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Markets rally as recession fears ease: Take action or stay patient?
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The collapse of US stocks, how will the global market interpret it, and what are the current good opportunities?

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Lazyslob joined discussion · Aug 6 10:06
Recently, US stocks have collapsed, and in a few trading days in July, all of this year's gains have almost been reduced back. The Japanese stock market also collapsed, especially when it fell 12.4% in one fell on Black Monday this week. The Singapore Straits Index also collapsed.
Stop, stop, we're looking for investment opportunities, not to watch the fun.
Recently, as soon as US stocks crashed, various voices in the market came, so there were endless arguments about conspiracy theories, recession, economic crisis, and Buffett's huge retreat (Buffett Q2 accurately reduced Apple holdings on a large scale, accounting for 50%). However, if we just follow the voice of the market, it is likely that we will be chasing the rise and falling, and then being cut back and forth.
Essentially, the root cause of the collapse of US stocks is that they have risen a lot, and investors think they are expensive. The Nasdaq index bottomed out at the end of 2022 and doubled in one go, so the 20% drop now can be seen as a valuation correction, which makes perfect sense. Of course, US stocks are high, the US dollar is high, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is imminent. The trend is for the US dollar to change from strong to weak. The non-agricultural data is not good. The unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, triggering Sam's law (triggering a recession, with very high historical accuracy). Under these circumstances, the decline in US stocks is also a trend. The 10% + drop in just a few trading days left everyone panicking and imagining. Let me say washing is healthier; it is difficult to change the momentum in the short term; don't let the bullets fly for a while.
So what about the future? Where will US stocks go? In my global turbulent environment, what good investment opportunities are there other than US stocks
The collapse of US stocks, how will the global market interpret it, and what are the current good opportunities?
I believe many friends are thinking, will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? What targets will benefit, and if you buy these types of targets now, can you win by cutting interest rates?
Theoretically, this is true, but it also depends on the quality and valuation of the target. If you buy something that is really cheap, the price of the boat will rise.
As for US debt, the returns on many assets are directly related to the Federal Reserve. Like a US bond fund with an inverse index of interest, the US market has TLT $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ , the Hong Kong market has 03433 $CSOP FTSE US Treasury 20+ Years Index ETF (03433.HK)$ (Southern US Treasury 20, tracking tlt, stamp duty free, no dividend tax). The author began laying out US debt in October of last year, and now has a profit of 20%. Starting to lay out US debt now is actually one step slower. The rest will depend on the pace at which the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates; it will be more difficult to grasp.
What about REITs? Yes, REITs also lay on the ground when US interest rates are high; interest rate cuts have benefited to a certain extent. Compared to the principal face value of bonds, which cannot be increased in the future, the author also likes REITs. After all, if the assets held by Reits are of high quality, the assets themselves also have a chance to increase in value, and dividends will grow along with the market.
Further benefits are expected as interest rates decline in the future:
1. When interest rates fall, borrowing costs are reduced, and REITs can finance at a lower cost. This is particularly beneficial for REITs that require frequent refinancing, as they can reduce interest expenses and thus increase net profit.
2. A decrease in interest rates is usually accompanied by a reduction in the cost of capital, which may drive up the price of real estate assets. As a result, the value of assets held by REITs is also likely to rise, which is beneficial to the growth of their net asset value (NAV).
USAIn fact, REITs also had an early response. VQN, the largest Reits fund, has actually reacted. The trend is very similar to TLT. It also bottomed out in October last year, and has increased 20% + so far. The dividend rate of 4% is average for Reits. Also, at a time when the US economy is shrouded in haze, buying REITs in US stocks is also a bit uneasy
Looking around in the global market, the current Singapore REITs are actually a great opportunity.
The collapse of US stocks, how will the global market interpret it, and what are the current good opportunities?
The Singapore market has always been known for its stability and is known as a safe haven for capital. In recent years, Singapore has absorbed investment from companies and individuals from around the world. It has abundant capital, and the prices of various types of assets have continued to rise. After the pandemic, the stock prices of several major banks almost doubled, and real estate and property assets have also soared wildly. Housing has generally risen quite a bit, 30% to 50%. The value of commercial real estate is also soaring
However, I didn't expect Reits' stock price to be unsatisfactory in recent years. Almost all major REITs haven't performed much for 3 years and are still lying on the ground.
