The “main culprit” of the crash was the Bank of Japan's hasty interest rate hike! Tantrama burst (Ueda tantrum)?
The stock price crash of August 2024 will remain in the memories of investors. It was a historic event. No, even so, the market was terrible, too bad. It's oversold.
The Nikkei Stock Average fell by 4451 yen (12.4%) on 8/5, and the decline surpassed 3836 yen during Black Monday on 1987/10/20 and recorded the largest in history, and the rate of decline became second in history after 14.9% on Black Monday. It is said that many investors have blown away the profits of the past few years.
This crash was due to a combination of factors such as the Bank of Japan's sudden interest rate hike (0.25%), the attendant appreciation of the yen, the occurrence of a yen carry trade (75% of 500 billion dollars was rewound at once), concerns about a recession in the American economy, the collapse of IT companies' stock prices, and the tense situation in the Middle East (geopolitical risk).
However, he said, “There is no doubt that the main culprit is the Bank of Japan. In fact, the Bank of Japan is working hard to counteract the hawkish stance of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda by “maintaining current monetary easing under a situation where global financial markets are showing rapid fluctuations” (Deputy Governor Uchida). This is probably the agreement of the three parties (Ministry of Finance, Financial Services Agency, Bank of Japan) talks. The authorities are in a hurry.
After all, the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market was lost about 200 trillion yen during the 3 days of 8/1, 2, and 5. Who will take responsibility for this?
Anyway, the worst selling climax has passed. But the return will be limited. After the crash, it takes 2 to 3 months of thorough preparation. This is the theory. Since ancient times, it has been called a “teahouse at Nobori Pass, hot springs at the foot of the foot” (rapid spikes and falls push forward in one fell swoop, but then a flat trend → price consolidation began), wasn't it?
The market will develop from August to September depending on the exchange rate! Does the appreciation of the yen include 1 dollar = 134 yen?
Seasonally, August to September is a summer vacation (there are few market participants), and September is a financial month for corporations and institutional investors. The presidential election is at its best in America. There is an anomaly that “October will be the bottom price” for presidential elections where incumbents do not run for office.
Note that America's CPI for July was 2.9% compared to the previous year. This is the 3% split since March 2021. If the exchange rate is around 1 dollar = 145 yen, there is no problem. According to the Bank of Japan Tankan (June issue), the estimated exchange rate for export companies in 2024 is 142 yen 68 yen.
$Sony Group (6758.JP)$ 、 $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$ The estimated exchange rate for the fiscal year ending 2025/3 is 145 yen. Soshi $Socionext (6526.JP)$ 、 $Juki (6440.JP)$ 、 $KOSE (4922.JP)$ It's 130 yen, $Fanuc (6954.JP)$ 、 $Resonac Holdings (4004.JP)$ 、 $Mitsuba (7280.JP)$It's 135 yen.
However, major securities say “130 yen is possible” by the end of the year. If this is a “fact,” then a downward revision of business results is inevitable. The expected profit per share for the Nikkei Stock Average is likely to be reduced from the current 2440 yen to 2,231 yen. In this case, the low price of 0.03 million1156 yen of the Nikkei Stock Average on 8/5 cannot be said to be the bottom price.
However, there is no such thing as 1 dollar = 130 yen. This is the worst case scenario. In any case, the search for lower prices is likely from August to September. The basis is individual selection. The FRB is expected to cut interest rates continuously in September, November, and December. already, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ 、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ etc., have turned into a backlash.
Prime Minister Kishida's statement that he will not run for the September Liberal Democratic Party presidential election has had no impact on stock prices. This is a good performance $Japan PropTech (4054.JP)$ 、 $Yamashin-Filter (6240.JP)$ 、 $JVCKenwood (6632.JP)$、 $Kokusai Electric (6525.JP)$ It is determined that it has an odd taste.
Against the backdrop of a stinky international situation $Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)$ 、 $Namura Shipbuilding (7014.JP)$ Keep an eye out for it. In terms of growth potential $Timee (215A.JP)$ In terms of theme, $Fujikura (5803.JP)$ Probably. Strange chart $NS Solutions (2327.JP)$ 、 $Daikokutenbussan (2791.JP)$ 、 $Sanrio (8136.JP)$ continues to be in the spotlight.
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人類 : Hagenomics (guts theory economics) is better than Abenomics
something : It was the Ministry of Finance that triggered the crash
I wonder if the exchange rate will intervene at that timing
The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was also requested by the Ministry of Finance
manman999 : I was surprised that there are investors who have a negative view of Abenomics
HONDA N-ONE : The Bank of Japan is the perpetrator who pulled the trigger, but it's not the main culprit
テスラ株舐めてました : If the theory of responsibility is examined from multiple angles, what is placed outside the mosquito net is probably assuming large amounts of carry trade repayments that come from infinity loans due to securing the country's control and pampering by officials. The property of Japanese citizens was damaged as a result of lending a deaf ear to a politician who always made a fuss about it.
暇老人 : The Bank of Japan Governor's interest rate hike statement was also terrible in terms of reason and timing. Surprised by that influence, I saw the vice governor revising his boss's statement, and I feel like I saw the true identity of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan allied forces.