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Markets rally as recession fears ease: Take action or stay patient?
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With the collapse of the US stock market, how will the global market evolve and what are the good opportunities at the moment?

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懒胡涂 joined discussion · Aug 6 23:06
Recently, the US stock market collapsed, and in just a few trading days in July, it almost wiped out this year's gains. The Japanese stock market also collapsed, especially on Black Monday this week, when it fell 12.4% in one day. The Straits Times Index in Singapore also collapsed.
Hold on, we are here to find investment opportunities, not just to watch the excitement.
Recently, the US stock market plummeted, and various voices in the market emerged. Therefore, all kinds of conspiracy theories, recessions, economic crises, and the argument of Warren Buffett's large retreat (Buffett accurately reduced his holdings of Apple in Q2, accounting for 50%) are constantly appearing. But if we just follow the market's voice and go along with it, we are very likely to chase highs and sell lows, and again become the "leek" that is cut.
The fundamental reason for the collapse of the US stock market is that it has risen too much, and investors think it is expensive. The Nasdaq bottomed out at the end of 2022 and doubled in one breath. Therefore, the 20% decline now can be completely seen as a valuation adjustment, which is reasonable and understandable. Of course, the US stock market is at a high level, the US dollar is at a high level, the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, and the trend of the US dollar changing from strong to weak is inevitable. The non-farm payrolls data is also not good, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sam Law (which indicates an economic recession with a very high historical accuracy rate). In this situation, the decline of the US stock market is also a trend. It's just that the sharp 10%+ drop in a few trading days has caused panic and wild thoughts. In my opinion, it's better to take a step back and adjust. In the short term, it's difficult to change the downward trend, so it's not a bad idea to let the bullets fly for a while.
So what about the future? Where will the US stock market go? In the global turbulent environment, what other good investment opportunities are there besides the US stock market??
With the collapse of the US stock market, how will the global market evolve and what are the good opportunities at the moment?
I believe many friends are thinking, Fed rate cuts? Which assets will benefit? Can buying these assets now and waiting for rate cuts lead to winning?
In theory, it's not wrong, but you also need to consider the quality and valuation of the assets. You need to buy assets that are truly cheap in order to achieve high returns.
For US bonds, the returns of many assets are directly related to the Federal Reserve. Like the inverse interest rate indicator bond funds, there is TLT in the US market. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ and 03433 in the Hong Kong market. $CSOP FTSE US Treasury 20+ Years Index ETF (03433.HK)$ (Southern United States Treasury Bonds 20, tracking TLT, no stamp duty, no dividend tax). The author has been laying out US bonds since October last year, and has already gained a 20% return. It's actually a bit late to start laying out US bonds now. The difficulty will increase based on the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
What about the Reits? That's right, when US interest rates are high, Reits are also lying on the ground, and will benefit to a certain extent from the interest rate cuts.Compared to bonds, which have a fixed face value that cannot increase in the future, the author prefers Reits. After all, if the assets held by Reits are of high quality, there is also a chance for the assets themselves to appreciate, and dividends will also grow with the market.
In the future, with the decline in interest rates, further benefits are expected:
1. When interest rates fall, borrowing costs are reduced, which allows REITs to finance at a lower cost. This is particularly beneficial for those REITs that need frequent refinancing, as they can reduce interest expenses, thereby increasing net income.
2. Falling interest rates usually come with lower cost of capital, which may push up the price of real estate assets. Therefore, the value of assets held by REITs may also increase, which benefits the growth of their net asset value (NAV).
USA.Reits have already shown some response. The largest Reits fund VQN has also responded early, with a trend similar to TLT. It hit bottom also in October last year and has risen by over 20% since then. The dividend yield is 4%, which is quite average for Reits. In addition, amidst the gloomy economic situation in the United States, it's a bit worrisome to buy Reits of American stocks..
In the global market, Singapore's reits are actually a very good opportunity at the moment.
With the collapse of the US stock market, how will the global market evolve and what are the good opportunities at the moment?
The Singapore market has always been known for its stability and is known as a safe haven for funds. In recent years, Singapore has attracted investments from global corporations and individuals, resulting in abundant funds and continuous increase in asset prices. After the outbreak, the stock prices of major banks have almost doubled, while real estate and property assets have soared. Residential properties have generally seen a large increase of 30% to 50%, and the value of commercial properties has also risen sharply..
