The depreciation of the yen is now the biggest warning factor for stock depreciation!
Many people, myself included“If the yen depreciates, the Nikkei Average will rise,” “at least it won't fall,” “large export stocks will rise.”I think that's the perception.
But here tooI need a mindset changeI would like to confirm the story that we are in such a situation... while looking at the chart.
This is a chart of the correlation coefficient between Nikkei futures and the dollar and yen.
As the name suggests, the correlation coefficientThe state of correlation between the twoIt represents,1.0 is the max and 1.0 is fully correlated. -1.0 for perfect inverse correlation, and 0 for no correlationIt will be.
Perfect correlation means that if A goes up, B always goes up, or if A goes down, all B also goes down.
Whether the stock price rises or falls, if both sides move in the same direction, the correlation coefficient will be positive, so it's easy to get confused when stock prices are falling.
Whether the stock price rises or falls, if both sides move in the same direction, the correlation coefficient will be positive, so it's easy to get confused when stock prices are falling.
On the other hand, when the correlation coefficient is negative, it is called inverse correlation, and if A goes up, B goes down, and if A goes down, B goes up... it's the exact opposite of both.
Also, 0 (zero): The yellow dotted line shows “no correlation,” although the image is a bit more confusing.
As the name suggests, this indicates that there is no correlation between the movements of A and B... In other words, it shows that even if A goes up, B goes up and down and falls apart.
As the name suggests, this indicates that there is no correlation between the movements of A and B... In other words, it shows that even if A goes up, B goes up and down and falls apart.
roughlyCorrelated at +0.5 or more, -0.5 or less, and quite correlated at +0.75 or lessIt will be judged as.
Positive correlation is forward correlation, negative correlation is reverseIt's called.
And with 0 in betweenThere is no correlation between -0.5 and +0.5I will judge that...
Positive correlation is forward correlation, negative correlation is reverseIt's called.
And with 0 in betweenThere is no correlation between -0.5 and +0.5I will judge that...
Now, let's get to the main subject.
Looking at the chart, the correlation coefficient dropped sharply after 4/1, and the current situation is -0.20 and is wandering around zero.
I think you can see that the correlation coefficient remained at +0.75 or higher from mid-January to the end of March, but plummeted after 4/1.
Looking at the chart, the correlation coefficient dropped sharply after 4/1, and the current situation is -0.20 and is wandering around zero.
I think you can see that the correlation coefficient remained at +0.75 or higher from mid-January to the end of March, but plummeted after 4/1.
This shows that Nikkei futures have not been able to rise even if the dollar and yen rise = yen depreciates.
It's a real feeling, isn't it?
It's a real feeling, isn't it?
The correlation coefficient has declined since the dollar and yen exceeded 150 yenThat's why.
Not since the beginning of June...This trend since the beginning of AprilIt has become. So I haven't posted anything about “Japanese stocks are solid because the yen continues to depreciate” in the video.
Not since the beginning of June...This trend since the beginning of AprilIt has become. So I haven't posted anything about “Japanese stocks are solid because the yen continues to depreciate” in the video.
rather,Apart from the dollar and yen, “Japanese stocks have a heavy upper price”I kept saying that.
The current correlation coefficient shows “zero” influence of the dollar and yenIt's from there.
The current correlation coefficient shows “zero” influence of the dollar and yenIt's from there.
If you look at the chart, you can notice these changes in the market。
Investments and trading are about how we can keep up with changes in market prices... so I think it's important how quickly we can make such detailed mindset changes.
Investments and trading are about how we can keep up with changes in market prices... so I think it's important how quickly we can make such detailed mindset changes.
In other words, the current depreciation of the yen
・There is no expectation of stock appreciation at all
・There is nothing wrong with just making the market nervous due to exchange intervention
・There is a risk that the current low volatility will jump due to exchange intervention
It means that there are only disadvantages in short-term trading.
・There is no expectation of stock appreciation at all
・There is nothing wrong with just making the market nervous due to exchange intervention
・There is a risk that the current low volatility will jump due to exchange intervention
It means that there are only disadvantages in short-term trading.
It is a mistake to sell PUT or select individual stocks in that direction with the recognition that the Nikkei Average will not fall because of the depreciation of the yen, or that it will be difficult to lower it. It would be nice if they decided that it wouldn't fall for reasons other than the dollar to yen.
If you disregard charts and invest only in fundamentals, I think it will be difficult to notice these changes.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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アリエルマーリン : I think that's true. If the yen falls, foreign investors' unrealized gains will decrease, so I would like it to be around 150 yen. I wonder if around 145 yen would be the best.
にゃ子 : Not only dollars and yen, but other currencies are getting cheaper.
I think that means it's weak rather than cheap.
The government is simply at the mercy of export companies.
If the yen continues to depreciate, our prices will only continue to rise.
Japan is the only country that takes policies that weaken its national currency. Will the profits of major companies ever be reflected in us?
I would like to hope...
182957142 : How much should I pay?
182076928鬼平 : It's Onihei
Good morning.
It's very helpful.
I'm looking forward to it in the future.
We look forward to working with you