The U.S. CPI data for October came in lower than market expectations. Is a bull market coming?
The recent rise in U.S. stocks has made people doubt their life choices, while Malaysian stocks have only seen a few low-trading stocks hit the daily limit up. Overall market sentiment is still not very good, indicating a lack of consensus on market themes. Hopefully this round of U.S. stocks can drive the Malaysian market higher.
On the other hand, the decline in the U.S. ten-year bond yields has improved market sentiment, with the belief that the Fed will cut interest rates in June next year. However, looking at it from another perspective, the decline in the 10-year yields also indicates an increased demand for bonds, suggesting concerns about an upcoming economic downturn.
But it's good for the stock market in the short term, as the further tightening pressure has been reduced. I personally believe that the U.S. stocks will see a small bull market (Malaysian stocks might have to wait, as the peak earnings season is approaching.). I still hold my previous view, I believe the stock market will be very good in the next two years, but there might be a major pullback before that, possibly happening in 2024 Q1 at the earliest, or Q2 at the latest, followed by a redistribution of wealth.
Don't go all-in on this round of increases, remember to take profit when things are going well and prepare for the next round of declines.
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