However, in recent years, the stock prices of reits have been disappointing. Almost all major reits have not performed well for three consecutive years, and some are just lying low on the ground.
What surprised the author is that the stock prices of the top few reits in Singapore, which hold the highest quality properties, have also remained indifferent. This is simply unacceptable. Isn't this an opportunity?
The main reasons for this are the suppression of high interest rates and the lack of market enthusiasm in this area. However,The market value of the properties behind Singapore reits has actually increased significantly in the past two years. Despite the high interest rate environment, thanks to the strong economic outlook in Singapore, the property assets in Singapore have shown strong resilience. It seems that the performance of reits has not been greatly affected by high interest rates, and some have even achieved some growth. With future interest rate cuts, the performance of reits is expected to be further unleashed.届时迎来戴维斯双击获取一定超额收益也是大概率事件。
对于新加坡的Reits哪家强?作为普通的投资者要研究也并非易事。有一类基金执有Reits组合,帮助投资者把头部的公司选出来,然后根据一定的比例分散执有。也就是基中基。
通过对全市场的整理,最后我选择了投资南方东英的SRT $CSOP S-REITs INDEX ETF (SRT.SG)$ ,作为一只基中基,SRT组合质量非常高,持有的都是新加坡的最强最有价值的Retis。可以是他就是新加坡优质物业资产的集合。投资不能凭感觉,我们需要基于数据和事实,下面我们就来分析一下这个SRT。
(南方东英CSOP我看了下他们应该是moomoo合作的唯一美元货基管理人,母公司在香港。这只货基就是大家耳熟能详的moomoo现金smart save $CSOP USD Money Market Fund (SGXZ96797238.MF)$ ,我大部分情况下保留的现金头寸都放里面收利息,现在年化有5%。CSOP之前在新加坡还发行过全球规模最大的中国纯国债ETF——CY $ICBC CSOP CGB ETF S$ (CYC.SG)$ C,他们在香港也有20年美国国债etf直接对标TLT 的3433.HK $CSOP FTSE US Treasury 20+ Years Index ETF (03433.HK)$ ,整体在固收类产品的表现还是可圈可点 )
Speaking of CSOP, this top 10 heavy-position SRT can be said to be the top 10 combination of Singapore Reits, with a proportion of 80%. It is basically a collection of high-quality property assets across Singapore, which is quite reassuring. (There is a small amount of assets in Australia, China, Japan and Europe and the United States, but the proportion is very low.) Isn't this the kind of delicacy and purity we want?
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Next, let's take a closer look at this fund.
Southern East EnglandSRT, the full name is SRT CSOP S-REITs INDEX ETF, a core Singapore Reits portfolio fund. It focuses on investing in Singapore REITs through ETFs.
The current annual dividend is approximately 6%, the P/E ratio is 17.8%, and the debt ratio is 37%.
Achieving this performance in a high interest rate environment can be considered quite good.
The current P/E ratio is at a historical low, as shown in the chart below:
With the collapse of the US stock market, how will the global market evolve and what are the good opportunities at the moment?
The P/B ratio is also at a historical low, and the current P/B ratio is only 0.88. You know, these are real estate assets, not assets that are difficult to liquidate like company equipment and factories. It only briefly dropped below 1.0 in the 2018 crisis and the 2020 pandemic. But in these two years, as the Singapore economy has been thriving and prices have risen so much, Reits' stock prices have been depressed, and the P/B ratio has repeatedly hit new lows.
With the collapse of the US stock market, how will the global market evolve and what are the good opportunities at the moment?
The dividends are always stable, with a steady 6% annual return, even in the worst year of the epidemic, there is still a 4% dividend yield. The dividend income curve is as shown in the figure below:
With the collapse of the US stock market, how will the global market evolve and what are the good opportunities at the moment?
Of course, when looking for a partner, you can't just judge by appearance. It is important to understand their character, whether they have a good heart, and whether they love you. When investing in funds, you shouldn't just focus on the numbers, but also understand what assets they hold behind the scenes, whether they have high quality, and whether there is room for growth in the future.

The top ten holdings of SRT are as follows:
With the collapse of the US stock market, how will the global market evolve and what are the good opportunities at the moment?
You may be confused by the abbreviations of these Reits and don't know what they are.?
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Next, let me give a brief introduction to the top ten components:
Among them
1~3 are the three brothers of Keppel Group.
4~6 are the three brothers of Frasers Group.
