The tumultuous August has come to an end, what will happen next?
☆ Fundamental Analysis
-NASDAQ100 (Rating: 2.5/5): There may be room for growth due to expectations of a soft landing and temporary reduction in geopolitical risks. However, I have doubts about whether the future outlook for NVIDIA and the risk of unemployment will support a steady increase.
- Gold futures (Rating: 2.6/5): While there are expectations of a soft landing, there may be an outflow of safe assets due to temporary reduction in geopolitical risks. However, there is great potential for medium-term growth due to India's tax relaxation and expectations of rate cuts.
- Bitcoin (Rating: 2.3/5): Despite expectations of a soft landing and temporary reduction in geopolitical risks, there are factors such as the "OpenSea lawsuit" and the "selling pressure from Mt. Gox and the US government" that will weigh on the upside.
・米半導体大手エヌビディア(NVDA.O), opens new tabは２８日、第３・四半期（８─１０月）の売上高が３２５億ドル（プラスマイナス２％）になると予想した。市場予想（３１７億７０００万ドル）とほぼ一致する水準にとどまり、株価は引け後の時間外取引で６％下落した。
☆ US economic indicators (Rating: 3/5)
- Consumer Confidence Index: Estimated 100.3, Result 103.3 (Exceeded expectations)
- Q2 GDP growth rate (QoQ annualized): forecasted 2.8%, actual 3.0%.
Exceeded expectations)
- Q2 Core PCE (revised) growth rate (QoQ annualized): forecasted 2.9%, actual 2.8%.
Below expectations)
- New unemployment insurance claims: forecasted 0.232 million, actual 0.231 million.
Below expectations)
- Number of new unemployment insurance continuing claims: Forecast 1.87 million cases, Result 1.868 million cases (Below expectations)
- PCE deflator (year-on-year): Forecast 2.5%, Result 2.5% (as expected)
- PCE core deflator (excluding food and energy) (month-on-month): Forecast 0.2%, Result 0.2% (as expected)
- PCE core deflator (excluding food and energy) (year-on-year): Forecast 2.7%, Result 2.6% (Below expectations)
- Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index: Expected 45.5; Actual 46.1 (Exceeded expectations)
- University of Michigan Consumer Attitude Index (Confirmed Value): Expected 68.0; Actual 67.9(Below expectations)
・インド政府は今年7月、金の輸入関税を15％から6％に引き下げたほか、金の長期キャピタルゲイン課税の保有期間を36カ月から24カ月に短縮し税率も20％から12.5％に引き下げた。ゴールド最高値圏、増すインドの存在感 原油は上昇一服｜マネースクエアIt would be.
Due to tax relief in India, However, it is expected that there will be a temporary decline in commodity prices due to the expansion of crude oil futures supply.
- In response to the confirmation of the first polio infection in 25 years in the Gaza Strip, the World Health Organization (WHO) is planning vaccination for children. The WHO announced on the 29th that Israel has agreed to a "humanitarian temporary ceasefire" in combat.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on the 27th that the cross-border attack on the Russian western region of Kursk by his own army is part of the "victory plan" and that he will present this plan to American President Joe Biden next month.
トランプ前大統領、米国を仮想通貨分野のリーダーとして位置づける計画を近く発表へ - CRYPTO TIMES・NFT（非代替性トークン）電子市場OpenSeaのデビン・フィンザーCEOは28日、OpenSeaが米証券取引委員会（SEC）から「ウェルズ通知（Wells Notice）」を受け取ったことを公表。SECはOpenSeaで取引されているNFTを有価証券とみなしており、「訴訟を起こすと伝えてきた」とフィンザー氏は説明。NFTの有価証券性で提訴の可能性、米SECがOpenSeaにウェルズ通知を送付
☆ Others
so the upside is likely to be heavy.
Regarding the super micro computer, short-selling investors pointed out the possibility of accounting issues and it was also disliked that the submission of the annual report (Form 10-K) was revealed to be delayed. As for the company itself, the financial results announced in early August were disappointing, and the stock price had dropped significantly at that time as well.
- US semiconductor giant NVIDIA (NVDA.O) estimated that its revenue for the third and fourth quarters (August-October) would be $32.5 billion (+/- 2%), which is in line with market expectations ($31.77 billion), and its stock price fell 6% in after-hours trading.
The Indian government lowered the import tax on gold from 15% to 6% in July this year, and shortened the holding period for long-term capital gains taxation on gold from 36 months to 24 months, with a tax rate reduction from 20% to 12.5%.
Crude oil futures fell sharply in trading on the morning of the 30th in New York. Reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-member oil-producing countries, known as OPEC Plus, plan to implement the previously announced supply expansion for October to December (Q4) served as the catalyst.
- There is a possibility that Mt. Gox and the US government may exert a total additional selling pressure of about 15 billion dollars on the market, and the stagnation of Bitcoin's momentum may continue into September.
- Former President Trump announced in a post on his social media "X" on Thursday that he plans to position the United States as a leader in the field of cryptocurrency.
- Devin Finzer, CEO of the NFT electronic marketplace OpenSea, announced on the 28th that OpenSea has received a 'Wells Notice' from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC considers the NFTs traded on OpenSea as securities and has informed us that they may file a lawsuit," said Finzer.
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ぴるさん OP : In my opinion, I can't help but feel like the downward trend will continue unless the expected unemployment rate/cut in interest rates is lower than the market's financial estimates.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
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Of course, I can only hope that my expectations will be proven wrong.