What surprised me was that the stock prices of the top REITs in Singapore that hold the highest quality real estate are also indifferent, which is simply unforgivable. Isn't this an opportunity?
The reason for this is, on the one hand, the suppression of high interest rates; on the other hand, the market is not so popular. However,The market value of the properties behind Singapore REITs has actually increased significantly in the past two years. In the past two years, in an environment where interest rates are high, thanks to the boom in the Singaporean economy, Singapore's property assets have shown strong resilience. The performance of REITs does not seem to have been greatly affected by high interest rates, and some have even achieved a certain amount of growth. With interest rate cuts in the future, it is expected that REITs' performance will be further released.It is also a probable event that Davis would double click to obtain a certain amount of excess revenue at that time.
Which is better for Singapore's REITs? It's not easy to do research as an ordinary investor. There is a type of fund that holds REITS portfolios to help investors select leading companies and then distribute their holdings according to a certain ratio. In other words, base to base.
Through the clean-up of the entire market, I finally chose to invest in SRT in Southern East England $CSOP S-REITs INDEX ETF (SRT.SG)$ As a foundation, the SRT portfolio is of very high quality, and it holds the strongest and most valuable Retis in Singapore. It could be a collection of Singapore's high-quality property assets. Investments cannot be based on feelings; we need to be based on data and facts. Let's analyze this SRT.
(I read that Southern Dongying CSOP is probably the only US dollar cargo base manager that MooMoo cooperates with. The parent company is in Hong Kong. This cargo base is the moomoo cash smart save that everyone is familiar with $CSOP USD Money Market Fund (18000597.FD)$ In most cases, the cash positions I keep are charged interest, and now the annualized amount is 5%. CSOP previously issued the world's largest pure Chinese treasury bond ETF in Singapore—CY $ICBC CSOP CGB ETF S$ (CYC.SG)$ C. They also have a 20-year US Treasury ETF in Hong Kong that directly targets TLT 3433.HK $CSOP FTSE US Treasury 20+ Years Index ETF (03433.HK)$ (The overall performance in fixed income products is still remarkable)
Going back to CSOP, the top ten SRT heavy positions, can be said to be the top ten groups of Singapore REITs. The top ten REITs account for 80%. Basically, it is a collection of high-quality property assets from all over Singapore, which is quite reassuring. (There is a small amount of assets in Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, Europe, America, etc., and the share is very low.) What you want is this kind of refinement and purity, isn't it?
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Next, let's take a look at this fund in detail.
Southern East EnglandSRT's full name is SRT CSOP S-REITS INDEX ETF, Singapore Core Reits Portfolio Fund. An ETF focused on investing in Singapore REITs.
The current annual dividend is about 6%, the price-earnings ratio is 17.8%, and the debt ratio is 37%
Achieving this performance in an environment of high interest rates can be said to be quite good.
The current price-earnings ratio is at an all-time low, as shown in the chart below:
The collapse of US stocks, how will the global market interpret it, and what are the current good opportunities?
The net market ratio is generally at an all-time low, and the current net market ratio is only 0.88. You need to know that this is a real property asset; it is not an asset that is difficult to monetize the equipment or plant of an enterprise. It was only the 18-year crisis and the 20-year epidemic that briefly fell below 1.0. However, in the past two years, the Singaporean economy has been booming. With prices rising so much, the stock price of Reits has been sluggish, and the net market ratio has actually hit new lows over and over again.
The collapse of US stocks, how will the global market interpret it, and what are the current good opportunities?
The dividends are steady as always, at 6% per year, and even in the worst year of the epidemic, 4%. The dividend yield curve is shown below:
 
The collapse of US stocks, how will the global market interpret it, and what are the current good opportunities?
Of course, finding a partner isn't just about appearance; the important thing is to understand his/her heart, skill, and love you or not. Buying funds should not only look at numbers, but also find out what assets he holds behind him, whether they are of high quality, and whether there is room for future upgrades.
 
The top ten positions of SRT are as follows:
The collapse of US stocks, how will the global market interpret it, and what are the current good opportunities?
