The semiconductor sector in Japan is actually at a solid bottom!
What kind of images do you have about the semiconductor sector today?
・Lasertech was stirred up by short selling funds and fell 25% from a high price
・NVidia lowered 10% from the high price and is making adjustments
・Many semiconductor brands are also flat or falling
・NVidia lowered 10% from the high price and is making adjustments
・Many semiconductor brands are also flat or falling
From that situation,As expected, the ceiling would have been attached; semiconductors and AI are in a bubble, so there should be a big drop from hereI think there are many people who feel that way. Certainly, there is an aspect where stocks that are too strong are being sold in individual stocks.
butIf you look at the sector as a whole, the image is different。
2644 is a GX Japan semiconductor stock ETF, and 2243 is a GX SOX linked semiconductor ETFIt is.
In Japan at 2644, the GMMA turned positive, that is, it changed to an upward trend in the medium term, and it is still close to 2% until the high prices of 3/7 and 4/1. However, since my upper beard has been getting heavier since last weekend, it may drop slightly again around here due to the ceiling in front of me.
Still, don't you think it's strong?
2243 linked to SOX continues its upward trendThat's it.
Still, don't you think it's strong?
2243 linked to SOX continues its upward trendThat's it.
What is the current market price“Semiconductors are weak, interest rates are high, and finance, banking, and insurance are strong”I think it's an image like that,The chart is quite different from that imageDon't you think so?
It's certainly not an exciting situation, but even so, when viewed by sector, they are each significantly higher than indices such as the Nikkei Average, TOPIX, and SP500.
The immediate stock price of semiconductors rises and falls due to the silicon cycle, but it is strong even in terms of the silicon cycle until next spring; if you look at it in 5 to 10 years, the silicon cycle is within the margin of error, and it is not strange if the stock price is 3 times 5 times... or rather, I think the world is definitely like that.
In other words,If you want to increase your assets, the semiconductor sector must be a long-term investment and be sure to include it in your portfolio. This has been posted on blogs and videos many times. If it were to fall, it would be good to confirm that the decline has stopped before buying.
And as for the ratio, unfortunately, the US is the stronger sector after all,
2243: SOX integration 60%
2264: Japan Semiconductor 40%
2243: SOX integration 60%
2264: Japan Semiconductor 40%
I think I should have both at least. Wouldn't it be better to raise the semiconductor sector or stocks to at least 20% of stock assets and select stocks based on dividends and growth potential for the rest?
Big profits... are fine with individual stocks such as NVDA and ARM, but it won't always be NVDA's supremacy. Therefore, even though there are concerns that individual stocks will plummet or crash, I believe that AI and semiconductors seen in the sector may also grow rapidly in such a way that the current situation cannot be anticipated on a sales/profit basis.
There are companies that beat NVDA in the global market where NVDA is half the price, and they are also companies in the AI/semiconductor sector. In other words, there will be no major decline in the index. There will be a temporary sharp drop, though.
Again,Values that say semiconductors are bubbles but don't rise (just cheap brands that feel like they are), and market prices that don't pay off even if you only buy small growth brands will continue for a few yearsI think so. I think it's important to clearly recognize the current situation by looking at medium- to long-term charts in the sector rather than impressions or images.
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☆ラジエル★ : I think the rice owner's analysis is certain. However, in terms of individual investment styles, it is difficult to determine since there is a short term, medium term, long term, and super long term. I think diversified investment by basic sector is the best. There are also swine bastards like me who concentrate on 3 brands for a long time explosion lol
It's been a learning experience. Thank you very much ♪
熊谷_オプラボOP ☆ラジエル★: Thanks for commenting!As you said, each person has a different investment stance, and I think that those who can select stocks, like Mr. Raziel, should invest individually and centrally.There is an aspect where I wrote it without clarifying the premise, but I'm concerned that many people, even those who make diversified investments, avoid semiconductors and AI and are scattered. Or rather, it would be a waste.
More than necessary, some experts and economists are sending messages that imprint AI and semiconductors as bubbles from the digital side alone, and I'm really worried about that.
So, the message was that about 20% of the stock assets would be better distributed to semiconductors. So, I wonder if those who can't select individually would be fine with a sector index ETF without overdoing it.I'm envious that they have a sense of being able to sort individually!
☆ラジエル★ 熊谷_オプラボOP: Finally, Kumagai Oprapo's post was carefully made. It also takes time. I understand! it's a paid level. It's a post with a
of love, isn't it? Replies are fine. I'm rooting for you. Hope to post again! 
NOIR(のあ) : Japan has only SBG and GX semiconductor ETFs, so I'm not sure, but NVDA has no complaints about both financial results and earnings forecasts, but I think they are all stocks on speculative and ridiculous charts relating to how Okeya makes money if the wind blows. I'm saying the same thing in my comments every time, but it's the AI market price, not the semiconductor market price. There is finally an upward trend due to the semiconductor industry cycle, but the rise in speculation that was not accompanied by business performance soon peeled off, and sales were disappointing in financial results. There's no doubt that they should have NVDA, so it may still be an opportunity for those who want to prepare when it's cheap, but I wonder if there's anything as risky as speculative brands that have already gone up.
I tweeted
熊谷_オプラボOP : Thanks for commenting!
When it comes to AI market price or semiconductor market... I look at the semiconductor market rather than the AI market price.
AI indicates generative AI, and since business will accelerate in various fields from now on, I feel that the tone of the bubble is different because sales are not rising now. So I think numbers will be added to the generative AI field from now on.
On the other hand, there is a supply and demand cycle for semiconductors up until now in the demand part (smartphones and servers), so they should peak out in 1 year.
However, as generative AI grows rapidly as a business, there is even more demand for various semiconductors and technological evolutions.
I believe this will result in an accelerated increase in demand that we cannot even imagine today.
If you think of this as an optimistic, fictional image, then semiconductors are simply one sector of stocks. On the other hand, if we think that demand will expand due to a major wave due to a paradigm shift, it will become a world that falls far short of existing ideas such as supply and demand cycles and silicon cycles.
Anyway, it's been the latter for the past 10 years, and all economists have missed their predictions.
However, since NOIR already has GX Japan Semiconductor and SBG, I think that's enough, and I think they are making a safer choice in the long run than the NVDA main one.