TF Securities Expects BABA's 1FQ Non-GAAP NP to Fall 6% YoY, Dual Listing Conversion to be Completed in Aug

TF Securities forecasted Alibaba to deliver revenue of RMB248.8 billion in 1QFY25, up 6.2% YoY; adjusted EBITA of RMB40.5 billion, a YoY drop of 10.8%; EBITA margin of 16.3%; and non-GAAP net profit of RMB42.1 billion, a YoY slip of 6%.

Revenue from Taobao and Tmall Group is expected to increase by 2.8% YoY; Alibaba Cloud by 4.8% YoY; international commerce by 34.7% YoY; and local life by 11.1% YoY. Cainiao revenue is estimated to grow by 28.1% YoY. Digital Media and Entertainment revenue is expected to decrease by 5%.

Alibaba disclosed it aims to complete the conversion to a dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by the end of August. TF Securities revised its revenue forecasts for FY2025-27 to RMB 1.0249 trillion, RMB1.1236 trillion, and RMB 1.2193 trillion, representing YoY growth of 9%, 10%, and 9%, respectively. The Buy rating was maintained.