Looking at these letters of REITs, everyone is probably confused and doesn't know what they are
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Next, let's give a basic introduction to the top ten ingredients:
wherein
1-3 are Capitaide Group's three brothers
4-6 are the three brothers of the Maeki Group
7 to 8 are the two brothers of the Keppel Group
1. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) $CapLand IntCom T (C38U.SG)$
Overview: CapitaMall Commercial Trust is Singapore's largest commercial real estate investment trust, founded in 2002. The trust invests in quality shopping malls and commercial properties in Singapore, and has a strong asset portfolio, many of which are Singapore's landmarks, such as Marina Bay Sands Mall and Tampines Center.
Major assets: CICT's main assets include shopping malls, office buildings, and comprehensive commercial properties. Its properties are spread across Singapore's central business district and other major commercial districts, attracting numerous international and local retail brands and commercial tenants.
Famous products
The collapse of US stocks, how will the global market interpret it, and what are the current good opportunities?
Ascendas REIT (Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (A-REIT)) under CapitaLand Group (CapitaLand) is one of the largest and diversified industrial and commercial real estate investment trusts in Singapore. Established in November 2002, A-REIT is Singapore's first listed industrial real estate investment trust, focusing on investing in and managing various types of industrial and commercial properties.
2. CapitalAndAscendas Reit (A-REIT)
Ascendas REIT (Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (A-REIT)) under CapitaLand Group (CapitaLand) is one of the largest and diversified industrial and commercial real estate investment trusts in Singapore. Established in November 2002, A-REIT is Singapore's first listed industrial real estate investment trust, focusing on investing in and managing various types of industrial and commercial properties.
Major assets: A-REIT's assets include logistics facilities, industrial parks, technology parks, and data centers, distributed in countries and regions such as Singapore (main location), Australia, and Japan. A-REIT benefits from the rapid growth of e-commerce and the strengthening of regional supply chains. For example, Changi Business Park (Singapore): a major business park in Singapore, attracting regional headquarters for many financial services and technology companies. Nexus @one -north (Singapore): Located in One-North, Singapore's main science and technology park, it provides high-tech R&D facilities and office space. Science Park I & II (Singapore): Provides research and development facilities, mainly serving the high-tech and biomedical fields. Macquarie Park (Australia): Located in an important business district in Sydney, it provides modern office space for the information technology and communications industry. Data Centres in UK & US: We have multiple data center assets in the UK and US to meet growing global data storage and management needs.
3. Ascott Residence Trust (ART)
Overview: It is also a REIT under the Capitaide Group. Ascott Residence Trust is one of the largest listed hotel and serviced apartment trusts in the world, investing mainly in serviced apartments and hotel properties in Asia Pacific, Europe and the US.
Key assets: ART's asset portfolio includes serviced apartments, hotels and rental residences, covering different brands and positions such as Ascott, Citadines, and Shengjie. Most of these properties are located in major cities and commercial centers, attracting both business travelers and long-term residents.
4. Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT)
After merging with Mapletree Asia, it was renamed Mapletree Pan Asia Pacific Commercial Trust $Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr (N2IU.SG)$
Overview: Maple Commercial Trust focuses on commercial real estate investments, including shopping malls, office buildings, and mixed-use commercial properties. MCT's assets are mainly concentrated in Singapore, and it has many high-quality properties.
Major assets: MCT's main assets include VivoCity (VivoCity), one of the largest shopping malls in Singapore, and high-quality office buildings such as Maple Mall and Maple Peace Building. Another city in Hong Kong is a non-Singaporean property owned by Mapletree Mapletree after the merger. MCT is known for its premium portfolio of strategically located properties and stable tenant base.
I have posted a column about Toyoki before, so you can check it out.
The collapse of US stocks, how will the global market interpret it, and what are the current good opportunities?
Singapore's largest shopping center, connecting the main island to Sentosa.
5. Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT)
Overview: Maple Industrial Trust invests mainly in industrial real estate and data centers, and its properties are located in Singapore and North America.
Major assets: MIT's assets include industrial plants, business parks, and data centers. The main tenants are companies in the manufacturing industry, information technology, and data services. MIT is benefiting from the rapid development of the digital economy, particularly strong demand in the data center sector.
6. Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT)
Overview: Maple Logistics Trust focuses on logistics and industrial property investments in the Asia-Pacific region and is one of the largest logistics real estate trusts in the region.
