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-- 99.260 "US interest rate cut trade" Part 6! Buffett is also paying attention, the revival of US real estate stocks! The strongest investment opportunity in the era of interest rate cuts?
米国株式市場は9月に入り、投資家にとって波乱の幕開けとなった。8月の非農業部門雇用者数が予想以上に労働市場の冷え込みを示唆し、景気減速への懸念を高めたとともに、リスク志向を抑制したためである。米FRBが利下げを示唆する中、不動産市場は好転の兆しを見せている。8月下旬の住宅ローン金利は2023年5月以来の低水準に落ち込んだ。FRBによる利下げが早ければ今月末にも実施され、住宅ローン金利のさらなる低下を促す場合、不動産市場にさらなる勢いをもたらす可能性Exists.
During the high interest rate period in the past two years, real estate stocks in the USA were heavily impacted. However, with the Federal Reserve (FRB) ending its rate hike cycle and transitioning to rate cuts, the 'underperformers' in the US stock market have the potential to quickly become 'outperformers'. Looking at the performance of real estate stocks since the beginning of this year, it seems that rate cuts are already being priced in.
Since mid-April, real estate stocks have shown strong upward momentum. $Real Estate Select Sector Spdr Fund (The) (XLRE.US)$It has achieved a 23% increase, significantly outperforming the approximately 8% increase of [insert name]. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Among real estate investment trusts (REITs), [insert name] has risen 59% year-to-date,
has risen more than 40%, $Iron Mountain (IRM.US)$has risen approximately 29%, $Welltower Inc (WELL.US)$has risen more than 40%, $Ventas Inc (VTR.US)$has risen approximately 29%, $Equity Residential (EQR.US)$has recorded an increase of more than 24%, $AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB.US)$has recorded an increase of more than 21%, $Simon Property (SPG.US)$has recorded an increase of approximately 20%, and these six REITs are on track to reach historic highs by the end of the year.are all updating historic highs.The 4Q revenue guidance slightly missed market expectations, becoming a selling point. While AI semiconductors are doing well, the growth of non-AI business is expected to fall below market estimates.
On the other hand, the major US residential construction company $NVR Inc (NVR.US)$、 $PulteGroup (PHM.US)$、 $Lennar Corp-B (LEN.B.US)$、 $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$has shown a year-to-date increaseof 20% to 30%and similarly within the yearupdating historical highsIt is listed on May 23. It tracks the index of Mirae Asset India Select Top10+Index (including dividends) in yen.
What is worth noting is that as early as last yearthe 'God of Investments,' Mr. Buffett, had already invested in real estate stocksThe three stocks purchased in the third quarter of 2023 are all major US residential construction companies. $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$、 $Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$、 $NVR Inc (NVR.US)$Looking at the stock price trends this year,Buffett's move was a precise bet on this upward wave.D.R. Horton, Lennar, and NVR have each accumulated since the second quarter of last year.92%、88%、63%It has recorded the above-mentioned increase.
etc $Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ.US)$Real estate ETFs represented by ‣ have also risen by 35% from the October 2023 low. Especiallya significant increase of 14% in the last 2 monthshas been observed during the same period. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$Is far outpacing the 3% increase.
Looking back in history, since the 1990s, the US Federal Reserve has implemented 6 rate cut cycles. Among them,In a precautionary rate cut cycle, real estate stocks generally outperform the overall marketHowever,In a recessionary rate cut cycle, the performance of real estate stocks variedBecoming. The real estate market is a typical interest rate-sensitive sector, and historically itsPerformance is correlated with interest ratesIt is listed on May 23. It tracks the index of Mirae Asset India Select Top10+Index (including dividends) in yen.
As shown in the chart below, the real estate ETF $Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ.US)$moves inversely with the 2-year government bond yield, which is an important indicator of market expectations for short-term interest rates.
Overall, the current strong performance of US real estate stocks can be attributed tothe strong market expectations for a rate cut by the FRB.With the decrease in mortgage interest rates, there has been a significant increase in homebuyer activity, which is expected to further promote the development of this industry. As of September 4, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest ratehas dropped to about 6.50%,allowing more homebuyers to enter the market and anticipate a recovery in real estate transaction activity.
