Current Environment
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ To be honest, ① corporate earnings are strong ② various indicators are uniformly strong ③ The FRB is sounding the alarm for the market's optimistic views ④ Weak bidding for long-term bonds ⑤ Goldman Sachs and other predictions for rate cuts are continuously being pushed back.
In this environment, there is no reason for the FRB to hurry to cut interest rates, and I believe that under normal circumstances, bonds will be sold and interest rates are likely to rise. However, why would you dare to go against the trend at this timing and buy leveraged TMF? Are you anticipating an unexpected event leading to a hard landing? If so, wouldn't it be better to buy when such signs are observed? I still think it's easier to understand the TMV, which might move in the opposite direction in the short term (although it's not easy to say it's a good timing)... Is there something I'm missing, or is there a logical reason behind it?
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素人投資家です
コアはS&P500で個別やレバレッジETFは基本短期売買
インフルエンサーを気取る気はありませんので、あしからず
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Fire-無限スパチャ : Aren't you going to talk about the financial system? lol
トンカツ王子 : On-site investigation?
アマチュア投資家 OP Fire-無限スパチャ : Are you talking about commercial real estate? Powell stated that the restructuring of some regional banks would progress, but the performance of megabanks was strong and there were no problems overall, and I think that is the main scenario so far, but are there any other obstacles?
Fire-無限スパチャ アマチュア投資家 OP : Are you seriously reading the right article (data)?
アマチュア投資家 OP Fire-無限スパチャ : I'm sorry. If there seems to be something I've overlooked, I'd like to ask. According to my information, it only looks like a one-way market price.
Fire-無限スパチャ アマチュア投資家 OP : We do not provide free consultations or information
Megabank performance is strong ← here!
Let's talk about it again if we feel like it
アマチュア投資家 OP Fire-無限スパチャ : I didn't feel anything from the financial results of MS, GS, JM, BA, etc. that made me smell like a hard landing, but... I understand.
For my part, there are many people who recommend this product with insufficient knowledge, and I wrote a few unnecessary comments, saying that there are cases where people with a short investment history see it and get their hands on it without understanding that it is a dangerous product.
I also bought TMF quite a bit until last year, but since the clouds became suspicious at the end of the year, everything was profitable. The situation changes moment by moment, and since I am neither a prophet nor anything, predictions are changing. I'm still concerned about the BNPL issue, and if something comes to the surface, I may need to change my opinion again. The Fed's opinion is completely different from last year, and there are risks in continuing to believe in something.
Sorry for the bad post.
Fire-無限スパチャ アマチュア投資家 OP : It was fun, so I think that stance is fine, but if you invest, it's your own responsibility, so there's no need to worry about it!
There's still a long way to go! lol
The second half was good
It's good if you take 1 or 2 steps later
アマチュア投資家 OP Fire-無限スパチャ : I'm currently completely steering towards NASDAQ and semiconductors, and the answers as to which one was correct will become clear in the future. I hope we both get good results.
レナ一リーン : If you look at net profit, it's exploded, though.
BA, JPM, and C too. This was before BTFP was terminated. There are things that are better not to go against the Fed, but complying too much is also a problem. I've failed so many times in the past. Let's evaluate financial results from economic indicators. Settlement is everything.
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