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$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Here's a reality check Gene Munster, Ron ...
Gene Munster, Ron Barron, Brad Gerstner
These are the top Tesla analysts money managers that are dialed in better than anybody else to real-time daily events.
all three have visited the factories all three talk with Elon Musk all three know how to rip apart financial six ways from Sunday and all three understand the future of the company they understand the value that each potential division whether it's autonomous robo taxi Optimus will potentially add in the short intermediate and long-term.
Every one of them were pounding the table saying that Tesla would exceed delivery numbers.
They all gave their reasons, I put these three right at the top of the list for understanding short term trends 3 months 6 months and also multi-year.
Dan Ives is a big picture thinker I talked about that earlier today he is not a technical analyst he doesn't look at charts he doesn't look at spreadsheets he looks at where the market will be going for their product their service what is the evolution and what will that translate to in a big number to the industry and to the company.
Dan Ives has never has said take profits, sell half your position, buy puts, sell calls and hedge that's not what he does.
Of the first three that I mentioned Gene Munster was on this week several times on every business station, and Brad did a piece on x you can go watch it at your convenience talking about why they would exceed delivery numbers.
at the end of the day what happened?
every one of them were wrong and these are the best of the best.
which means I was wrong, because I look to people that I think are smarter than me brighter than me more dialed in because that's what they do.
I went on to X as well as regular email and I sent all of them a message. I was polite (I know some of you are laughing right now because I've been described as very rough around the edges but I know when to be polite) and I asked if you could please explain how it will be possible that Tesla will have 30% growth in EV sales this year when they didn't make numbers on delivery 4th quarter and it was the first year of a decline year over year.
I obviously don't expect a response directly my hopes are that they will go on to X and elaborate on this topic.
the reality check even the brightest analyst money managers that get every last bit of information in real time understand how to digest it are experts at reading every financial statement have been way more right than wrong from historical performance...
can be wrong in a big way.
I suspect in the coming days the tap dancing will begin. not one of them will admit that they were wrong they all will justify the sell-off with an elaborate explanation but they'll never admit they're wrong.
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37+ yrs in the trenches, raised 100mil for start ups, syndicate ipo's, yrs on trading desk mkt maker.
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72564072 : Back to green tomorrow
TWIMO (151403908) : Ron Barron took a bet and struck gold. Made him look good but he isn’t very good really.picked the right horse once…
TWIMO (151403908) : BTW, why market use delivery instead of new orders as a measure of growth?
10baggerbamm OP TWIMO (151403908) : I understand what you're saying he was an early investor however he still is active he speaks to Elon Musk he visits the factories he is better access than probably any analyst has including Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs anybody like that ...as Ron speaks directly to Elon Musk.
TWIMO (151403908) 10baggerbamm OP : I reckon Ron doesn’t have any other horses to bet on. It’s all in on Elon for glory or he dies first…
.. I like his personality though…. always smiling..
10baggerbamm OP TWIMO (151403908) : when you're a billionaire I guess it's easy to smile right? I mean what kind of problems do you have your roof leaking fix it it's 50 Grand go ahead no big deal your car breaks down you know what get me another one what do you want me to do with this one donate it to a charity..