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The market is betting on President Trump to save the American economy!
As an American economy investor who feels that the market for the Trump rally is quite overheated 😅.
Currently, the market is moving with stock prices, cryptocurrencies, exchange rates, and interest rates following the Trump rally. Is President Trump really steering everything well to maintain good inflation? Will it lead to stagflation from inflation resurgence? Or will they reset the economy once it collapses? Control is really difficult, and the direction of the economy in the future is quite intriguing 🤔.
Since President Trump's inauguration is in January, the rally is likely to continue for a while, but first, I'm concerned about next month's unemployment rate, right!? I also want to keep an eye on the FRB's movements based on the content of American economic indicators.
I want to collect bonds in the long term without rushing with my surplus money and dividends.
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今は米国債一本です！
とりあえず1億目指してます😊
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Discussing
Trump 2.0 Era: How will global markets evolve?
🎙️Discussion: 1. How will tariff policies affect the movement of key assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin? 2. Given this context,
Moo Live
Jan 23 16:54
MicroStrategy Q4 2024 earnings conference call
ひろ0723 : If you think that interest rates will fall due to Thursday's ICBM, unemployment insurance continued to increase, and the business confidence index, which was a big negative business confidence index, they didn't fall, and if you think that Friday's business climate index was good and it wouldn't rise, which is kind of strange. After all, the market is already watching both long-term bonds and stocks until policies are implemented after Trump takes office. If anything, it felt like there was a slight increase in bond expectations, side by side. It is also a fact that the yield spread exceeds zero and stocks are overvalued, so once after taking office, interest rates rise rapidly due to policy, I think money will flow into long-term bonds without stock growth. Until then, I'll be running TMV for half a year. I'll take both ^_^
投資家 t9m OP ひろ0723 : The american economy is strong amid the trump rally, and the market seems to be just as hiro san predicted. I don't have the mindset to aim for both sides of the market while speaking hypothetically, so I am just watching from the sidelines. Hiro san is really amazing.
ひろ0723 投資家 t9m OP : There were investors, so I wrote a bulletin board on TLT. ^_^ There's no point in turning back right away, but my bond strategy is to take TMV until I turn back and then take it with eDV ^_^
If interest rates rise in the medium term, I was thinking that the only way to keep TLT and TMF without cutting losses would be to throw the same amount as TMF plus one-third of TLT into TMV in the future. ^_^ Whichever way I lean, it's nice that I can switch now, but interest rate drops will never be years away, so I'll be patient until then!
投資家 t9m OP ひろ0723 : Hiro's style is ideal
Most of my bonds are TMF and I just steadily collect TLT and EDV and wait for them to be returned
ひろ0723 投資家 t9m OP : It's fine if you have the energy to collect
^_^ Just make it through to the end without getting lost with one! I have to stop it, it's 100%, so it's great ^_^
ひろ0723 : Good evening investors, the opportunity came early! Other than the recession, I wasn't thinking about lowering interest rates due to the appreciation of the yen, but if Trump forcibly pushes for an appreciation of the yen next year, it will go quite a bit! If it goes to the 120 yen range, the interest rate is 3% in the past example! (2022/5/129 yen) If the yen appreciates after the beginning of the year, it's time to return to TMF!
投資家 t9m OP ひろ0723 : Just the fact that the interest rate has stopped falling makes me feel mentally relieved. The future is still full of uncertainty, so I will continue to endure without letting my guard down.
I always refer to Hiro-san's comments for advice.
ひろ0723 投資家 t9m OP : So far, there have been elements of inflation, but the usual method of lowering interest rates was not considered, opting instead for forcibly raising the yen to lower interest rates! If you take office and even once apply pressure by saying 'Japan's interest rates are unreasonably low,' the interest rates will drop significantly. ^_^ It's within the realm of personnel and speculation right now, but raising Japan's interest rates would solve a lot of things, I think. Interest rates are difficult but interesting!
投資家 t9m OP ひろ0723 : Certainly! I honestly believe that Japan's policies are sound, and if Japan cannot raise interest rates effectively, the exchange rate might even reach 100 yen per dollar during a recession. Mr. Ueda has also occasionally made remarks about waiting for a recession in America! However, with President Trump in office now, I wonder if that will still happen? If we read between the lines, maybe around 120 yen? I think we will have a slightly clearer picture by spring 2025, but I would like to know the direction sooner if possible.
I apologize for my unwarranted subjectivity
ひろ0723 投資家 t9m OP : The reason yen is being bought even though there is no reason in Japan now is strange, isn't it? Trump just wants a weaker US dollar, he only wants to lower interest rates. If pressure is put on Japan, it seems easy to raise interest rates, and just making such statements seems to lead to a stronger yen. Well, if Trump is thinking that deeply, he's amazing. It's a learning experience~
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