car, and announce its goals again.
Optimus humanoid robot
The official theme of Robotaxi Day is "We, Robot", indicating that we may see an announcement about Tesla's humanoid robot project. Although past demonstrations have not been impressive, the pace of progress in humanoid robots is usually noteworthy.
The vehicle may be able to drive on closed movie sets without supervision, allowing people to experience the future. For over 8 years, Musk has been predicting this 'future' to be only about a year away. However, the credibility of his predictions has largely been lost. Many companies have conducted similar demonstrations (although they often include lidar). In 2009, Waymo/Google launched a robot taxi service based on golf carts in the Googleplex as their first project, without a public showcase. At that time, Google was 15 years away from expanding the project.
In addition to a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, there should also be a ride-hailing application that may provide some nice new user experiences. There may also be some interesting new in-car experience demos, as many companies are trying to create concepts for what people might do when riding in autonomous taxis, but the reality is likely to be 'staring at the phone,' just like what people do in Uber and other modes of transport.
Another 'one-year' prediction
Musk predicts that Tesla cars will achieve full self-driving within a year, which has caused ridicule in the industry.
An autonomous car is a car you can sleep in, risking your life, which is a very daunting task. Therefore, although Tesla has not come close to achieving this goal, it has not stopped them from saying so.
Therefore, Tesla may only conduct a planned course demonstration at this event, possibly in the Model 2 or concept car, and announce its goals again.
Optimus humanoid robot
The official theme of Robotaxi Day is "We, Robot", indicating that we may see an announcement about Tesla's humanoid robot project. Although past demonstrations have not been impressive, the pace of progress in humanoid robots is usually noteworthy.
While this may be a gimmick, Tesla could install modified versions of their FSD stack in their robots, enabling them to drive any car, albeit with a narrower field of view from their cameras, potentially even worse than FSD itself. The most difficult part is creating a robot that can enter and exit vehicles. However, in a programmed demonstration at a movie set, this may be safe enough, although not a realistic plan, it would certainly generate discussion and leave people feeling it did not meet expectations.
More useful would be robot charging. Tesla may showcase other new features for their robots, as people also enjoy watching humanoid robot demonstrations.
Robotaxi promotion
Tesla will definitely promote the advantages of autonomous taxi services, even though they are not yet fully realized. This includes their safety, time-saving, cost-effectiveness, and their ability to reshape transportation and urban morphology.
Musk has recently been mentioning that Tesla's true value will come from its robotics technology. There are many things to unlock, so they will certainly talk about it. This is not surprising for industry insiders, but it is largely unknown to the general public.
Model 2
Tesla may be heading in a completely different direction, launching a new low-cost electric car, often referred to by fans as "Model 2".
Reportedly, the car is priced between $25,000 and $29,000, cheaper than typical low-end sedans. Despite reports of the project being canceled, Musk has denied it.
This could cause a major stir, causing people to forget they were promised a self-driving taxi.
Robotic charging and wireless charging.
A valuable use of autonomous driving technology is to manufacture self-charging cars. This starts with cars being able to drive slowly towards a charger, perhaps just crawling at night. For Tesla, this could have been achieved even before the Robotaxi. However, it also requires cars to somehow connect to the charger without anyone present.
One way is wireless charging, a technology Tesla has indicated it is developing. Wireless charging is expensive and incurs some losses, but it is very convenient and requires no human intervention. If cars can be perfectly positioned, losses may be lower. However, wireless charging is not ubiquitous, and it would only be a slow Level 2 charge, requiring cars to stay for several hours.
Another option is self-plugging. Cars can position themselves accurately without the need for many mechanical arms to insert a plug. Tesla showcased a "snake" charger a few years ago, but robotic cars do not need such a setup. Alternatively, to be cute, Tesla could attempt to make their humanoid robots capable of plugging into cars. This is advantageous as it could have one robot handle all the charging stations, even allowing the robot to self-charge, achievable at existing charging stations without much modification.
Autonomous driving on highways.
Mercedes is selling a car that can automatically drive on congested highways. They have just upgraded it to be able to travel at 60 miles per hour in the right lane with other vehicles. Once the speed reaches 70 miles per hour and it can drive on open roads, this is actually a very valuable feature. If Tesla FSD owners could achieve this, they would love this feature. Tesla can strive in this direction.
