The general market price is “summer dry,” but momentum for individual shopping is strong!
The stock market has completely fallen into a “summer wither” market. There was a sharp global stock depreciation from July 24 to 25. Since it's a summer vacation, there are few market participants. Also, isn't there a rewind of the “trump trade” happening?
Additionally, the collapse of the semiconductor-related sector, which has continued to rise rapidly, uncertainty about the American presidential election, and the high pressure on the yen (the appreciation of the yen pushes down the Nikkei Stock Average by about 400 yen → rushing into the 152 yen range over the weekend) are amplifying the uncertain mood. However, it seems that the Nikkei Stock Average has come close to the immediate bottom zone.
Of popular brands $Disco(6146.JP$、 $Tokyo Electron(8035.JP$、 $Lasertec(6920.JP$The decline in the main stock market is tough, isn't it? Technically, it forms an immediate ceiling. There are also people shouting, “I'm selling color.” Push buying is strictly prohibited in this situation. The intensification of US-China trade friction (America requests self-restraint from exports to China) has cast a shadow on the semiconductor industry.
In the American presidential election, the Republican Trump camp (Vance vice presidential candidate) developed an election campaign with an advantage (shooting incident as a tailwind), and a “Trump trade” had begun on Wall Street. This is the case with fevers in finance, defense, resources/energy, housing, etc.
However, the situation completely changed due to President Biden's sudden withdrawal from the election campaign and the nomination of Vice President Harris (59 years old from India, Jamaica, husband is Jewish) as a successor. Trump is white supremacist and is not popular with women.
Betting odds were 69% for Trump and 26% for Biden in mid-July, but recently they have surged to 40% for Mr. Harris. Mr. Harris has the upper hand in approval ratings in opinion polls. Well, in the world of politics, “one inch ahead is a problem.” I think the situation will be chaotic until just before voting day on November 5.
The strong pressure on the yen exchange rate is not limited to differences in monetary policies between the FRB (interest rate cuts) and the Bank of Japan (interest rate hikes). America, the key currency, says “the appreciation of the dollar is a problem.” Voices have surfaced in the market that there is a possibility of the 1985/9 “Plaza Agreement” next year. The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting at the end of this month is drawing attention.
In addition to sectors related to the appreciation of the yen, Fujikyu and the like!
In this phase, you can first enjoy the benefits of a stronger yen $Nichirei(2871.JP$、 $Nitori Holdings(9843.JP$、 $Kobe Bussan(3038.JP$I think it is necessary to keep an eye on things like that. Domestic demand-related $Mitsui Fudosan(8801.JP$You can aim for it.
After all, 1 dollar was around 115 yen in 2022/3. The FRB continued to raise interest rates, and the Bank of Japan implemented a zero interest rate policy. The Biden administration has tolerated the depreciation of the yen. That is probably the reason for the depreciation of the yen in the 160 yen range. This rewind seems to be about to begin.
As pointed out, summer prices are volatile, but momentum for individual shopping is strong. That's why they argue that the investment tactic of “don't look at the forest, look at the trees” (game of arguments) is essential. What I want to carefully aim for in the medium to long term is the stock price in the bottom price zone $Shin Nippon Biomedical Laboratories(2395.JP$That's it. Profit is expected to decline for the fiscal year ending 2025/3, but the fiscal year ending 2026/3 will suddenly rise.
$FUJI Kyuko(9010.JP$I'm late. The current profit of Nippon Pallet Pool declined drastically in the April-6 fiscal year ending 2025/3. However, demand for pallets is expected to expand rapidly against the backdrop of the “2024 problem” in logistics.
Fujikyu is inbound-related (first, it expanded into the Hakone/Lake Ashi sightseeing business) called “Mt. Fuji Kanko” (routes are Otsuki to Kawaguchiko → recently, limited express flights departing from Shinjuku have increased). It is likely that the development of the Hakone area will proceed in the future.
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183559261 : Voices have surfaced in the market that there is a possibility of the 1985/9 “Plaza Agreement” next year![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
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Isn't this a major incident?
182622019 : NITORI is passing through Wai
it's blatant
182622019 : I don't make the right shoulder, I can do it