Tesla stalls, Toyota and Honda are winners with hybrid cars! Go to a decisive battle with your strong enemy BYD! Are stock prices undervalued due to high yen prices? [Summary of financial results]

Although the sales volume of units sold by Toyota and Honda split in the same period last year, they knocked out the highest operating profit ever for the first quarter. Meanwhile,Nissan's operating profit declined drastically, and the full-year profit forecast was revised downwardDoing it.

What is the difference between victory and defeat is a hybrid car
The characteristic of Toyota, Honda, and BYD, which became the winning team, is that hybrid cars (BYD is a plug-in hybrid vehicle) have strengths. Issues such as the fact that subsidies etc. from various countries of the world have gone round for EVs (electric vehicles), the fact that charging facilities are not sufficiently developed, and issues such as charging time and cruising range that can be driven on a single charge have come to light, and hybrid vehicles have come to be reviewed instead. Hybrid cars are at the same level as gasoline cars in terms of profitability, and since they can be priced higher than gasoline cars,A “dollar box” at the momentIt can also be said.

Toyota's sales volume increased by 20% or more when looking at hybrid vehicles aloneDoing it.The ratio of hybrid cars to all sales vehicles increased 7.8 points from the same period last year to less than 40%It has reached. The number of units sold domestically decreased due in part to the effects of certification fraud issues, but the ratio of all cars sold has risen to close to 60%.
Honda's share of hybrid cars has declined slightly in global sales,The number of units sold domestically increased drastically by 85%, and is close to 40% of all cars soldIt occupied.Domestic operating profit increased 27.1% in the same period last yearIt showed high growth exceeding 22.3% in North America, where there was an exchange effect, and hybrid vehicles contributed greatly to the increase in profit.
In response to this, BYD is rapidly increasing sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles that can also be charged.The ratio of plug-in hybrid vehicles to all sales vehicles increased 6.9 points from the same period last year, exceeding 50%. BYD has a strong image of an EV, but it firmly responds to users' needs for hybrid vehicles.

Will the benefits of the depreciation of the yen end in Q1
Another positive factor in the first quarter results is the depreciation of the yen, which has continued to benefit from the previous fiscal year. Since the dollar yen rate depreciated by about 19 yen compared to the same period last year,Toyota boosted operating profit by 370 billion yen, Honda by 47.5 billion yen, and Nissan by 23.7 billion yen。
However, due to the rapid shift in yen appreciation from mid-July onwards,There is a possibility that the depreciation effect of the yen will fall off after the second quarterThere is. The dollar yen rate is currently around 1 dollar = 147 yen, and if further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan or interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are implemented or factored into the market, further appreciation of the yen is also expected.
From the 2nd quarter onwardsThe estimated rates for each company remained unchanged at 145 yen for Toyota and 140 yen for Honda, but Nissan changed it from 145 yen to 155 yen when financial results for the first quarter were announcedI did it. As an effect of the company's exchange and raw materialsThe full-year operating profit forecast was revised upward by 80 billion yen, but there is a possibility that operating profit will decline depending on exchange rate movementsThere is.

Difficulties in China and intensifying competition in the US weigh on profits
What became clear in the first quarterDifficulties in China and intensifying competition in the USIt's an effect of Regarding the Chinese market, Honda's Executive Officer and Managing CFO Fujimura Eiji said in the financial results announcementProduction capacity is “clear that it is excessive capacity,” and “the discount situation at other companies is at a level that slightly exceeds our expectations.”I said.
In the United States, in addition to intensifying competition, concerns about economic recession have surfaced, and it can be said that the situation from the second quarter onwards is unpredictable.

Toyota's sales in North America increased 22.2% from the same period last year, while operating profit decreased 28.9%. The operating profit margin has declined from 3.0% to 2.0%,Earning power is weakening. The number of units sold per month also split from 24/6 to the same month of the previous year since 23/4. In China, the number of units sold in the first quarter decreased 17.8% from the same period last year, and operating profit decreased 16.8%.
Honda's sales volume in China dropped drastically by 32.4% compared to the same period last year,The forecast for full-year sales volume in China was revised downward by 0.22 millionI did it. Two joint venture factories in China will be closed and suspended this fall, and it is reported that the policy is to reduce production capacity in China by 0.29 million units, which is about 20% (Sankei Shimbun dated 7/25).
Nissan is bigAs for the reason for the decline in operating profit, it is cited that intensification of competition and an increase in sales expenses, mainly in the US and China, had an impact. As for the breakdown of the reduction in operating income, which decreased by 127.6 billion yen compared to the same period last year, sales volume and sales structure accounted for 34.9 billion yen, and sales expenses and price revisions accounted for 77.8 billion yen. It is reported that the company closed its Changzhou plant in China in June and reduced its production capacity by 0.13 million units, which is about 10% of its production capacity in China (Asahi Shimbun dated 6/21).
Controlling unit sales volume and operating profit margins in both the US and China, which are the world's two largest markets, is expected to have a big impact on business results from the second quarter onwards.

Feeling undervalued due to sluggish stock prices?
While there are concerns such as the declining effects of the depreciation of the yen and intensification of competition between the US and China,Currently, stock prices have fallen drastically, so it seems that it can be seen that there is a sense of undervaluationThat's it.

After the major stock price crash on 8/2 and 5, domestic big 3 stock prices have not fully recovered, and almost all of the year-to-date increases have been spewed out.Even Toyota has divided the PBR by 1 times, and Honda, which is proceeding with the improvement of the 1 times split, has dropped to about 0.5 timesI'm doing it. When it came to Nissan, it dropped to 0.26 times. Compared to competitors Tesla and BYD, the sense of cheapness stands out.
Nonetheless, since evaluations change depending on the extent to which downside risks to business performance are anticipated, it will also be necessary to determine future developments.