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Tempus AI
-- 52.020 What is the scenario for Tesla's 1Q customer deliveries and performance outlook compared to Nvidia for a potential comeback?
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$plunged after announcing the 1Q customer deliveries on April 2. Nonetheless, the stock performance of Teslaon a quarterly basisquarterly basisRecorded the third highest decline rate in the past.The stock price has been factoring in slowing sales, but it was shown to be insufficient.
Announced on April 2nd.Customer deliveries in 1Q announcedwere 0.38 million 6,810 units, a 9% decrease from the same period last yearmarking a significant slowdown since the April-June 2020 (2Q) quarter.. In response,(Bloomberg calculation) of 0.44 million9,080 unitsfell below by 12%。
The company sidestated that the launch of the improved "Model 3" production at the Freemont factory in California, USA is in its early stages, asIs located in,Ship detours due to the Red Sea conflict.YaOperation halted at the Veru Inc factory in Berlin due to arson.is experiencing slower growth.Explaining that it is part of the reason.However, they completely ignored concerns in the market about slowing demand.
Most analysts, in addition to the factors indicated by the company, pointed to the impact of slowing demand for EVs and intensifying competition.Considering this, we have been revising our financial estimates downward. Nevertheless, the actual results fell significantly below our expectations, indicating the impact of the above-mentioned factors.It suggests that the impact was larger than expected.This implies.
Concerns about the slowdown in Tesla's demand for electric vehicles and intensified competition are often focused on the Chinese market.In China, due to intensified competition.Since the beginning of the year, companies in China have announced price cuts.In January and February, sales slowdown was noticeable for all companies.Because of that.
On the other hand,In March, unexpectedly, sales of EV manufacturers recovered.BYD, the leading EV manufacturer, delivered 0.626 million new energy vehicles in March (including approximately 0.3 million EVs), a 13% increase compared to the same month last year. Emerging EV manufacturers. $Li Auto (LI.US)$ had a 39% increase with 0.029 million deliveries; $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ had a 14% increase with 0.012 million deliveries; $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ increased by 29% with 0.009 million deliveries.
Tesla willAlthough monthly sales data has not been disclosed, according to Bloomberg's estimates based on figures from Chinese industry groups, Tesla's customer deliveries in March China only increased by 0.2% compared to the same month last year.。
Therefore,The risk for Tesla in China competition intensification is stronger than demand weakening.As companies are introducing new models at more affordable prices to compete with Tesla, Tesla is responding with slight price cuts on existing models. Therefore,For Tesla, the early introduction of new vehicle models (such as a budget-friendly EV in the $25,000 range) is considered important.。
After Tesla announced the customer deliveries for 1Q, it was followed by analystsNotable occurrence of earnings downward revision.was noticeable when comparing the customer deliveries announcement on April 2nd with April 3rd (at the time of the report).1Q revenue is 2%.、調整後EPS（1株当たり利益）は4％下方修正された（Bloomberg集計、以下同様）。
なお、下方修正後（4月3日）のデータに基づけば、1Qの売上高は前年同期比で1％増、調整後EPSは19％減になる見通しIn the future, if downward revisions continue, the above ratio is expected to further decrease.
Along with the performance outlookThe target stock price has also been lowered.Analysts' performance outlook andIf performance outlook revisions and target price revisions continue, there may be a greater potential for further downward pressure on the stock price.Furthermore, just like the customer delivery numbers announced on April 2, if Tesla reports earnings below market expectations on April 23 (scheduled), it could remain a persistently negative factor. On the other hand,when demonstrating performance or outlook exceeding low expectations there may be a potential for a reassessment buy. it might be.
As a concern for Tesla, many analysts point out the slowdown in demand and intensifying competition in the Chinese market.China is one of the important markets for tesladue to. For example, Tesla's regional revenue composition ratio (as of December 2023) is 46.7% for the USA, followed by 30.8% for other regions including Europe, and 22.5% for China.
On the other hand,Non-china accounts for 70-80%.To offset the slowing of china, if the USA and european index perform well.There may have been a possibility of offsetting the slowdown in China if the USA and European index were performing well.Like tesla, which once accounted for 20% of revenue from china. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$This is a good example.
Nvidia alsoOne year agoStock prices fell due to concerns over slowing sales in China.However.After that, with the benefit of the AI boom, major US tech companies have increased their AI investments, while NVIDIA has rapidly increased its revenue in the USA.From fiscal year 2023 (January 2023 onwards), the US has surpassed China in terms of regional composition. Therefore, the China risk may not be a true risk for Tesla.
Regarding EVs, not only in China but also in Europe and the USA, the pace of adoption has slowed down in the past year compared to the initial rapid expansion period.The global EV market is at a standstill.As a background factor,ChinaBy the end of 2022, the subsidy policy will end (tax exemptions will continue).European indexIn 2023, major countries.It can be cited that the subsidy policy was terminated.。
The United StatesLater than China and European indexesIntroduced tax incentives for EVs, but the restrictions on corresponding cars are strictTherefore, US policies are not boosting EV sales as much as China and Europe, and EVs are stillbeing hindered by their high cost, which is hindering the spread of EVs.As mentioned earlier, China is launching competing EVs at affordable prices and taking market share from Tesla. Therefore,when Tesla makes progress with low-cost EVs, it may lead toexpansion in sales, potentially becoming a stock price driver.Expectations for sales growthmay lead to becoming a stock price driver.it may become a stock price driver.
At the earnings reports meeting in January,CEO Elon Musk Tesla is currently in between two waves,meaning thatthe waves of global expansion of 'Model 3' and 'Model Y'.The deviation from the closing price of 2,371 yen on the 9th is about Amid the next wave of growth driven by next-generation self-driving cars and AI technology leading to fully autonomous driving.Yes.
"Next-generation self-driving cars and AI technology leading to fully autonomous driving" is indeed a theme in line with the current AI boom. In the stock market where the AI boom is raging, Tesla's apparent lag in this field is attracting disappointment from investors. If Tesla demonstrates better-than-expected progress in the "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) field and indicates a roadmap for the next wave of growth, it may be able to regain the honor of being a growth stock.Tesla delivers better-than-expected progress in the "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) field,andit may be able to regain the honor of being a growth stock in preparation for the next wave of growth.。
Created on April 3, 2024
Market Analyst Amelia
Source: Compiled by moomoo Securities based on company data, Bloomberg, and various reports.
Source: Compiled by moomoo Securities based on company data, Bloomberg, and various reports.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Ask a strategist - Trump's first day
kiyo01227 : I don't have excessive expectations from Tesla
181646320 : I can see the future in other businesses where I don't think electric cars have a future, so if you get involved in the electric vehicle business, it becomes an environmental destruction company.
Satellite communication business, x more other business development is necessary
新div : Until the number of units sold is cleared, it's dangerous to pick them up easily.
I don't know if the financial results are Arashi or if they've already been inserted
Is the number of 380,000 units over 2 million units a year a yellow light
With this, you might not be able to expect guidance either.
182458763 : ^_^What Tesla is looking at is probably a world far away!
I think the spacecraft used to go back and forth with artificial satellites such as Optimus and SpaceX are in a different dimension from those up until then. They are daring to do things that no one else can do, such as trying to develop rocket boosters that can take off and land by abolishing physical switches.
I don't think EV manufacturing will get back on track until a little longer, but I think what Tesla is aiming for is making means of transportation free using a minimum grid and autonomous driving. As far as I can see the amount of big data and the state of beta autonomous driving, it may be Tesla that has a high possibility of FSD.
Stock prices are sluggish, but as an individual investor, I would like to support them.