7~8 are the two brothers of Keppel Group.
1. CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) $CapLand IntCom T (C38U.SG)$
Overview: CapitaLand Commercial Trust is the largest commercial real estate investment trust in Singapore, established in 2002. The trust invests in high-quality shopping malls and commercial properties in Singapore, with a strong asset portfolio that includes iconic landmarks such as Marina Bay Sands shopping mall and Tampines Mall.
Main Assets: CICT's main assets include large shopping malls, office buildings, and mixed-use commercial properties. These properties are widely distributed in Singapore's central business district and other major commercial areas, attracting a multitude of international and local retail brands and commercial tenants.
Prominent Properties
With the collapse of the US stock market, how will the global market evolve and what are the good opportunities at the moment?
Ascendas REIT, under CapitaLand Group, is one of Singapore's largest and most diversified industrial and commercial real estate investment trust funds. A-REIT was established in November 2002 as Singapore's first listed industrial real estate investment trust, focusing on investment and management of various types of industrial and commercial properties.
2. CapitalandAscendas Reit, A-REIT
Ascendas REIT, under CapitaLand Group, is one of Singapore's largest and most diversified industrial and commercial real estate investment trust funds. A-REIT was established in November 2002 as Singapore's first listed industrial real estate investment trust, focusing on investment and management of various types of industrial and commercial properties.
Main Assets: A-REIT's assets include logistics facilities, industrial parks, technology parks, and data centers, distributed in countries and regions such as Singapore (main location), Australia, and Japan. A-REIT benefits from the rapid growth of e-commerce and the strengthening of regional supply chains. Examples include Changi Business Park (Singapore): a major business park in Singapore that attracts numerous regional headquarters of financial services and technology companies. Nexus@one-north (Singapore): located in Singapore's main technology park, One-North, providing high-tech R&D facilities and office space. Science Park I & II (Singapore): offering research and development facilities, primarily serving the high-tech and biomedical sectors. Macquarie Park (Australia): an important business district in Sydney, providing modern office space for the information technology and communication industries. Data Centres in UK & US: possessing multiple data center assets in the UK and US to meet the growing global demand for data storage and management.
Short-term dividend yield decline: Due to the usual price adjustment after bonus shares are distributed, the short-term dividend yield (i.e. the ratio of dividend per share to stock price) may change. If the stock price quickly rebounds, the yield may recover, but if the stock price remains at a lower level, the yield may decrease. Ascott Residence Trust (ART)
Overview: Also a Reits under the Keppel Group. Ascott Residence Trust is one of the world's largest listed hotel and serviced apartment trusts, mainly investing in serviced apartments and hotel properties in Asia Pacific, Europe, and the United States.
Main assets: ART's asset portfolio includes serviced apartments, hotels, and leased residences, covering different brands and positions, such as Ascott, Citadines, and Somerset. These properties are mostly located in major cities and commercial centers, attracting business travelers and long-term guests.
4. Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT)
Renamed as Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust after the merger of Frasers Asia $Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr (N2IU.SG)$
Overview: MapleTree Commercial Trust focuses on commercial property investments, including shopping malls, office buildings, and mixed-use commercial properties. MCT's assets are mainly concentrated in Singapore and have multiple high-quality properties.
Main Assets: MCT's main assets include VivoCity, one of the largest shopping malls in Singapore, as well as high-quality office buildings like MapleTree Business City and MapleTree Anson. One more city in Hong Kong is a non-Singapore property held by Mapletree after the merger. MCT is known for its strategically located high-quality property portfolio and stable tenant base.
About Mapletree, I have previously written a column that you can refer to.
With the collapse of the US stock market, how will the global market evolve and what are the good opportunities at the moment?
Singapore's largest shopping mall, connecting the main island and Sentosa.
5. Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT)
Overview: Mapletree Industrial Trust primarily invests in industrial properties and data centers, with properties located in Singapore and North America.
Main Assets: MIT's assets include industrial factories, business parks, and data centers, with major tenants in the manufacturing, information technology, and data services sectors. MIT benefits from the rapid development of the digital economy, particularly strong demand in the data center sector.
6. Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT)
Overview: Mapletree Logistics Trust focuses on logistics and industrial property investments in the Asia-Pacific region and is one of the largest logistics real estate investment trusts in the region.
