Now, the weakening of the yen is the biggest concern for the stock market.
Many people, including myself,"If the yen weakens, the Nikkei Average will rise," "At least it won't go down," "Export-intensive large cap stocks will rise."It seems that this is the perception.
However, even hereA change of mindset is necessary.I would like to confirm the situation that I heard about while looking at the chart.
This is a chart of the correlation coefficient between Nikkei futures and USD/JPY.
The correlation coefficient, as the name suggests,represents the correlation state between the two.At 1.0, it represents perfect correlation. At -1.0, it represents perfect inverse correlation, and at 0, it represents no correlation.Perfect correlation means that if A goes up, B is also always going up, or if A goes down, B is also going down.It will be.
If A goes up, B is also always going up, or if A goes down, B is also going down.
Whether the stock price goes up or down, if both move in the same direction, the correlation coefficient will be positive, so it is easy to get confused when the stock price is falling.
Whether the stock price goes up or down, if both move in the same direction, the correlation coefficient will be positive, so it is easy to get confused when the stock price is falling.
On the other hand, when the correlation coefficient is negative, it is called inverse correlation, which means that if A goes up, B goes down, and if A goes down, B goes up, resulting in opposite movements between the two.
And, 0 (zero): the yellow dotted line represents "no correlation", which is a bit confusing to imagine.
This means that there is no correlation between the movements of A and B, as the name implies. In other words, even if A goes up, B may go up or down, indicating that their movements are not synchronized.
This means that there is no correlation between the movements of A and B, as the name implies. In other words, even if A goes up, B may go up or down, indicating that their movements are not synchronized.
RoughlyCorrelation exists when it is +0.5 or higher, -0.5 or lower, and there is quite a correlation when it is +0.75 or higher, -0.75 or lower.It is determined as such.
Positive for positive correlation, negative for inverse correlation.I am called.
And between 0 There is no correlation between -0.5 and +0.5. ... And I determine that.
Positive for positive correlation, negative for inverse correlation.I am called.
And between 0 There is no correlation between -0.5 and +0.5. ... And I determine that.
Now, let's get to the point.
Looking at the chart, the correlation coefficient has dropped sharply since 4/1, and the current situation is around -0.20.
You can see that the correlation coefficient that had been above +0.75 from mid-January to the end of March has sharply declined since 4/1.
Looking at the chart, the correlation coefficient has dropped sharply since 4/1, and the current situation is around -0.20.
You can see that the correlation coefficient that had been above +0.75 from mid-January to the end of March has sharply declined since 4/1.
This indicates that even when the USD/JPY rises, indicating a weaker yen, the Nikkei futures are not able to rise.
There is a sense of reality, isn't there?
There is a sense of reality, isn't there?
The correlation coefficient has been decreasing since the USD/JPY exceeded 150 yen.That's why.
Not since June, but since the beginning of April.This trend has been going on since the beginning of April.So I haven't been sharing anything like "the yen continues to weaken, so Japanese stocks are solid" in my videos.
Not since June, but since the beginning of April.This trend has been going on since the beginning of April.So I haven't been sharing anything like "the yen continues to weaken, so Japanese stocks are solid" in my videos.
Rather, Japanese stocks are heavy on the upside, separate from USD/JPY.In addition to USD/JPY, Japanese stocks are heavy on the upside.Kept saying that.
The current correlation coefficient represents the impact of the dollar-yen as "zero".is the reason.
The current correlation coefficient represents the impact of the dollar-yen as "zero".is the reason.
When looking at the chart, you can notice such market changes.。
Investing and trading is all about how to keep up with market changes... so I think it's important to be able to make these small mindset changes swiftly.
Investing and trading is all about how to keep up with market changes... so I think it's important to be able to make these small mindset changes swiftly.
In other words, the current depreciation of the yen is
- not at all leading to expectations of a stock market rally.
・There is no good thing about the market being nervous about currency intervention.
・There is a risk that the current low volatility will jump up due to currency intervention.
That's the only disadvantage in short-term trading.
- not at all leading to expectations of a stock market rally.
・There is no good thing about the market being nervous about currency intervention.
・There is a risk that the current low volatility will jump up due to currency intervention.
That's the only disadvantage in short-term trading.
It is wrong to sell PUT options or choose individual stocks in the belief that the Nikkei Average will not fall or will be difficult to fall due to the depreciation of the yen. It's okay if you judge that it won't fall for reasons other than the USD/JPY rate.
If you only invest based on fundamentals and disregard charts, it may be difficult to notice such changes.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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アリエルマーリン : I think that's true. If the yen falls, foreign investors' unrealized gains will decrease, so I would like it to be around 150 yen. I wonder if around 145 yen would be the best.
にゃ子 : Not only dollars and yen, but other currencies are getting cheaper.
I think that means it's weak rather than cheap.
The government is simply at the mercy of export companies.
If the yen continues to depreciate, our prices will only continue to rise.
Japan is the only country that takes policies that weaken its national currency. Will the profits of major companies ever be reflected in us?
I would like to hope...
182957142 : How much should I pay?
182076928鬼平 : It's Onihei
Good morning.
It's very helpful.
I'm looking forward to it in the future.
We look forward to working with you