NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 142.100 FUBO
FuboTV
-- 5.210 TSLA
Tesla
-- 395.059 MU
Micron Technology
-- 103.360 PLTR
Palantir
-- 70.780 The biggest overvaluation in the past 15 years? Downward revision of U.S. employment by 1 million people!?
At 11:00 PM Japan time on the 21st, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Quarter Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the first quarter of 2024. Based on the QCEW, provisional revisions to the non-farm employment criteria are being made, with final revisions to the criteria to be made next year combining non-farm employment figures for January and February.
Financial institutions are cautious about the possibility of significant downward revisions to employment statistics. This data pertains to labor market trends from April 2023 to March 2024.
In their research report, Goldman Sachs indicated the possibility of cumulative downward revisions of non-farm employment figures by 0.6 million to 1 million due to this annual revision.On the other hand, Bloomberg's economic research team suggested the potential downward revision of non-farm employment by 0.6 million to 1 million in cumulative terms.indicating the possibility of a downward revision. Meanwhile, Bloomberg's economic research teamThe scale of downward revision is expected to reach 0.8 million people.The number of non-agricultural employees in April and July this year is likely to be revised to near zero levels.The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% as early as October.I am looking at it.
Financial institutions are cautious about the possibility of significant downward revisions to employment statistics. This data pertains to labor market trends from April 2023 to March 2024.
In their research report, Goldman Sachs indicated the possibility of cumulative downward revisions of non-farm employment figures by 0.6 million to 1 million due to this annual revision.On the other hand, Bloomberg's economic research team suggested the potential downward revision of non-farm employment by 0.6 million to 1 million in cumulative terms.indicating the possibility of a downward revision. Meanwhile, Bloomberg's economic research teamThe scale of downward revision is expected to reach 0.8 million people.The number of non-agricultural employees in April and July this year is likely to be revised to near zero levels.The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% as early as October.I am looking at it.
If the number of employees is revised downwards by more than 500,000, it will be the largest downward revision in the past 15 years.The largest downward revision in the past 15 years.This would be the largest downward revision in the past 15 years, suggesting that the cooling of the labor market may last longer and further than initially thought. This data will impact Chairman Powell's keynote speech at the World Central Bank Annual Meeting in Jackson Hole this Friday.This data will impact Chairman Powell's keynote speech at the World Central Bank Annual Meeting in Jackson Hole this Friday.There is also a possibility of giving.
If the downward revision affects 1 million people, it means that all the 'better-than-expected' employment data over the past year was wrong, and the situation in the US job market is deteriorating more than the government acknowledges.
With a significant downward revision in employment statistics,There is a possibility that the slowdown in the US labor market could lead to a rapid economic slowdown.The debate over whether the slowdown in the US labor market will lead to a rapid economic slowdown may reignite. The number of non-farm payroll employees in the US for July, released earlier this month, fell significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose for the fourth consecutive month contrary to expectations. Subsequently, the global markets experienced a sell-off of $6.4 trillion, but by Friday, the S&P500 stock index, the US benchmark, recovered all the losses from earlier this month.
Investors perceive such significant downward revisions as the market's concerns regarding the extent of employment weakness, as the focus of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) has shifted from inflation control to job retention.It will certainly trigger market concerns about the degree of employment weakness.
Market analyst Ben Woodward also benchmarks employment forecasts against the comprehensive data of QCEW every year, pointing out that the significant revision this time may indicate that the previous data from the Labor Statistics Bureau exaggerated the actual performance of the job market, which was actually weaker.
However, even if the BLS significantly downward revises the number of non-farm payroll employees on Wednesday,it does not mean that the US job growth is collapsing.。
According to the current BLS data, the US shows an increase of 2.9 million people in March, with an average monthly increase of 0.24 million 2000 employees. If Goldman Sachs' maximum estimate is downward revised by 1 million people, the average number of employees per month would be about 0.15 million 8000 people,entering the level of job growth considered healthy by economists,but it is decelerating from the employment peak after the coronavirus.
Omeed Sharif, President of Inflation Insights LLC, believes that the revised BLS figures will likely be close to the lower end of Wall Street's forecast range.
On the other hand, in the Goldman Sachs report, it is argued that the downward revision by the BLS may exaggerate the extent of weak growth in the labor market over the past year. This is because the QCEW used for data revision largely excludes undocumented immigrants who make significant contributions to employment growth.
Furthermore, it is pointed out that the QCEW itself has been consistently subject to upward revisions in recent years. Since 2019, the initial benchmark estimates of employment based on QCEW have been an average of 0.1 million lower than the final revised values.
-moomoo News by Evelyn
Source: Bloomberg, moomoo
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.
If the downward revision affects 1 million people, it means that all the 'better-than-expected' employment data over the past year was wrong, and the situation in the US job market is deteriorating more than the government acknowledges.
With a significant downward revision in employment statistics,There is a possibility that the slowdown in the US labor market could lead to a rapid economic slowdown.The debate over whether the slowdown in the US labor market will lead to a rapid economic slowdown may reignite. The number of non-farm payroll employees in the US for July, released earlier this month, fell significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose for the fourth consecutive month contrary to expectations. Subsequently, the global markets experienced a sell-off of $6.4 trillion, but by Friday, the S&P500 stock index, the US benchmark, recovered all the losses from earlier this month.
Investors perceive such significant downward revisions as the market's concerns regarding the extent of employment weakness, as the focus of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) has shifted from inflation control to job retention.It will certainly trigger market concerns about the degree of employment weakness.
Market analyst Ben Woodward also benchmarks employment forecasts against the comprehensive data of QCEW every year, pointing out that the significant revision this time may indicate that the previous data from the Labor Statistics Bureau exaggerated the actual performance of the job market, which was actually weaker.
However, even if the BLS significantly downward revises the number of non-farm payroll employees on Wednesday,it does not mean that the US job growth is collapsing.。
According to the current BLS data, the US shows an increase of 2.9 million people in March, with an average monthly increase of 0.24 million 2000 employees. If Goldman Sachs' maximum estimate is downward revised by 1 million people, the average number of employees per month would be about 0.15 million 8000 people,entering the level of job growth considered healthy by economists,but it is decelerating from the employment peak after the coronavirus.
Omeed Sharif, President of Inflation Insights LLC, believes that the revised BLS figures will likely be close to the lower end of Wall Street's forecast range.
On the other hand, in the Goldman Sachs report, it is argued that the downward revision by the BLS may exaggerate the extent of weak growth in the labor market over the past year. This is because the QCEW used for data revision largely excludes undocumented immigrants who make significant contributions to employment growth.
Furthermore, it is pointed out that the QCEW itself has been consistently subject to upward revisions in recent years. Since 2019, the initial benchmark estimates of employment based on QCEW have been an average of 0.1 million lower than the final revised values.
-moomoo News by Evelyn
Source: Bloomberg, moomoo
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
よろぴこ : I thought employment data was unreliable for a long time, but if that were the case, the downward revision would be too big.
A downward correction of -0.306 million people was announced last year, and this time the level is significantly higher than last year's correction range. If there is such a gap because they are putting in part-time work, and the economy and investors are overreacting and swayed and damaged, the American government should review the calculation method and presentation method.
182854629 : I wonder if that's bad?
Yoshi_777 : Well, in any case, it's not a panic-inducing event. In the first place, it is impossible to statistically accurately grasp the number of employed people every month, and it's just that there were employers that were excessively captured, and this does not mean that all of them are directly unemployed.
However, the numbers look good, and they seem to have some impact.
人類 よろぴこ : It's the limit of the Made in USA principle in everything. Too bad