Key assets: MLT's properties are widely spread across multiple markets including Singapore, China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Its main assets include modern logistics parks and warehousing facilities. With the growth of global trade and e-commerce, the demand for logistics real estate continues to rise. MLT, with its high-quality logistics facilities and strategic locations, benefits from the industry's long-term growth trend.
7. Keppel DC REIT
Overview: Keppel DC REIT is the first real estate investment trust in Singapore that focuses on data centers. It was established in 2014 and primarily invests in high-quality data center assets in Asia-Pacific and Europe.
Key assets: Keppel DC REIT's portfolio includes multiple data centers located in Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Germany, and the United Kingdom. These data centers provide highly secure and efficient server hosting services for businesses. The data center market continues to grow, benefiting from the increasing demand for cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and data storage. Keppel DC REIT, with its specialization and strategic asset allocation, is able to consistently benefit from this trend.
8. Keppel REIT
Overview: Keppel REIT primarily invests in high-quality office buildings in Singapore and Australia, providing premium office spaces.
Key assets: Its main assets include iconic office buildings in Singapore such as Marina Bay Financial Centre and Ocean Financial Centre, as well as prime office properties in several core cities in Australia. Keppel REIT's properties are typically located in central business districts and have high-quality tenants such as financial institutions and multinational companies.
94. Frasers Property Trust (FPT)
Overview: Frasers Property Trust focuses on investing in retail and industrial properties, covering markets in Singapore and other regions.
Key assets: FPT's portfolio includes shopping centers, commercial properties, and industrial logistics facilities, spanning across regions such as Singapore, Australia, and Europe. With its quality assets and strong management team, FPT is able to maintain stable performance in different market environments. Its retail properties benefit from consumer recovery, while industrial properties benefit from the growth in logistics demand.
10Suntec REIT is a real estate investment trust listed on the Singapore Exchange, established in December 2004. It primarily invests in commercial properties, including office buildings, retail properties, and convention centers. Suntec REIT's investment portfolio is widely distributed in key cities in Singapore and Australia, making it one of the important commercial real estate investment trusts in the Asia-Pacific region.
Main assets: The main assets are office buildings, retail properties, and convention centers in prime locations in Singapore. Among them, Suntec City is the flagship asset, including one of Singapore's largest shopping malls, Suntec City Mall, and a cluster of office buildings. Suntec City is located on the edge of Singapore's Central Business District, with a superior geographical location. It is a comprehensive commercial project that integrates offices, shopping, entertainment, and conferences. Suntec City also has the Suntec Convention and Exhibition Centre, one of Singapore's primary venues for conferences and exhibitions. There is also One Raffles Quay, located in the heart of Singapore's Central Business District and is one of Singapore's iconic office buildings, attracting numerous multinational companies and financial institutions as tenants. Marina Bay Financial Centre is also one of Singapore's major office buildings, located in the Marina Bay Financial District, with world-class office spaces and facilities, mainly occupied by large multinational corporations and financial institutions. 177 Pacific Highway (Australia) is a high-quality office building located on the north shore of Sydney, and it is one of Suntec REIT's important assets in Australia. Southgate Complex (Australia) is located on the south bank of Melbourne and consists of office buildings and retail spaces, serving as a multi-purpose commercial complex.
It is impressive that the top three groups have almost monopolized Singapore's prime properties. As for this REIT (code: SRT) from Fraser Centrepoint Trust, owning it means owning a collection of the most core and high-quality assets in Singapore. The asset quality is leveraged, the dividends are stable, and the property assets themselves are expected to steadily improve along with Singapore's development.

Finally.I can't help but feel that the top three groups have almost monopolized Singapore's high-quality properties. As for this REIT (code: SRT), owning it means owning a collection of the most core and high-quality assets in Singapore. The asset quality is leveraged, the dividends are stable, and the property assets themselves are expected to steadily improve along with Singapore's development.
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Summary:
In the current environment, with global volatility, it is a good choice to allocate some assets with strong cash flow, stable dividends, and benefit from the Fed's interest rate cuts. Especially if the target's value is underestimated and the stock price is low, it is a relatively good opportunity. In the future, in addition to stable cash flow, asset prices are expected to further increase, providing additional returns as the valuation increases.
------------ Statement ------------
Risk Warning: Investment carries risks, please be cautious when entering the market.
This article is only a summary of personal experience and ideas. The content is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice for any individual or organization. Profits and losses are your own responsibility. I hope these ideas are helpful to you and invite everyone to exchange ideas.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only. Read more
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