Main assets: MLT's properties are widely distributed, covering various markets such as Singapore, China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Its main assets include a modern logistics park and warehousing facilities. With the growth of global trade and e-commerce, demand for logistics real estate continues to rise. With its high-quality logistics facilities and strategic location, MLT benefits from the industry's long-term growth trend.
7. Keppel DC REIT (Keppel DC REIT)
Overview: Keppel DC REIT is Singapore's first real estate investment trust focused on data centers. Established in 2014, it mainly invests in high-quality data center assets in Asia Pacific and Europe.
Key assets: Keppel DC REIT's asset portfolio includes multiple data centers located in Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Germany, and the United Kingdom. These data centers provide businesses with highly secure and efficient server hosting services. The data center market continues to grow, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and data storage. With its specialization and strategic asset allocation, Keppel DC REIT can steadily benefit from this trend.
8. Keppel REIT (Keppel REIT)
Overview: Keppel Real Estate Trust invests mainly in high-quality office buildings in Singapore and Australia, providing high-quality office space.
Major assets: Its main assets include iconic Singapore office buildings such as Marina Bay Financial Center and Ocean Financial Centre, as well as high-quality office properties in many core Australian cities. Keppel Realty Trust properties are generally located in central business districts and have high quality tenants such as financial institutions and multinational companies.
9. Frasers Property Trust (FPT)
Overview: Star Lion Real Estate Trust focuses on investing in retail and industrial properties, covering Singapore and other regional markets.
Key assets: FPT's asset portfolio includes shopping malls, commercial real estate and industrial logistics facilities, covering regions such as Singapore, Australia, and Europe. With its high-quality assets and strong management team, FPT can maintain stable performance in different market environments. Its retail properties are benefiting from a recovery in consumption, while industrial properties are benefiting from increased logistics demand.
! 10.Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust (Suntec REIT)
It is a real estate investment trust listed on the Singapore Exchange and was established in December 2004. It mainly invests in commercial real estate, including office buildings, retail properties, and conference centers. Suntec REIT's portfolio is spread across major urban locations in Singapore and Australia, and is one of the key commercial real estate investment trusts in the Asia-Pacific region.
Main assets: The assets are mainly office buildings, retail properties, and conference centers in the core area of Singapore. Among them, Suntec City (Suntec City) is the flagship asset, including one of Singapore's largest shopping malls, Suntec Mall, and Suntec's office complex. Ideally located on the edge of Singapore's central business district, Suntec City is a comprehensive commercial project integrating office, shopping, entertainment and meetings. Suntec City also has the Suntec Convention and Exhibition Center, which is one of Singapore's major conference and exhibition venues. There's also One Raffles Quay: Located in the heart of Singapore's central business district, it is one of Singapore's iconic office buildings, attracting many multinational companies and financial institutions as tenants. Marina Bay Financial Centre: This is also one of Singapore's major office buildings. It is located in the Marina Bay Financial District and has world-class office space and facilities. The main tenants include large multinational companies and financial institutions. 177 Pacific Highway (Australia): A high-quality office building on Sydney's north shore, it is one of Suntec REIT's key assets in Australia. Southgate Complex (Australia): Located on the south bank of Melbourne, it contains office buildings and retail space, and is a multi-use commercial complex.
 
UltimaI can't help but be impressed. The top three groups are about to monopolize high-quality properties in Singapore. As for Southern East Asia's Reits (code: SRT) target, owning it can be said that it has a collection of the core and highest quality assets in Singapore. The asset structure is leveraged, and the dividends are stable. The future property assets themselves will also steadily improve as Singapore develops.
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Summary:
In the current environment, the global situation is turbulent. Some allocations with strong cash flow and stable dividends are good choices to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. In particular, if the value of the target is undervalued and the stock price is low, this is a good opportunity. In addition to stable cash flow in the future, asset prices are also expected to increase further, and there is an opportunity to obtain additional benefits as the principal asset price increases along with the valuation.
———————— Statement—————
Risk warning: Investing is risky, and you need to be careful when entering the market.
This article is just a summary of personal experiences and thoughts. The content is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice for any person or organization. Profit and loss are at your own risk. Hope the idea is helpful to you and lead the way. Everyone is welcome to communicate.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
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Hutu Family Fund Manager. 新加坡资深投资者. 大树投资体系创始人.
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