The dollar and Asian stocks declined after Biden announced his withdrawal from the election (1)
The US dollar and Asian stock markets declined. Biden previously announced his withdrawal from the 2024 US presidential election and supported He Jinli to take over the fight.
Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index $USD(USDindex.FX$The Mexican peso climbed as it fell 0.2% on Monday.
In the face of continuous pressure from within the Democratic Party, Biden had to give up his re-election campaign and withdraw from the November general election. The Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower, and the Australian stock market also weakened. Hong Kong stock index futures remained stable.
The question facing investors is whether it is still necessary to stick to the Trump deal since Biden has given up his re-election campaign.
The market is likely to fluctuate greatly. Traders are waiting to see if He Jinli can be nominated by the party, and at the same time weigh whether she can gather enough momentum to challenge Trump's current leading position in the polls.
“People's subconscious reaction is that this is bad for the dollar, but it's still too early to draw conclusions,” said Olga Yangor, head of emerging market research and strategy at Crédit Agricole.
“This will largely depend on He Jinli's initial appearance, her choice of running partner, and swing state polls.”
On the commodities side, crude oil and gold prices rose in early trading.
Biden's withdrawal is more volatile, and the market is more volatile
Is the “Trump deal” still in effect?
Now, investors will be busy deciding whether US President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and support Vice President He Jinli will increase or decrease Trump's chances of regaining power.
The earliest time for traders to respond was early Asian trading on Monday, and foreign exchange market trading will pick up at that time. In Sydney, the dollar was lower against the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar.
Zachary Griffiths, head of US investment grade and macro strategy at CreditSights, said, “The first effect of the statement should be an increase in uncertainty, which usually drives the market's risk appetite to decline: the stock market sells off and shifts to high-quality assets.”
A disastrous debate raised concerns about whether 81-year-old Biden would be able to serve another term as president. Over the next few weeks, financial markets lowered the possibility of Biden being re-elected.
They are generally optimistic that they will benefit from Trump's proposed loose fiscal policies, higher trade tariffs, and less regulated deals.
The specific symptoms are: the US dollar is supported, US bond yields are rising, and bank stocks, medical stocks, energy stocks, and Bitcoin are rising.
The question facing investors is whether to stick to these deals now that Biden has given up his re-election campaign.
Market trends are likely to fluctuate as investors wait and see if He Jinli can lock in nominations within the party and weigh whether she can gather enough momentum to challenge Trump's leading position in the polls.
Is the “Trump deal” still in effect?
Now, investors will be busy deciding whether US President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and support Vice President He Jinli will increase or decrease Trump's chances of regaining power.
The earliest time for traders to respond was early Asian trading on Monday, and foreign exchange market trading will pick up at that time. In Sydney, the dollar was lower against the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar.
Zachary Griffiths, head of US investment grade and macro strategy at CreditSights, said, “The first effect of the statement should be an increase in uncertainty, which usually drives the market's risk appetite to decline: the stock market sells off and shifts to high-quality assets.”
A disastrous debate raised concerns about whether 81-year-old Biden would be able to serve another term as president. Over the next few weeks, financial markets lowered the possibility of Biden being re-elected.
They are generally optimistic that they will benefit from Trump's proposed loose fiscal policies, higher trade tariffs, and less regulated deals.
The specific symptoms are: the US dollar is supported, US bond yields are rising, and bank stocks, medical stocks, energy stocks, and Bitcoin are rising.
The question facing investors is whether to stick to these deals now that Biden has given up his re-election campaign.
Market trends are likely to fluctuate as investors wait and see if He Jinli can lock in nominations within the party and weigh whether she can gather enough momentum to challenge Trump's leading position in the polls.
“Investors should expect volatility to soar,” Roundhill Finance CEO Dave Mazza said before the news was announced on Sunday.
“If Vice President He Jinli can quickly mobilize to have a substantial impact on Trump, then we should expect the fluctuation to continue.”
“However, if Trump continues to lead the polls and investors consider his victory inevitable, then the 'Trump Deal' will prevail and volatility will decline.”
“If Vice President He Jinli can quickly mobilize to have a substantial impact on Trump, then we should expect the fluctuation to continue.”
“However, if Trump continues to lead the polls and investors consider his victory inevitable, then the 'Trump Deal' will prevail and volatility will decline.”
There is little historical data to decipher how the market will react. The most recent example of an incumbent president not seeking re-election was Lyndon Johnson in 1968.
GlobalData.ts. Lombard's managing director of global policy research, wrote in a July 17 report that the Democratic Party's replacement candidate meant that “the Trump deal will falter as the market readjusts its chances.”
However, she said that if He Jinli becomes the final candidate, these bets “are unlikely to change much.”
Bonds and currency
If Trump's re-entry into the White House is more likely, outsiders generally expect the dollar to be boosted.
Trump's preferred combination of low taxes and high tariffs is thought to stimulate inflation and interest rates, thereby increasing the dollar's appeal. Due to the safe haven status of the US dollar, the US dollar will also have higher demand in uncertain times.
Faced with the appreciation of the US dollar, the Mexican peso, the yuan, etc. may become losers.
However, last week, “Bloomberg Businessweek” published an interview with Trump in June. Trump said that a strong dollar harms America's competitiveness. His campaign partner James Vance also raised this view in the past. After the interview was published, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the yuan and yen fell last week.
GlobalData.ts. Lombard's managing director of global policy research, wrote in a July 17 report that the Democratic Party's replacement candidate meant that “the Trump deal will falter as the market readjusts its chances.”
However, she said that if He Jinli becomes the final candidate, these bets “are unlikely to change much.”
Bonds and currency
If Trump's re-entry into the White House is more likely, outsiders generally expect the dollar to be boosted.
