The general exchange rate is “going to the bottom”, and the appreciation of the yen seems to have come to an end!

　Well, the stock market from mid-July to late July was rough around the world. The Nikkei Stock Average (Zalaba basis) was sold to a high price of 0.04 million2426 yen on 7/11 and to a low of 0.03 million7611 yen on the 26th. It's a crash close to panic. The depreciation range is 4815 yen, and the rate of decline is 11.3%. Honestly, this is too low.

　The market explains that “a reversal of the yen carry trade has occurred.” The most recent example of a “yen carry trade” is 2007. The yen depreciated 10% in this phase. If the yen appreciates 10% this time, we must be prepared for a level where 1 dollar = 145 yen.

　However, we have determined that the yen will not appreciate that much in the near future. The reason for this is that compared to 2007, the balance of trade and services and foreign investment deficits are extremely different.

　Currently, the yen depreciates by as much as 37 trillion yen. In addition to Trump candidate Trump's remarks to control the depreciation of the yen in the American presidential election, I think the Fed's interest rate cut in July and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike were factored into the 10 yen appreciation here.

　The current situation has become suspicious, and at the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting from 7/30 to 31, a quantitative tightening policy was set out in addition to an additional interest rate hike of up to 0.25%, but the FOMC rate cut from 7/31 to 8/1 will probably be postponed. As a result, the area around 150 yen is thought to be the peak of yen appreciation here.

　Also, as is often said, “the appreciation of the yen by 1 yen boosts the Nikkei Stock Average by 400 yen.” In short, if the yen appreciates by 10 yen, it's 4000 yen. However, the sharp drop this time was 4815 yen. Well, it probably depends on the exchange rate, but if the appreciation of the yen seems to go round, the general exchange rate can be said to be “bottoming out.” However, the immediate return will be slow.

　Nonetheless, momentum for individual shopping is strong. However, we have fallen into a dead summer market, and investment tactics for each argument (stock) competition without looking at the forest and looking at the trees are effective in this phase.

　The fiscal year ending 2024/12 is likely to be in the red due to a change in financial results (9 month settlement), but the fiscal year ending 2025/12 is expected to turn into a sudden rise (profit per share is around 120 yen). The stock price is around 1200 yen. The downside is that business is poor, but isn't it possible to aim carefully?