Regarding sales volume and housing prices,The decrease in mortgage interest rates improves the payment ability of residents and allows them to purchase at more affordable prices.This leads to an increase in demand.which usually results in an increase in sales volume the following year.According to Morgan Stanley, housing sales volume tends to increase the year after a significant improvement in affordability, except for the rate cuts in 2019, which were impacted by pandemic lockdown measures.
In fact, existing home sales in the US increased from 3.9 million in June to 3.95 million in July, a 1.3% increase from the previous month, reversing the four-month decline trend.
Housing supply, after a long period of stagnation, is gradually increasing.The total housing inventory available on the market at the end of July was 1.33 million units, a slight increase of 0.8% from June, but a significant increase of 19.8% compared to the previous year. This figure represents a supply of 4.0 months.It corresponds to the supply.It is approaching the usual 5-6 months required for a healthy and balanced market..
The rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve could contribute to the improvement of the overall capital cost in the real estate industry, according to Wedbush's report. There is a possibility that individual investors will re-enter the market, which will have an impact on trading volume and yield cap. Therefore, we are in the midst of the industry's growth trend.We are in the middle of the industry's growth trend.According to analysts from the same institution,
Stocks related to the US real estate market can be divided into three major categories.
● $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$Residential construction companies represented by ;
● $CBRE Group (CBRE.US)$Non-residential and residential real estate service companies represented by ;
● $Simon Property (SPG.US)$Equity-type commercial real estate REITs represented by .
● $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$Residential construction companies represented by ;
● $CBRE Group (CBRE.US)$Non-residential and residential real estate service companies represented by ;
● $Simon Property (SPG.US)$Equity-type commercial real estate REITs represented by .
The past performance of the real estate sector is often inversely correlated with interest rates, but there are significant differences among different subsectors and companies, so investors should consider the above stocks as well asETFIt is also possible to capture opportunities for growth in the US real estate sector through Morgan Stanley.
According to the GICS criteria, the real estate sector includes companies engaged in real estate management and development activities.Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are included in the real estate sector.やIn the real estate sector, large-scale ETFs include Vanguard's, SPDR's, and BlackRock's.Vanguard's $Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ.US)$SPDR's $Real Estate Select Sector Spdr Fund (The) (XLRE.US)$and BlackRock's $iShares US Real Estate ETF (IYR.US)$Exists.
XLREは大型株に集中しており、保有銘柄数は少なく、主要企業の比重が高い。一方、VNQはより分散化されており、中小型株も含まれていて、主要企業の比重が相対的に低い。IYRも全業種をカバーしており、保有銘柄数はXLREより多いが、VNQより少ない。また、IYRの比重上限設定はより厳しく、単一銘柄の比重上限は10%で、比重が4.50%を超える全ての銘柄の合計比重上限は22.50%を超えないように設定されている。そのため、IYRのAmong the three ETFs, the weight of major companies is the lowest.It is biased towards small and mid-cap stocks.
Furthermore, according to Wedbush,there is a good opportunity for US REITs.According to Dow Inc, JP Morgan mentioned that
Despite the overall slowing pace of growth in the real estate transaction market over the past 18-24 months, net lease-focused REITs continue to rely heavily on tenant relationships for external growth and are noted for their higher stability compared to real estate stocks.
For specific stocks, Wedbush covers four net lease-focused REITs in the US stock market. Among them, $Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc (EPRT.US)$and $Broadstone Net Lease (BNL.US)$Regarding, they gave an "outperform" rating.They gave a "neutral" rating to.Source: Macquarie, Bloomberg, usbank, bankrate. $Netstreit (NTST.US)$and $Realty Income (O.US)$Regarding, they gave a "neutral" rating.Source: Macquarie, Bloomberg, usbank, bankrate.Regarding, they gave an "outperform" rating.
Source: Macquarie, Bloomberg, usbank, bankrate.
This article uses auto-translation partially.
moomoo News Sherry
This article uses auto-translation partially.
moomoo News Sherry
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えるみー : Will the interest rate cut really become a tailwind? Or will it be a situation where interest rates are cut as if being chased?