Trump's preferred combination of low taxes and high tariffs is thought to stimulate inflation and interest rates, thereby increasing the dollar's appeal. Due to the safe haven status of the US dollar, the US dollar will also have higher demand in uncertain times.
Faced with the appreciation of the US dollar, the Mexican peso, the yuan, etc. may become losers.
However, last week, “Bloomberg Businessweek” published an interview with Trump in June. Trump said that a strong dollar harms America's competitiveness. His campaign partner James Vance also raised this view in the past. After the interview was published, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the yuan and yen fell last week.
“We don't think this is the right deal,” Barclays strategists said in a Sunday report.
“We believe that Trump's second term will mean a further strengthening of the dollar, and the recent decline provides a good level to re-hold our recommended bulls (such as USD/RMB).”
“We believe that Trump's second term will mean a further strengthening of the dollar, and the recent decline provides a good level to re-hold our recommended bulls (such as USD/RMB).”
It's too early to predict
The conclusion that Trump will trigger inflation will also infiltrate the world's largest bond market. Traders are starting to buy short-term bonds and sell longer-term bonds, also known as steep transactions.
“As He Jinli's chances of winning increased, so did the Democratic Party's chances of winning the House of Representatives,” said Steven Englund, a New York-based strategist at Standard Chartered Bank.
“If the situation evolves this way, then fears of further fiscal stimulus may abate, reducing pressure on interest rates and the dollar. However, it is still too early, and the election campaign may be very different from what was expected even two weeks ago.”
“If the situation evolves this way, then fears of further fiscal stimulus may abate, reducing pressure on interest rates and the dollar. However, it is still too early, and the election campaign may be very different from what was expected even two weeks ago.”
Political unrest intensifies
Analysts comment on prospects:
Market observers said that since the November election is now less than four months away, political factors are likely to exacerbate Wall Street unrest, at least in the short term.
However, after Biden's disastrous debates, the once heated “Trump deal proposal” (making more energy companies, banks, and Bitcoin, shorting electric vehicles and renewable energy) may be impacted by the US president's withdrawal from the election.
Here's what investors are saying:
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Phoenix Financial Services Chief Market Analyst: Wayne Kaufman
Market observers said that since the November election is now less than four months away, political factors are likely to exacerbate Wall Street unrest, at least in the short term.
However, after Biden's disastrous debates, the once heated “Trump deal proposal” (making more energy companies, banks, and Bitcoin, shorting electric vehicles and renewable energy) may be impacted by the US president's withdrawal from the election.
Here's what investors are saying:
I wish we had fewer historic events. Just last week, my team was still discussing the impact of the assassination attempt on the market.
In the midst of all this uncertainty, it remains to be discussed whether people who bought on dips will return to the market.
Valuation has always been an issue. Optimism about artificial intelligence largely supports the market, and we are about to enter August and September. These two months have historically been weak months for the market. But overall, it's a historic market.
In the midst of all this uncertainty, it remains to be discussed whether people who bought on dips will return to the market.
Valuation has always been an issue. Optimism about artificial intelligence largely supports the market, and we are about to enter August and September. These two months have historically been weak months for the market. But overall, it's a historic market.
Now there's more uncertainty. We don't have many precedents where candidates haven't gone through a normal primary election process.
While we may feel like we're used to everything but normal, it's still a “big spoonful” of uncertainty to digest.
While we may feel like we're used to everything but normal, it's still a “big spoonful” of uncertainty to digest.
Trump deals such as Bitcoin and energy will begin to close, and some affected trades such as solar energy or electric vehicle stocks will also rebound.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and the market doesn't like this. From now until Labor Day in the US, and through September, we'll see a huge spike in volatility.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and the market doesn't like this. From now until Labor Day in the US, and through September, we'll see a huge spike in volatility.
The Trump deal is likely to take a breather until the Democratic nominees become more clear. Broadly speaking, this incident has injected more political uncertainty into the market, which may cause some recent market fluctuations.
Eventually, uncertainty grew higher. Now, what does this mean for futures opening? That's still unclear.
Bitcoin fluctuates a bit. But we've also just had a chaotic week, and I don't think this has much to do with Trump.
I think this is more due to the weakening economy and the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. At the end of the day, there are many situations, and there is more uncertainty.
Bitcoin fluctuates a bit. But we've also just had a chaotic week, and I don't think this has much to do with Trump.
I think this is more due to the weakening economy and the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. At the end of the day, there are many situations, and there is more uncertainty.
The immediate effect was that it added uncertainty to the rhetoric of the dominant Republican Party sweeping the market. Other than that, everything remains unknown until the Democratic candidates become more clear.
Prior to that, the market had begun to absorb President Biden's withdrawal from the election campaign. The “Trump deal” (if it does exist) is hard to distinguish from the fact that the market rotates towards small-cap stocks due to potential interest rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September. The only thing that seems to stand out in the current Trump deal is the rise in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as Trump is seen as more favorable to this asset class.
The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September. The only thing that seems to stand out in the current Trump deal is the rise in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as Trump is seen as more favorable to this asset class.
Pessimism looms over horse stocks
As for Malaysian stocks, they are also subject to certain fluctuations. $FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index(.KLSE.MY$As soon as the market opened in early trading, it fell all the way from 1637 points. As of 11:00 it reached 1,619 points, down 1.06%.
How long do you think it will take for the market to digest, and will Malaysian stocks fall below 1,600 points as a result?
Source: Nanyang Siang Pao
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only, and does not constitute any specific investment, investment strategy, or recommendation endorsement. The reader shall bear any risk and responsibility arising from reliance on this content. Always conduct your own independent research and evaluation and consult professional advice if necessary before making any investment decisions. The author and related participants are not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from the use or reliance on the information contained in this article.
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