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The Cleveland Fed updated their inflation nowcast this morni...
The Cleveland Fed updated their inflation nowcast this morning.
August CPI is now projected at 0.79%, pushing the YoY to 3.82%.
September CPI is now projected at 0.45%, pushing the YoY to 3.91%.
Driving this has been the rise in gasoline prices.
Yes, the Cleveland Fed has overstated CPI in recent months. But it has been by 0.1% or 0.2%. So, even factoring in an overstate again, August and September CPI are looking at relatively large numbers unless you want to make the case that they will massively overstate now, I cannot.
YoY CPI bottomed at 3.0% in June. If YoY CPI is pushing 4.0% by September (reported in mid-October), I cannot see how the Fed pauses from raising rates, and any 2024 rate cut is out of the question.
August CPI is now projected at 0.79%, pushing the YoY to 3.82%.
September CPI is now projected at 0.45%, pushing the YoY to 3.91%.
Driving this has been the rise in gasoline prices.
Yes, the Cleveland Fed has overstated CPI in recent months. But it has been by 0.1% or 0.2%. So, even factoring in an overstate again, August and September CPI are looking at relatively large numbers unless you want to make the case that they will massively overstate now, I cannot.
YoY CPI bottomed at 3.0% in June. If YoY CPI is pushing 4.0% by September (reported in mid-October), I cannot see how the Fed pauses from raising rates, and any 2024 rate cut is out of the question.
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