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Federal Reserve personnel changes
The most certain thing in the market next year is that volatility will increase. In addition to Trump's policies and the Fed's easing of rate cuts, there is another issue to pay attention to, which is the composition of the Federal Reserve's committee. Bloomberg pointed out that next year, committee members may have greater disagreements in their voting than this year.
Every year, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee FOMC rotates. In 2025, Collins from the Boston Fed, Moulton from the St. Louis Fed, Schmitz from the Kansas City Fed, and Goolsbee from the Chicago Fed will become rotating voters. According to InTouch Capital Markets' evaluation, Goolsbee is the most dovish, while Schmitz and Moulton are quite hawkish. Bloomberg's Anna Wong team pointed out that according to their analysis, the views among the 2025 voters will be more polarized, with fewer leaning towards the center, making Powell's unified work more challenging. It is expected that next year, there will be more uncertainty and more divergence in Fed voting.
Bloomberg pointed out that the current Federal Reserve is in a more uncertain environment. Although inflation has declined significantly, it still remains above the Fed's target, and there will be various policy impacts from Trump in the future. The neutral interest rate is also uncertain, so officials do not know whether a rate cut will be needed in the future, and if so, how much it should be cut to prevent the previous anti-inflation efforts from being in vain. This, coupled with a more diversified committee, means that next year's Fed will not be as easy to determine as this year.
Every year, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee FOMC rotates. In 2025, Collins from the Boston Fed, Moulton from the St. Louis Fed, Schmitz from the Kansas City Fed, and Goolsbee from the Chicago Fed will become rotating voters. According to InTouch Capital Markets' evaluation, Goolsbee is the most dovish, while Schmitz and Moulton are quite hawkish. Bloomberg's Anna Wong team pointed out that according to their analysis, the views among the 2025 voters will be more polarized, with fewer leaning towards the center, making Powell's unified work more challenging. It is expected that next year, there will be more uncertainty and more divergence in Fed voting.
Bloomberg pointed out that the current Federal Reserve is in a more uncertain environment. Although inflation has declined significantly, it still remains above the Fed's target, and there will be various policy impacts from Trump in the future. The neutral interest rate is also uncertain, so officials do not know whether a rate cut will be needed in the future, and if so, how much it should be cut to prevent the previous anti-inflation efforts from being in vain. This, coupled with a more diversified committee, means that next year's Fed will not be as easy to determine as this year.
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