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Sunk, sunk, sunk.

I didn't understand the relationship between long and short interest rates 🤮🤮🤮
There is a high possibility that TMF will make profits in scenarios with a low probability.
As a premise, there is no point in buying long-term bonds if it is not a sequence yield.
In fact, short-term corporate bonds are selling better.
So, what would it take to become a top yield? What do you all think? Don't you think it's long? If there's a possibility, I think it's different if we continue to run in an optimistic market and suddenly have a recession where we fall off a cliff.
Now that we are running on the almost track route, any tax cuts or tariff measures would increase inflationary pressures. The downgrade of US bonds and the demand for further risk premiums on long-term bonds carry the risk of rising.
My acquisition cost is 58, and I've been at a loss all along, but the scenario for making a profit is not very certain and the duration should not be long.
If you hold on to it for a long time, it will decrease,
I completely missed it.
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  • ただ好き OP : sequential yield → sequential yield

    incidentally
    I was aiming for a profit of 50% or more within 1 year.

  • アマチュア投資家 : There is a sign that inflation is likely to subside, and I think long-term bonds will see the light of day someday, but in the absence of rapid interest rate cuts, it is my opinion that the time for popularity to concentrate on stocks bought ahead of expectations will be a considerable period of time. I've been thinking about it for a while, but it means that only a hard landing is a scenario where bonds skyrocket. There is no reason for the Fed to cut interest rates drastically in the current situation. There were also voices saying that 3/11 was an opportunity... but to be honest, I think they are optimistic. Of course, no one knows the future, so it is necessary to choose leveraged products taking risk into account and constantly monitor them. From the end of the year to the New Year holidays, I steered to growth with good financial results for semiconductors such as NVDA, SMH, and SOXL, etc., and CRWD, DUOL, etc., so things are going well so far, but after all, the core is VTI, and I have MMF waiting for a minimum amount of money in case of a crash.

  • ただ好き OP : I agree with you. I agree that only a hard landing is a scenario where debt skyrockets.

  • yamacyan : Around 2015, it was around $200, and the subsequent $600 was an exception, but let's say it won't rise at all this time. Or should I just say that it takes time on an annual basis?
    We haven't done a very thorough investigation here, so I would appreciate it if you could let me know

  • ただ好き OP : Currently, I anticipate that it will take on an annual basis. There are also ownership costs, so it's difficult to calculate that.

  • アマチュア投資家 ただ好き OP : I think it's wonderful to be observed from a flat perspective. I'm also transitioning to high technology now, but if the Fed falls into a situation where it is forced to cut interest rates urgently, I think I'll come back here. After all, no one knows what the future holds, and we have no choice but to fight while changing opinions flexibly, or put time on our side even with a modest index.

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