“Tesla (TSLA)” 1Q car deliveries, earnings forecasts, and what is the recovery scenario in terms of NVIDIA?
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Stock prices plummeted after announcing the number of car deliveries for the January-March fiscal year (1Q) on 4/2. However, Tesla stock'sStock price performance in January-March this yearon a quarterly basisThe third rate of decline in the pastIt was recorded. Stock prices have been factored in a slowdown in sales, but it has been shown that it was insufficient.
It was announced on 4/2Number of cars delivered in the 1st quarterIs 386,810 units9% decrease compared to the same period last yearThen, there was a drastic slowdown since the 2020/4/6 fiscal year (2Q).Market expectations449,080 units (Bloomberg tally)It also fell 12% below。
Company sideAt the Fremont plant in California, USAProduction launch of the improved “Model 3” is in the early stagesThat it's in,Ship diversion due to Red Sea disputeYaOperation suspended due to arson at Berlin plant in GermanyIs growth slowing downExplain that it's part of the causeDoing it. It did not touch on the slowdown in demand (concern) that the market is concerned about at all.
Most likely, in addition to the factors indicated by the company side, analystsEffects of slowing demand for EVs and intensifying competitionThe forecast has been revised downward in light of this. The fact that results were significantly lower than expected in spite of that means the effects of the above factorsIt was bigger than expectedIt suggests.
Concerns about Tesla's sluggish EV demand and intensifying competition are often taken up in the Chinese market.Due to intensifying competition in ChinaEach company announced price cuts from the beginning of the year,Sales slowed noticeably for all companies in January-Februaryit's for.
On the other hand,Sales at EV manufacturers unexpectedly recovered in MarchI did it. BYD, the largest EV company, delivered 626,000 new energy vehicles (of which about 300,000 EVs) in March, and turned to a 13% increase compared to the same month last year. Emerging EV manufacturers $Li Auto (LI.US)$ Deliveries of 29,000 units increased 39% over the same period; $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ Deliveries of 12,000 units increased 14% over the same period; $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ There was a 29% increase over the same period with deliveries of 90,000 units.
Tesla isSales data on a monthly basis has not been disclosed, but according to Bloomberg's trial calculation based on values announced by Chinese industry groups, Tesla's MarchShipments to China only increased 0.2% from the same month last year。
Therefore,China risk for TeslaisIntensification of competition is stronger than slowing demandIt seems like I can say that. This is because while companies are competing and introducing new models at more reasonable prices to compete against Tesla, Tesla is compatible with conventional models with a slight price cut. Therefore,It is thought that early introduction of new models (for example, cheap EVs in the 25,000 dollar range) will become important for Tesla。
After Tesla announced the number of car deliveries for the 1st quarter, analystsEarnings revised downwardstood out. When compared to before the announcement of the number of cars delivered on 4/2 and 4/3 (when the report was created),1Q sales were 2%、Adjusted EPS (earnings per share) was revised downward by 4%It was done (Bloomberg tally, same as below).
Note that after the downward correctionData for (4/3)Based on1Q sales increased 1% compared to the same period last year、Adjusted EPS is expected to decrease by 19%That's it. If downward revisions continue in the future, it is also expected that the above ratio will drop further.
Along with earnings forecastsTarget stock prices have also been lowered. Earnings forecasts by analysts andIf target stock price revisions continue, there may be a possibility that stock prices will be pushed down further. Also, similar to the announcement of the number of car deliveries on 4/2, when Tesla announces performance that falls below market expectations in the financial results announcement on 4/23 (planned), there is a possibility that it will be negative material for continuing to stand. On the other hand,When showing an upward trend in performance or outlook compared to lower expectationsisThere is a possibility that it will lead to a review purchaseMaybe.
Many analysts cite slowing demand and intensifying competition in the Chinese market as causes of concern for Tesla.China is one of Tesla's key marketsThat's because it is. For example, Tesla's sales composition ratio by region (fiscal year ending 2023/12) is 46.7% in the US, followed by others including Europe at 30.8%, and China at 22.5%.
On the other hand,Outside of China 7-80%In order to occupy,If the US and Europe are doing well, there is a possibility that China's slowdown could have been offset. Like Tesla, China used to account for 20% of sales composition $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It can be said that this is a good example.
NVIDIA too1 year agoStock prices fall due to concerns about slowing sales in ChinaI did it. thoughAfter that, while major US tech companies all increased AI investment due to the AI boom, NVIDIA rapidly increased sales in the US. From fiscal 2023 (fiscal year ending 2023/1), the United States surpassed China in terms of regional composition ratios. Therefore, the Chinese risk may not be a real risk for Tesla.
The pace of introduction of EVs is not limited to China, but also in Europe and America compared to the initial period of rapid expansion, the pace of introduction has slowed down in the past year.The global EV market is at a crossroadsI can say that. As a background factor,ChinaThen, the subsidy policy will end at the end of 2022 (acquisition tax exemptions continue),EuropeSo the major countries in 2023Examples include discontinuing the subsidy policy。
The United StatesSlower than China and EuropeTax incentives for EVs have been introduced, but restrictions on compatible cars are strict. Therefore, US policy has not boosted EV sales as much as China and Europe, and EVs are stillExpensive prices hinder the spread of EVs. As mentioned above, competitors are successively launching EVs at reasonable prices in China, and they are taking market share from Tesla. Therefore,Tesla progresses with cheap EVsWhen I showed it,Expectations for increased salesIt leads toThere may be a possibility that it will become stock price material.
At the financial results presentation in JanuaryElon Musk CEOisTesla is now between two wavesIt showed recognition. In other words,The wave of global expansion of “Model 3” and “Model Y”andDuring the next wave of growth driven by next-generation autonomous vehicles and fully automated driving using AI technologyThat's it.
“Next-generation autonomous vehicles and fully autonomous driving with AI technology” is also a theme in line with the current AI boom. While the AI boom is booming in the stock market, the fact that Tesla's sense of being late is conspicuous in this field is also causing disappointment among investors. ifTesla is in the “fully automated driving” (FSD) fieldIt showed progress that exceeded expectations,If we show the path towards the next wave of growth, we may be able to regain the reputation of growth stocks once again。
Created April 3, 2024 Market Analyst Amelia
Source: Created by Moomoo Securities based on company materials, Bloomberg, and various press reports
Source: Created by Moomoo Securities based on company materials, Bloomberg, and various press reports
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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kiyo01227 : I don't have excessive expectations from Tesla
181646320 : I can see the future in other businesses where I don't think electric cars have a future, so if you get involved in the electric vehicle business, it becomes an environmental destruction company.
Satellite communication business, x more other business development is necessary
新div : Until the number of units sold is cleared, it's dangerous to pick them up easily.
I don't know if the financial results are Arashi or if they've already been inserted
Is the number of 380,000 units over 2 million units a year a yellow light
With this, you might not be able to expect guidance either.
182458763 : ^_^What Tesla is looking at is probably a world far away!
I think the spacecraft used to go back and forth with artificial satellites such as Optimus and SpaceX are in a different dimension from those up until then. They are daring to do things that no one else can do, such as trying to develop rocket boosters that can take off and land by abolishing physical switches.
I don't think EV manufacturing will get back on track until a little longer, but I think what Tesla is aiming for is making means of transportation free using a minimum grid and autonomous driving. As far as I can see the amount of big data and the state of beta autonomous driving, it may be Tesla that has a high possibility of FSD.
Stock prices are sluggish, but as an individual investor, I would like to support them.