Tesla Q3 2024 Earnings Views and Outlook

1) Tesla is the world's largest battery electric vehicle (BEV) seller in Q3 2024

Tesla delivered a total of 462,890 vehicles in Q3 2024, comprised of 439,975 Model 3/Y and 22,915 Model S/Model X/Cybertruck/Semi. These numbers were enough for Tesla to become the world’s largest seller of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Q3 2024, exceeding Chinese automaker BYD. In the same period, BYD sold 443,426 BEVs.

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2) Tesla Q3 Deliveries At 463K +6.4% YoY and +4.3% QoQ

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3.1 Automotive Revenue increases modestly YoY driven by Cybertruck and volume with partial offset by pricing.

3.2 Energy generation and storage segment revenue up 39% YoY driven by significant energy storage deployments.

3.3 Total Revenue expected to increase 5.7% YoY in Q3 but decrease by 3.2% QoQ driven by lower energy deployments.

3.4 Net Income decrease primarily driven by lower energy storage deployments and lower credit sales.
3.5 EPS expected to decrease by 4% QoQ and 25% YoY to $0.50 per share implying a true P/E of 95x as of January.

3.6 Free Cash Flow (FCF) QoQ reduction driven by lack of significant inventory unwind compared to Q2 and continuing high capex spending.

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4) My Take

4.1 I have mixed feelings about this earnings. Wall Street will focus mainly on the downtrend pressure on the automotive delivery and revenue. On the bright side, Tesla is still the top BEVs sellers despite what legacy media has predicted otherwise (beat BYD).

4.2 The  recent Tesla robotaxi unveiled event (10 October) and the breakthrough in FSD V12 technology didn't impress investors and reflected negatively in share performance. Tesla bears (and haters) still view Tesla as only a car maker and argue that the company is unprofitable based on EPS and PE ratio.

4.3 Tesla share price is -12.0% YTD and +3.1% in 1 year. The stock is one of the most "shorted" in the US market. I think most Tesla shareholders and owners are not so concerned about the short term volatility risk. It really depends on what you want to believe. If you want to swing trade, please DYODD.