The ETF exchange selling trap that had no impact this time either

That's all the titles for this time! (lol)

The content is painful for those who actually suffered losses, but even so, I think it's important to make use of it next time. So I'll write it.

I've talked about it over and over again in the video, and I've been saying the same thing every time for the past 2 years,There was almost no such thing as lowering ETF exchange sales to generate distributions this time either。

It's not that it hasn't happened... it's that although there is an impact, of course, there is a movement to make up for it and avoid it, and more than that, it means that you can't beat the situation and mood at that time with just the right amount of money.The market will be factored in to this extent。

Assuming that sales demand of about 1.2 trillion yen will come out from 1 trillion yen on the 8th and 10th this time, I think there were many people who thought that this would cause selling pressure and stock prices would drop. Every time, analysts and economists call this repeatedly in the media, so that probably has an impact.

However, as a medium, it is necessary to convey facts, and since the content is catchy, which is even easier to understand, various commentators explain this every year in July.

That said,I'm not saying “going down”. Of course I can't send messages with that kind of contentI just said “there will be a sale”What is it.

Okay, thisAren't you interpreting it as “then stocks will fall”?
In other words,The recipient has arbitrarily completed the information in the wrong directionThat's it.

Financial products such as stocks and bondsAlways buyer before sellerIt's there.

If sales of 1 trillion yen come out on the 8th and 10th and become cheaper, and on top of that, if funding and conditions have not deteriorated,Buyers who naturally want to buy cheaper placesThey are there too, right?

In other words,“Will sell” ⇒ “it will be cheaper” is an idea that is only viewed from one sideI can say that.

If it is possible to predict that the root of stock price increases expectations such as “performance will be bad” and “bad headlines are likely to come out” will deteriorate,
“Let's run away before the cash sale comes out”It becomes cheaper.
However, this means that the ETF will start moving before the due date for sale.

Also, the ETF side isn't that stupid, soIn order to sell as high as possible, sell some percent after deciding in advance that it is expensiveI'm here.

So not all 1.2 trillion yen will move on the 8th and 10th. I'll try to attract them on due date as much as possible.

And if they simply sell temporarily by drawing up distributions, people who want to get ahead of it and buy it cheaply will line up in the first place. So we're in a situation where it doesn't drop much.

This is importantIt is.

The fundamentals haven't deteriorated, andStock prices don't drop due to events where the schedule and price are knownThat's it. Of course,It won't even go up。

If it moved, it means there was another reason, and the exchange sale had an effect! There is also an adverse effect of thinking and not being able to search for the right reason.

Big sales will come out on the 8th and 10th this time too, so I think the people who pre-sold in the first week of July thought that next week would drop and that the upper price would be heavy. Well this time it has skyrocketed too much, but at leastIf you knew the schedule and price scale and knew that it wouldn't drop much due to sales factors, you were able to avoid an easy selling lineI think it might be.

What makes stock prices moveA sudden event where the “when” or “scale” is unknown, or where both are unknownIt is.
Since the market is already factored into events where both are known, stock prices don't move much.

The Nikkei spot closing price on 7/5 (Friday) was 40,912 yen.

The closing price on 7/8 (Monday) was 40780 yen and certainly dropped. It dropped sharply due to closing, so I think this was an effect of cash sales, but at most it was a drop of about 100 yen.

Then, on 7/9 (Tuesday), there was a sharp rise close to 1000 yen at one point, and 7/10 (Wednesday), which is written on this, is the day when the big sales in question come out, but it has turned back to an increase. So, it's around 41,660 yen.

As a result, the 10 day high since last weekend has risen by more than 800 yen.

Individuals who determined this last week that stocks would fall due to ETF exchange sales... were burnt by a short, and failed to take up the rise due to profits that were too quick.

This is no goodI mean, that's right.

If you decide that “stocks will fall due to ETF exchange sales” this time and things don't go well, by all meansWrite it in your investment notebook and prepare for six monthsplease. What is a similar storyThe same goes for hedge fund sales and demand in November and tax countermeasure exchange sales in DecemberIt is.

This kind of topic is repeated 4 to 5 times a year, but stock prices don't move much every timeIt is.
Seasonal doesn't do much work, and the same goes for the fact that I feel like I've worked but when I get the data, I don't have much of an advantage.

I'll write it again,If stock prices move in the direction you think with “easy to understand” and “understandable” information, it's not this easy. It is necessary for entertainers and entertainers to fall into the trap of visibility, but we individual investors do not need it.

Conversely, if you make a desire to buy it, you can do it, so it's like thisIt is recognized only that stock prices do not move in exchange sales material for ETFs and fundsThen, I think it would be a good idea to construct a sense of market price with other information.