Market waiting for interest rates to fall!
The rise in interest rates is unstoppable. The market interest rate on 10-year bonds has exceeded 4.5%. If this doesn't fall, stock prices won't rise. Will interest rates fall? →There are no factors that go down easily.
Chairman Powell said that the reason for the rise in interest rates is ①Strong American economyand ②Increase in government bond issuanceIt is explained by The economy is slowing down, but the economy is strong. It's a somewhat contradictory phrase, but GDP is actually growing. Government debt is also growing. The reality is the same in every country where government bonds are issued in large numbers and bridged loans are made. If new government bonds are issued, old government bonds can be sold. This is a factor that increases bond yields. One more thing: if bonds are issued, stocks are sold in order to buy them. Since such a cycle is taking place, it is difficult for the stock market to rise.
“Stock returns are more amazing than bond yields, aren't they?” “The economy is strong and performance is really good, isn't it?” If you hear voices like this, stock prices will rise. That may be the financial results season starting in mid-October or later.
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KOJIKOJI : Government blockades, which are usually said to not affect stock prices, are also too scary if Moody's ratings go down or something, government bonds are too scary.
As you said, it's also scary that there aren't any materials that can go down.
とも米国株投資 OP KOJIKOJI : It's a pattern where things that don't have a big impact one by one overlap and have an adverse effect