US stocks fall
✅ Exchange
・Recovering the 149 yen level
・The trend of price increases with a view to 150 yen continues
・The view that the FRB will prolong high interest rates
○Voices from the Market
・The possibility that US government offices will close is also increasing, leading to a risk avoidance mood
✅ Bonds
・Yields have risen
・Be wary that the FRB will keep interest rates high for a long period of time
✅
・Significant reversal
・The view that the FRB will prolong high interest rates is weakening market expectations for a soft landing
・JPMorgan CEO Dimon's statement was conveyed, and the view is that the worst-case scenario where US interest rates reach 7% should also be considered
・The fact that the possibility of closing US government offices is increasing also continues to be significant
・The September consumer confidence index fell more than expected from 8/108.7 to 103.0, the lowest since May
〇Voices from the Market
・The stock market is actively incorporating interest rate cuts and strong growth
・What about the closure of government agencies. Even a short-term shutdown highlights the weakness of the strength of US institutions and governance
✔ ︎ Amazon
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) sued for violating antitrust laws.
✔ ︎ Costco
・Existing store sales (excluding gasoline and exchange): 3.8% (forecast: 3.9%)
US: 3.1% (forecast: 3.3%)
Canada: 7.4% (forecast: 4.9%)
Overseas: 4.4% (forecast: 5.2%)
・Earnings per share: $4.86 (forecast: $4.78)
・Sales: $78.94 billion (forecast: $77.72 billion)
Membership fees: $1.51 billion (estimated: $1.46 billion)
✅ A pretend view
・The Federal Reserve has once again shown an attitude of continuing to raise interest rates to control inflation.
・Also, since the possibility of closing US government offices is increasing, the risk aversion mood is getting stronger.
・Additionally, the consumer confidence index for September recorded its lowest level since May.
・Until employment statistics, it seems better not to catch a decline.
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