History of the yen
From the perspective of history, the current exchange rate is considered high for the yen.
From the first in 1970 to 1984, it was 350 to 250. Japan entered the fast economic development root, with the export industry leading Japan's economy.
From 1980, agreements with Europe and the United States were successively concluded, forcibly inducing the dollar-yen exchange rate to high levels below 150 yen, eventually resulting in stagnation in the Japanese economy.
In 2012, Abenomask led to yen depreciation, leading to a prosperous Japanese stock market.
Even if the yen remains strong, Japanese real income decreases, overseas inflation continues to rise, and ultimately import costs do not decrease.
Those who argue that a strong yen benefits the Japanese economy only consider overseas travel and energy imports. Revitalizing Japan's export and tourism industries is the key to the Japanese economy.
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ぴるさん : Isn't that way of thinking a little too extreme?
孤高の芋ハイテク : That's right, the market price is the type called the eternal range![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
But that certainly might be the case ~
超長期投資家 OP ぴるさん : Is Abenomask too extreme?
超長期投資家 OP : If it is a country with high consumption power like America, there is no problem at all even if the yen appreciates.
ぴるさん 超長期投資家 OP : Extreme is the point that “since the yen has appreciated historically, it is still in the category of yen appreciation.”
,” I think bugs are good.
Certainly, if the yen became a floating exchange rate, I think the current level is an appreciation of the yen, but whatever the speculation, it was corrected (correction?) after the Plaza Agreement that's why it's being done. In other words, it's safe to say that the stage has changed.
The current yen monetary base is declining, and as long-term US interest rates fall, speculators are heating up and I think the yen will depreciate.
Under such circumstances, I think the fact that the exchange rate intervened at the stage where US interest rate cuts were expected in earnest was to prevent the government from having an impact as much as possible. (If I were to do it, I would have tried not to exceed 160 yen)
From 150 yen onwards, when the risk of depreciation of the yen seemed to enter a downtrend even though there should have been a risk of depreciation of the yen, lifting up what was before the Plaza Accord
“The old days were good” and “the government was bad
ぴるさん : Excuse me for the long sentence
超長期投資家 OP ぴるさん : Even now, I'm not saying it should be in the 200 yen range or more.
I don't know how far it would be better to depreciate the yen for the sake of the Japanese economy, but I think the Japanese government should immediately stop gradually inducing an appreciation of the yen again, even in the 160 yen range.
I believe that the Japanese government should prioritize reviving industries such as manufacturing over exchange intervention.
ぴるさん : I think the 160 yen level is already at a corrective level. It seems that the outlook for the exchange rate of Japanese companies in the future is around 143 yen. (Was it around 129 yen in the previous period?) As for that point, I feel like the Bank of Japan meeting at the end of July is the focus, but I think there won't be a rate hike based on the tone of the previous Governor Ueda's press conference. In any case, it seems that the government and the Bank of Japan have different views, so I think it's not too late to watch the government's actions."Assumed exchange rate" - The average is 1 dollar = 143.5 yen, hitting a new lowest level for the third consecutive quarter | TSR Data Insight | Tokyo Shoko Research
超長期投資家 OP ぴるさん : 140 is just a prerequisite for corporate budget planning, and it will be another matter of whether it is good for the Japanese economy, and it will not be a reason for exchange intervention.
ぴるさん : Well, it seems that the exchange intervention was unavoidable to correct speculators' sense of overheating.
Sudden exchange intervention is a nuisance that should be done from the point of view of investors, isn't it? (I'm also one of those who have been adversely affected lol)
I agree with the point that we don't know whether the current state of the Japanese economy is good or bad in terms of the current dollar yen. However, I also think that the corporate outlook “incorporates the future of the Japanese economy.”
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