⭐️ The definitive outlook for US bond supply and demand factors for the first half of 2024
February new issuance of 121 billion dollars ➡️ Liberal repo decline accelerates
Commercial real estate loan refinancing peak in March
End of March ➡️ Liberal Repo Depletion March FOMC ➡️ QT Reduction Announcement
April Counter Lending & SRF Operation Begins
May US Government Buyback Program Begins
FOMC ➡️ interest rate cuts begin in June
⭐️ Interest rate and stock price forecasts associated with the above factors
Interest rates/stock prices
February ↔️ ↔️
March ⤴️ ⤵️
April ⤵️ ⤴️
May ⤵️ ⤴️
June ⤴️ ⤵️
*Since excess money will play a decline in interest rates and stock appreciation due to various mitigations and interest rate cuts until 6/12 FOMC, the 6/12 interest rate cut will cause a profit rush and stock prices will be adjusted
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めいちゃんの羊
:
Interest rate cuts are in September/February, and stock prices fall during the fund's settlement period in March. The reason it goes up is to secure profit.
TakuT
:
> March commercial real estate loan refinancing peak
What is likely to happen to regional banks due to this? I think “interest rates are high, but demand is low due to working from home.” it fell rapidly...
Following the introduction of China's groundbreaking DeepSeek technology, Wall Street giants have revised their investment outlooks for the Chinese market.
めいちゃんの羊 : Interest rate cuts are in September/February, and stock prices fall during the fund's settlement period in March. The reason it goes up is to secure profit.
ネコくまモン : Thank you, Brother Pow, for your continuous insight! Your point of view will be a learning experience!
TakuT : > March commercial real estate loan refinancing peak
What is likely to happen to regional banks due to this?
I think “interest rates are high, but demand is low due to working from home.”
it fell rapidly...