The Market (6/27/2024 + Up Then Down)

Good morning everyone and good morning to the Market!

I hope you have all been doing well this past week. As some of you may know, I went on vacation to NYC and what a time it was! Eventhough the weather was EXCRUCIATINGLY hot, the food was incredible, the events I went to were a ton of fun and I am incredibly greatful for the opportunity to have visited!

With that said, it's time to get back into the Markets.

When we last left off, we were relativly frusterated with the SPY. It had been moving sideways for multiple days at a time and eventhough I wanted some downside movement, I did not take a position to the downside. That would make it an emotional trade.

Regardless, that is exactly what the SPY did.

The SPY moved much lower, however we ended right back up in another area of consolidation. However, there is a bigger setup here leading to the close of the week and I think we should take a look at it.

The SPY weekly is not yet showing any signs of a larger reversal in markets. As we move higher than the Monthly rising wedge, the Market is showing its strength overall and eventhough the RSI is overextended, it might setup nicely for some further downside to retest the wedge for more upside.

There are no notable structures forming on the SPY Weekly.

In the previous article I mentioned how bad the Daily chart looks and the sellers were able to take the tape and move the price below the sharp rising channel.

There is a possible Bear Flag forming on the Daily, however it is weak. I would not be suprised if we saw further upside which would break out of the flag for more upside. The RSI is not overextended here and is ramping up, suggesting there is more room for upside.

The Market is once again consolidating, however this time it is off of an initial move down. This is what is called a Rectangle pattern. There are two kinds, a Bullish Rectangle and a Bearish Rectangle. Most Bullish rectangles happen after an inidital move to the upside followed by consolidation for more upside and most Bearish rectangles happen after an initial move to the downside followed by consolidation for more downside.

On top of the possible Bear Flag, there is also a possible Head and Shoulders pattern forming. This could mean further downside into liquidity. At the time of writing, the $546 level is acting as strong resistance over numerous 4 hour candles. We could see this level today and reject off of it for more downside.

There are some STRONG sellers at the current price here on the SPY 1 Hour. I would not be suprised if the market retested the selling liquidity on the open followed by a rejection later on the day. What we don't want to see is the market get stuck here. I think an initial move up will happen followed by potential downside later on.

I sold my Calls from Yesterday too early, but that is okay. Profit is profit. The reason I am showing this is because right now on the 15 Minute, the SPY is printing a possible breakout stucture to the upside, and its a GOOD setup if the buyers can take over the $546 level.

This is the type of breakout structure that only works on heaily liquid assets. We have seen this sort of pattern on Penny stocks and they almost always reject off of the highs because the volume is on technicals alone an not enough news or fundamentals.

At the time of writing, the SPY is absolutely ripping and loving the setup.

It's hard to write an article and trade at the same time hahaha. If I saw the buyers enter on the 5 minute then I would have held 100%, but that's okay. The markets look strong, but remember the higher time frames. I still think the Market will move down later on the day. I could be wrong though!

The larger time frames suggest a reversal move on the Week, but the shorter time frames suggest more upside. This could be a great change to try and use your own trading knowledge to find where the top could be. I NEVER recommend predicting the top of the Market, I am a reactionary trader, however when the higher time frames suggest something different than the lower time frames it is always worth looking at the chart and finding where a reversal, even if its temporary, could be in Markets.

There is a possible Bull Flag playing out on the 1 Minute chart for now. I think it will play out for more upside, but could get stuck with the heavier selling liquidity sitting at this range on the 1 Hour. Buyers will need more volume if they want to break out of the $546 level.

As I am writing this, there is some footprint liquidity coming in to the buy side. If we continue to move to the upside, this liquidty wil stick. If not, it may signal where some support may be for a period of consolidation or a possible reversal. It is not clear if this liquidity is support or not yet.

They just removed the liquidity, so I am expecing some downside here if not consolidation or sideways movement.

And now sellers added liquidity. Cannot make this up!

So far in Markets, we have been correct. We got the inital move up, and a possible move back down on the day.

I would not be suprised if we see a sweep of the lows / open of the Market here.

The possibility of retesting the $545 liquidity is high, and the probability of retesting the liqudity at the lower $544.83 - $544.94 range is higher than not.

- The market finds support at the open for more upside

- The market retests the buying liquidity

- The market retests the lower buying liquidity

SPY found support off of the open and is now moving back to the upside.

I hope you all make some money today and thank you for reading and all the support and new followers. We are approaching our 1,500 Goal and I am incredibly greatful for all of you. I want to continue to write high quality articles and you all inspire me to do so. Thank you.

Trade carefully today and get ready for a Screener Update and I hope you all have a great day in the Market.

At the time of writing, the SPY is at $546.110