Nvidia's earnings report is a double kill for bulls and bears, leading to a major pullback before the Fed turns hawkish.
Friends who haven't seen it can take a look at my previous post.The strong hedge remains, wait and see Nvidia's earnings report.I mentioned not to gamble on earnings using options, even if gambling, it's best to short the volatility. Because even if I'm overall bullish on Nvidia, buying calls when iv far exceeds hv, the probability of loss is high.
Today Nvidia.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The market opened with a sharp decline, dropping from 502 all the way to 475 before briefly rebounding to 471 at the close, exactly the same as yesterday's closing price. On the options chain, the opening price for the 500 call expiring this week was 12.45, but in reality, this price could not be filled, with most people's fill price around 7. Its closing price yesterday was 11.63, meaning that even if the direction was correct, half of the investment would be lost. If one continues to resist and hold on, the outcome is predictable - this call option is now close to zero. Interested friends can check the price changes of ATM puts and calls themselves. Almost all the options that were bought at yesterday's close expiring this week ended up with losses of over 50% by today's close.
The happiest people today are probably the market makers, followed closely by the friends who saw my post last time and stayed out of the market together during the earnings report. In today's market environment, not losing is winning.
Other technology stocks also fell today, with vix not significantly higher. My assessment is that today's decline is preparing for tomorrow's volatility, and whether the market sentiment changes will depend on tomorrow's statements. The Federal Reserve may maintain the current high interest rates for a considerable period of time.