The forecast that the yen carry will rewind and continue even after about 50% completion = UBS

8/7/2024 5:18 AM GMT+9

UBS analysts estimated on the 6th that the reversal of the yen carry trade, which had an impact on the global market, is currently at a stage where about 50% has been completed, and indicated the prospect that it will continue.
UBS Japan macro strategist James Malcolm pointed out in a memo for customers dated 6th that dollar/yen carry trade expanded to at least 50 billion dollars during peak periods. It showed an estimate that there has been a rewind of about 20 billion dollars in the past 2 to 3 weeks, and it was stated that the rewind was not over.
On top of that, he pointed out that the extent to which it will be resolved in the future “is not the level of interest rate differences, but is greatly influenced by changes in interest rate differences.” “Compared to 1998, when a rapid rewind occurred, it is expected that a further rewind will progress.”