⭐️ The definitive outlook for US bond supply and demand factors for the first half of 2024
February new issuance of 121 billion dollars ➡️ Liberal repo decline accelerates
Commercial real estate loan refinancing peak in March
End of March ➡️ Liberal Repo Depletion March FOMC ➡️ QT Reduction Announcement
April Counter Lending & SRF Operation Begins
May US Government Buyback Program Begins
FOMC ➡️ interest rate cuts begin in June
⭐️ Interest rate and stock price forecasts associated with the above factors
Interest rates/stock prices
February ↔️ ↔️
March ⤴️ ⤵️
April ⤵️ ⤴️
May ⤵️ ⤴️
June ⤴️ ⤵️
*Since excess money will play a decline in interest rates and stock appreciation due to various mitigations and interest rate cuts until 6/12 FOMC, the 6/12 interest rate cut will cause a profit rush and stock prices will be adjusted
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182759896 : Interest rate cuts are in September/February, and stock prices fall during the fund's settlement period in March. The reason it goes up is to secure profit.
ネコくまモン : Thank you, Brother Pow, for your continuous insight! Your point of view will be a learning experience!
TakuT : ＞ March commercial real estate loan refinancing peak
What is likely to happen to regional banks due to this?
I think “interest rates are high, but demand is low due to working from home.”
it fell rapidly...