Boring Company
It is unlikely that Tesla will showcase this at a movie studio, but many people wonder why Teslas still require manual driving in Boring Company tunnels. This is not Tesla's top priority, but hopefully relevant content will be seen in the future.
Maps or Lidar
Tesla often claims that using detailed maps and lidar sensors is a bad idea.
But all other leading teams are using these, many of which already have working robot taxis. Tesla might have a hard time changing their minds.
Tesla's high-risk turn
Over the years, Musk has sent a strong signal to investors indicating that he intends to develop Tesla into a company that is not just an electric car manufacturer.
In 2019, at Tesla's headquarters in Palo Alto at the time, Musk told shareholders that he was confident he would have 1 million self-driving taxis on the road by 2020, carrying passengers. Although he missed that deadline, he has now pushed Tesla into other areas.
This July, Musk wrote on the X platform, "Tesla will have truly useful low-volume humanoid robots next year" for internal use, with plans to increase production by 2026 and sell them to other companies. In 2022, Tesla first showcased the humanoid robot prototype named "Optimus".
More broadly, Musk may see humanoid robots and self-driving cars as a way for Tesla to create value from AI. Following the release of ChatGPT by OpenAI co-founder and Musk rival Sam Altman at the end of 2022, this hyped technology has firmly placed AI on Silicon Valley's agenda.
Tesla can seize broader opportunities through robots and AI, and this is not just Musk's belief. Former Tesla AI Director Andrej Karpathy recently stated on the "No Priors" podcast that Tesla is not just a simple car company; in his view, cars are essentially robots.
Meanwhile, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in July also stated: "Tesla's AI story could be worth over $1 trillion, making it the most undervalued name in AI."
However, it is worth noting the timing of Tesla's launch of self-driving taxis. For Tesla, this is currently a challenging moment.
Firstly, Tesla cannot escape the sales pressure impacting the entire electric vehicle market. In the first half of this year, Tesla's revenue was $46.8 billion, lower than the $48.3 billion in the same period last year. Despite a 6.4% year-on-year increase in Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter, its value is still over $600 billion lower than the peak of $1.2 trillion reached in November 2021.
Caspar Rawles, Chief Data Officer of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a company in the industry focusing on electric vehicle market prices and supply chain data, stated that electric vehicle growth is expected to continue long-term, but recent macroeconomic headwinds have led to a slowdown in the growth rate.
In addition, Musk is entering a market where competitors are leading. Waymo, a subsidiary of Google's parent company Alphabet, established a partnership with Uber last year. In July, electric auto manufacturers BYD also partnered with Uber to provide globally customers with cars equipped with autonomous driving capabilities. In the Chinese market, Baidu has deployed a fleet of autonomous taxis called "Apollo Go".
Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and a shareholder of Tesla, said: "In theory, robot taxis can be profitable as long as there isn't too much competition. But the problem is that the competition is fierce, and it's already on the road."
Lastly, there are still doubts about how confident regulatory institutions are in the safety of autonomous taxis. But regardless, Musk has a big story to tell on Thursday. In the spotlight of Hollywood, he hopes investors can believe everything as he does.
More useful would be robot charging. Tesla may showcase other new features for their robots, as people also enjoy watching humanoid robot demonstrations.
Robotaxi promotion
Tesla will definitely promote the advantages of autonomous taxi services, even though they are not yet fully realized. This includes their safety, time-saving, cost-effectiveness, and their ability to reshape transportation and urban morphology.
Musk has recently been mentioning that Tesla's true value will come from its robotics technology. There are many things to unlock, so they will certainly talk about it. This is not surprising for industry insiders, but it is largely unknown to the general public.
Model 2
Tesla may be heading in a completely different direction, launching a new low-cost electric car, often referred to by fans as "Model 2".
Reportedly, the car is priced between $25,000 and $29,000, cheaper than typical low-end sedans. Despite reports of the project being canceled, Musk has denied it.
This could cause a major stir, causing people to forget they were promised a self-driving taxi.
Robotic charging and wireless charging.
A valuable use of autonomous driving technology is to manufacture self-charging cars. This starts with cars being able to drive slowly towards a charger, perhaps just crawling at night. For Tesla, this could have been achieved even before the Robotaxi. However, it also requires cars to somehow connect to the charger without anyone present.
