The US Job Market Has Changed, Sahm Rule No Longer Valid as a Recession Indicator
Claudia Sahm argues that the current rise in unemployment is no longer due to reduced demand for workers but rather an increase in labor supply. For instance, the surge in immigration to the US post-pandemic has helped the job market recover, causing unemployment to rise and no longer serving as proof that the US economy is in recession.
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intuitive jackal : that's funny, looks like she needs to come back toe th earth. those immigrants aren't taking the real jobs, just filling the unskilled labor positions. don't believe all the lies spied out by the government. ask yourself why they need to revise the number up and down ? it's all political propaganda just like the Nazis used.
10baggerbamm : the history of the accuracy of the Sahm rule is like 95% so now they want to change it you know why they want to change it just like Janet yellen miraculously out of her ass changed the definition of a recession from what everybody who ever had economics 101 knows to be the truth. two consecutive quarters of negative GDP is a recession so Joe Biden had a recession and q1 Q2 of 2022 that is a fact. but Janet yellen feels compelled that she can just change the definition well that it must include a high rate of unemployment because if you don't have a high rate of unemployment you don't have a recession. well how convenient for that because covid was over in the world was opening up so you're not going to have a high rate of unemployment when everyone's getting back to work. so now they want to take what is known to be an established accepted way to evaluate a recession and eliminate it and if you look at the history of this definition it's like 95% of the time when you check those boxes we're already in a recession. and since you have these keynesians that are sitting in office right now that were appointed the chairman of the Fed and they use trailing data and a change in interest rates is 12 to 18 months for rate changes to have their full effect. we haven't even felt the full effect of the last rate increases the last several. so the reality is we probably already are at a negative GDP despite what economic numbers the government is publishing because they lie about everything else why would they not lie about that right?
70198652 intuitive jackal : True
70198652 : You are right. They are big lier due to their political interests in the coming election, and like us, average investors believe and lose money