Tesla up more than 41% in one month! What are the upcoming focus events?

Recently, Tesla released the 13th version of FSD. Musk quoted Elluswamy's tweet and directly commented, 'Amazing!' Musk had previously stated that FSD V13 is expected to improve performance by more than 5 times compared to V12.5.5.3.

Tesla's self-driving engineer Alex K. Sreider points out that the latest update includes significant improvements, allowing vehicles to transport passengers from one parking lot to another (P2P) using this version's end-to-end network of FSD.

● Unveiling of the new design of Optimus
Recently, Tesla has been improving the design of Optimus the robot and making efforts to resolve important bottlenecks in the production process. Mr. Musk stated, "Optimus is already performing several tasks in the factory, and its capabilities are rapidly expanding. Currently, the most challenging part is to improve the design of Optimus to make it easier to manufacture."

On November 28, the official account of Tesla's robot announced a new update, and in the video, Optimus was shown catching stable thrown tennis balls and bending fingers relatively flexibly. This clever hand is the most remarkable feature of Tesla's second-generation Optimus.

Tesla's Optimus engineer, Milan Kovac, praised the latest clever hand as a "groundbreaking achievement" and explained that compared to the previous generation's product, this new hand and forearm have twice the degrees of freedom, with 22 degrees of freedom in the hand and 3 in the wrist and forearm. According to Kovac, this video was conducted in real-time via remote operation in the lab, and Tesla plans to manufacture robots with the new clever hand soon.

In December, attention will be focused on the new design of Optimus and the progress in its use in the factory.

●Cybertruck.
Since mid-August, Tesla has stopped taking orders for the lowest-priced $61,000 electric pickup truck Cybertruck and has made the higher-priced model of $100,000 immediately available for order. Industry analysts point out that this adjustment indicates an excess inventory of the higher-priced version of Cybertruck, suggesting that demand is lower than expected.

Whether the affordable version of the Cybertruck will be sold again at the end of the year has become the focus of investors' attention. Additionally, it is also an important concern whether the weekly production capacity of the Cybertruck will reach 2,500 units, and Tesla announced at the 2024 shareholders' meeting that the weekly production capacity of the Cybertruck would be 1,300 units, aiming to increase it to 2,500 units by the end of the year.

However, recent news has affected market optimism. Tesla notified employees on the Cybertruck production line at the Austin factory that they would have a 3-day break from Tuesday to Thursday. According to workers on the Cybertruck production line, since late October, the schedule has been unstable, with many being sent home after work or asked to undergo additional training or cleaning. These signs may suggest a beginning decrease in Cybertruck demand.

●Q4 delivery data and performance.
To achieve the 2024 annual sales target, Tesla has extended the deadline for the 5-year 0% interest finance plan for some models of Model 3 and Model Y until December 31. This campaign started in July this year and marks the fifth extension.

From the first quarter to the third quarter of this year, Tesla delivered a total of 1.294 million units, a 2% decrease from the same period last year. Mr. Musk predicts that Tesla's 2024 annual sales will achieve positive growth, with a sales target of at least 0.51 million units in the fourth quarter, which is more than 0.03 million units higher than the same period last year. This figure is expected to be announced on the 2nd of next month.

Tesla is scheduled to announce the Q4 and 2024 annual performance next month, with Mr. Musk's presentation of sales forecasts for the budget model in the last Q3 earnings call becoming one of the focal points for investors next year.

Tesla's revenue in the third quarter increased by 8% year-on-year but fell below expectations. However, there were surprises in terms of profitability, with the gross margin increasing by 195 basis points year-on-year to 19.8%. The gross margin of the vehicle business surpassed expectations and reached 17.1%. Additionally, carbon credit revenue increased by over 30% year-on-year, reaching a quarterly record. The gross margin for the energy storage business in the third quarter reached 30.5%, marking a record high.

●FSD (full self-driving)
On September 5, Tesla AI announced on social media 'X' that Tesla plans to introduce 'Full Self-Driving' (FSD) in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2024.

According to sources, the Chinese government is supporting the advanced testing of some FSD functions while complying with current laws and regulations, but the introduction of FSD in China is still pending regulatory approval. Mr. Musk has applied to provide some video data for system training to relevant authorities and promised that these data will be rigorously reviewed. Whether FSD will be introduced in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year will be the focus of investor attention.

Stifel analyst has raised Tesla's target stock price to $411 and stated that Tesla's AI-based FSD capabilities have 'significant' potential, promoting Mr. Musk's robotaxi concept.

●Super energy storage plant in Shanghai
Tesla's Energy Storage Super Factory, a project completed in the Shanghai Lingang New Area on April 9, 2023, plans to produce Tesla's ultra-large commercial energy storage battery 'Megapack', with an initial annual production plan of 0.01 million units and a storage capacity reaching 40GWh, intended for supply to the global market. Tesla's Energy Storage Super Factory project has started production testing this month and is scheduled to officially start mass production in the first quarter of 2025.

Investors are paying attention to the progress of Tesla's FSD, especially the impact it will have on the future introduction of robotaxis. According to Yun Ta Tsai, a member of the Tesla AI team, the new FSD V13 is described as the 'most significant rewrite in the four years since we started the photon counting journey,' and the evolution from V12 to V13 is said to be much greater than the improvement from V11 to V12. Tsai likened the clarity and performance of V13 to the Raptor Engine V3 installed on SpaceX's Starship.

During Tesla's third-quarter earnings call, Musk expressed the expectation to achieve fully autonomous and unsupervised FSD for Model 3 and Model Y in California and Texas by next year. The updated FSD V13 is expected to reduce driver interventions by one-sixth, potentially accelerating the introduction of Tesla's robotaxi service.

In light of this progress, Stifel significantly raised Tesla's target price from $287 to $411, maintaining a Buy rating and emphasizing that Tesla is 'not just an auto manufacturer.' Stifel highlights to investors that Tesla's AI-based full self-driving technology and Cybercab robotaxi's value creation potential are the basis of its optimistic outlook.

Furthermore, Ross MKD upgraded Tesla's rating from Neutral to Buy, raising the target price from $85 to $380. They note that Musk's 'genuine support for Trump doubled Tesla's fan base and increased confidence in the shift in demand.' In the transformative global environment, the importance of Tesla's primary AI goal to develop an intelligent copilot that can handle much more complex situations than competing products is acknowledged. They also mention that Tesla's Cyber Taxi initiative is poised to benefit from more favorable regulatory environments.