One way is wireless charging, a technology Tesla has indicated it is developing. Wireless charging is expensive and incurs some losses, but it is very convenient and requires no human intervention. If cars can be perfectly positioned, losses may be lower. However, wireless charging is not ubiquitous, and it would only be a slow Level 2 charge, requiring cars to stay for several hours.
Another option is self-plugging. Cars can position themselves accurately without the need for many mechanical arms to insert a plug. Tesla showcased a "snake" charger a few years ago, but robotic cars do not need such a setup. Alternatively, to be cute, Tesla could attempt to make their humanoid robots capable of plugging into cars. This is advantageous as it could have one robot handle all the charging stations, even allowing the robot to self-charge, achievable at existing charging stations without much modification.
Autonomous driving on highways.
Mercedes is selling a car that can automatically drive on congested highways. They have just upgraded it to be able to travel at 60 miles per hour in the right lane with other vehicles. Once the speed reaches 70 miles per hour and it can drive on open roads, this is actually a very valuable feature. If Tesla FSD owners could achieve this, they would love this feature. Tesla can strive in this direction.
Boring Company
It is unlikely that Tesla will showcase this at a movie studio, but many people wonder why Teslas still require manual driving in Boring Company tunnels. This is not Tesla's top priority, but hopefully relevant content will be seen in the future.
Maps or Lidar
Tesla often claims that using detailed maps and lidar sensors is a bad idea.
But all other leading teams are using these, many of which already have working robot taxis. Tesla might have a hard time changing their minds.
Tesla's high-risk turn
Over the years, Musk has sent a strong signal to investors indicating that he intends to develop Tesla into a company that is not just an electric car manufacturer.
In 2019, at Tesla's headquarters in Palo Alto at the time, Musk told shareholders that he was confident he would have 1 million self-driving taxis on the road by 2020, carrying passengers. Although he missed that deadline, he has now pushed Tesla into other areas.
This July, Musk wrote on the X platform, "Tesla will have truly useful low-volume humanoid robots next year" for internal use, with plans to increase production by 2026 and sell them to other companies. In 2022, Tesla first showcased the humanoid robot prototype named "Optimus".
More broadly, Musk may see humanoid robots and self-driving cars as a way for Tesla to create value from AI. Following the release of ChatGPT by OpenAI co-founder and Musk rival Sam Altman at the end of 2022, this hyped technology has firmly placed AI on Silicon Valley's agenda.
Tesla can seize broader opportunities through robots and AI, and this is not just Musk's belief. Former Tesla AI Director Andrej Karpathy recently stated on the "No Priors" podcast that Tesla is not just a simple car company; in his view, cars are essentially robots.
Meanwhile, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in July also stated: "Tesla's AI story could be worth over $1 trillion, making it the most undervalued name in AI."
However, it is worth noting the timing of Tesla's launch of self-driving taxis. For Tesla, this is currently a challenging moment.
Firstly, Tesla cannot escape the sales pressure impacting the entire electric vehicle market. In the first half of this year, Tesla's revenue was $46.8 billion, lower than the $48.3 billion in the same period last year. Despite a 6.4% year-on-year increase in Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter, its value is still over $600 billion lower than the peak of $1.2 trillion reached in November 2021.
Caspar Rawles, Chief Data Officer of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a company in the industry focusing on electric vehicle market prices and supply chain data, stated that electric vehicle growth is expected to continue long-term, but recent macroeconomic headwinds have led to a slowdown in the growth rate.
In addition, Musk is entering a market where competitors are leading. Waymo, a subsidiary of Google's parent company Alphabet, established a partnership with Uber last year. In July, electric auto manufacturers BYD also partnered with Uber to provide globally customers with cars equipped with autonomous driving capabilities. In the Chinese market, Baidu has deployed a fleet of autonomous taxis called "Apollo Go".
Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and a shareholder of Tesla, said: "In theory, robot taxis can be profitable as long as there isn't too much competition. But the problem is that the competition is fierce, and it's already on the road."
Lastly, there are still doubts about how confident regulatory institutions are in the safety of autonomous taxis. But regardless, Musk has a big story to tell on Thursday. In the spotlight of Hollywood, he hopes investors can believe everything as he does.
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