The Nikkei average, which is rapidly rising in the tech market, and the highest price update is a “matter of time” and 40,000 yen is in sight!? NVIDIA's financial results for the 21st are the key points

The Nikkei Average is the highest in history, and 40,000 yen is in view
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun dated 13th said, “The movement aiming for dividends is likely to become active until the end of March,The Nikkei Stock Average is also expected to test record highs” (Kuramochi Yasuhiko Market Strategist at Mizuho Securities),”The highest price update is only a matter of time, and it is not difficult to reach 40,000 yenIt introduces market views such as” (Shigemi Yoshinori Macro Strategist of Fidelity Asset Management).
According to Bloomberg on the 13th, aggressive views on Japanese stocks intensified even in the derivatives market, and sales of call options (right to buy, for 3 months) with 40,000 yen as the exercise price increased, and the price temporarily hit a high price of 90 yen.

Tokyo Electron was well received because financial results and full-year forecasts for the 3rd quarter (October-December) of the fiscal year ending 2024/3, which were announced after closing on the 9th, improved. Also, the fact that British Arm Holdings, which is under the umbrella of the SoftBank Group, showed a bullish full-year outlook when announcing the 3rd quarter on the 7th, and the stock price rose drastically, which led to buying. The rise in major tech stocks in the US also seems to have been a factor causing investors, mainly foreigners, to search for similar domestic stocks.
Since the SoftBank Group raised the closing price by 128 yen on the 9th, the Nikkei Stock Average rose by 34 yen compared to the previous day's closing price. Also, on the 13th, these two companies and Advantest alone accounted for over 50% of the increase in the Nikkei Stock Average.
At the market”The upward trend continues, but once NVIDIA's financial results come out, the upward trend will calm down once due to lack of materialsIt seems that there are many views (Daiwa Securities Chief Technical Analyst Kinouchi Eiji) (Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 9th). The macro strategist Shigemi of Fidelity Asset Management mentioned above is”There are aspects where expectations for semiconductor-related matters tend to rise ahead of financial results announcements from semiconductor companies that have received high market attention, such as Applied Materials and NVIDIA. There may be situations where adjustments will be made in the short term,Semiconductor-related products will continue to be central to boosting Japanese stocksI think” (Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 13th).

There is also a danger in the concentration of investment stocks
Meanwhile, Bloomberg on the 13th is “Yamaguchi Masahiro, senior market analyst at SMBC Trust Bank”The current rise in the Nikkei Average has been significantly affected by AI-related price movements, so it's probably stock prices on thin iceThe comment” has been introduced.
The “NT ratio,” which is calculated by dividing the Nikkei Average by the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX), which has a relatively large influence on value stocks, continued to rise, and it increased 14.53 times on the 13th. The NT ratio is generally about 10 to 12 times. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun dated 9th pointed out that it was “a high level since 23/7, when the previous stock appreciation due to AI occurred,” and similarly, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun dated 9th touched on “buying bias against some large stocks has become conspicuous.”

Pay attention to factors that increase stock prices other than the tech market
In addition to AI/semiconductor-related stocks, there are factors that can be expected for the Nikkei Average to hit the highest value. The yen is currently depreciating from observations that the Japan-US interest rate difference will not shrink for the time being, the shift in investment destinations from the sluggish Chinese stock market to the Japanese stock market, movements aimed at shareholder returns and improvements in capital efficiency centered on companies with good financial results, and new inflows of funds associated with the start of the new NISA.
If investment stocks expand due to these factors, it is likely to lead to a stable increase in stock prices without being temporary.