The history of the circle
Looking at the history of the yen, the yen is now appreciating.
It was first 350 to 250 from 1970 to 1984. Japan entered the route of rapid economic development, and the export industry was driving the Japanese economy.
Agreements with Europe and the United States were concluded one after another from 1980, and the dollar yen was forcibly induced to a high level of 150 yen or less, and eventually the Japanese economy stagnated.
In 2012, Abenomask led to a depreciation of the yen, and the Japanese stock market was thriving.
Even if the current appreciation of the yen is maintained, the actual income of Japanese people will decrease, and overseas inflation is progressing, and import costs will not drop after all.
Those who argue that the appreciation of the yen is advantageous to the Japanese economy are only thinking about overseas travel and energy imports. The key point of the Japanese economy is to make Japan's export industry and tourism industry prosper again.
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ぴるさん : Isn't that way of thinking a little too extreme?
孤高の芋ハイテク : That's right, the market price is the type called the eternal range![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
But that certainly might be the case ~
超長期投資家 OP ぴるさん : Is Abenomask too extreme?
超長期投資家 OP : If it is a country with high consumption power like America, there is no problem at all even if the yen appreciates.
ぴるさん 超長期投資家 OP : Extreme is the point that “since the yen has appreciated historically, it is still in the category of yen appreciation.”
,” I think bugs are good.
Certainly, if the yen became a floating exchange rate, I think the current level is an appreciation of the yen, but whatever the speculation, it was corrected (correction?) after the Plaza Agreement that's why it's being done. In other words, it's safe to say that the stage has changed.
The current yen monetary base is declining, and as long-term US interest rates fall, speculators are heating up and I think the yen will depreciate.
Under such circumstances, I think the fact that the exchange rate intervened at the stage where US interest rate cuts were expected in earnest was to prevent the government from having an impact as much as possible. (If I were to do it, I would have tried not to exceed 160 yen)
From 150 yen onwards, when the risk of depreciation of the yen seemed to enter a downtrend even though there should have been a risk of depreciation of the yen, lifting up what was before the Plaza Accord
“The old days were good” and “the government was bad
ぴるさん : Excuse me for the long sentence
超長期投資家 OP ぴるさん : Even now, I'm not saying it should be in the 200 yen range or more.
I don't know how far it would be better to depreciate the yen for the sake of the Japanese economy, but I think the Japanese government should immediately stop gradually inducing an appreciation of the yen again, even in the 160 yen range.
I believe that the Japanese government should prioritize reviving industries such as manufacturing over exchange intervention.
ぴるさん : I think the 160 yen range is already at a corrective level. Certainly, it seems that the exchange rate forecast for Japanese companies in the future is 143 yen. (About 129 yen for the first semester?)
I feel that the Bank of Japan meeting at the end of July is the focus on that point, but I don't think interest rates will be raised from the tone of the previous press conference with President Ueda. In any case, the government and the Bank of Japan seem to have different perceptions, so I don't think it's too late for the government to keep an eye on it.
The average “estimated exchange rate” was 1 dollar = 143.5 yen, the lowest price updated for 3 consecutive terms | TSR DATA INSIGHTS | Tokyo Shoko Research
超長期投資家 OP ぴるさん : 140 is just a prerequisite for corporate budget planning, and it will be another matter of whether it is good for the Japanese economy, and it will not be a reason for exchange intervention.
ぴるさん : Well, it seems that the exchange intervention was unavoidable to correct speculators' sense of overheating.
Sudden exchange intervention is a nuisance that should be done from the point of view of investors, isn't it? (I'm also one of those who have been adversely affected lol)
I agree with the point that we don't know whether the current state of the Japanese economy is good or bad in terms of the current dollar yen. However, I also think that the corporate outlook “incorporates the future of the Japanese economy.”
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