The US market is shaking... how is Mr. Powell's statement!?
☆ Fundamental analysis (Bitcoin: 3.25/5, NASDAQ: 3.25/5, Gold: 3.5/5)
Bitcoin NASDAQ: Despite concerns about a recession in US economic indicators, there is room for further increase due to “suggestions for September interest rate cuts,” “room for an increase in the Republican Party approval rating for the US presidential election,” and “NVIDIA financial results expectations.”However, there is room for the unemployment rate to rise, which is the focus of the future, and there is room for a sharp decline due to war-related uneaseUnstable marketIt isYou need to keep that in mind.
gold: Despite concerns about a recession in US economic indicators, there is room for further increase due to “September interest rate cuts suggested.” Also,There is room for inflow into safe assets due to war-related instability.
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⭐ ︎ US Economic Indicators (Bitcoin: 2/5, NASDAQ: 2/5, Gold: 2.5/5)
・Leading Economic Index Composite Index: -0.6%(Forecast: -0.3%) (month-on-month)
・Number of new unemployment insurance claims in the previous week: 0.232 millionCase (Expected: 0.23 million)
・Number of people who continued to receive unemployment insurance for the previous week: 1.863 million people(Expected: 1.867 million people)
・Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index: 48.0(Expected: 49.6)
・Service Sector Purchasing Managers Business Index: 55.2(Expected: 54.0)
・General Purchasing Managers Business Index: 54.1(Expected: 53.5)
・Revised Employment Statistics (2024):-0.81 million people
→Overall negative than expected.In particular, about revised employment statisticsIt should be recognized as a value that can never be ignored.
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⭐ ︎ Summary of VIP remarks (Bitcoin: 5/5, NASDAQ: 5/5, Friday: 5/5)
“Bank of Japan Governor Ueda”
・ “Determine the impact of financial markets on the economy and prices, and the impact of the July interest rate hike”
・ “If an increase in the accuracy of realizing the economy and prices as anticipated can be confirmed, the degree of monetary easing will be adjusted”
・ “Interest rates in Japan are still low, and if the economy recovers, they are expected to rise to a level regarded as neutral.”
・ “July interest rate hike, interest rate adjustment in an accommodative situation below neutral interest rates”
→The current situation is wait-and-see, but in terms of attitude, it is slightly more than hawkish.
“Federal Reserve Chairman Powell”
・ “The time has come to adjust policies”
・ “Inflation is now pretty close to target”
・ “There is no doubt that the labor market is cooling down”
→The September rate cut should be seen as certain. However, depending on the decline, it is taken as a positive or negative reaction, so close attention is necessary.
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⭐ ︎ War-related (Bitcoin: 2/5, NASDAQ: 2/5, Friday: 4/5)
“Hamas related”
・Regarding the course of the cease-fire between the Israeli military and the Islamic organization Hamas, US President Joe Biden received negotiations conducted in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and expressed an optimistic perception that they were close to an agreement. In response, Hamas executives dismissed it on the 17th, saying “it's an illusion.”
・US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken revealed on the 19th that Prime Minister Netanyahu accepted America's “bridging proposal” leading to a cease-fire agreement. Next, the director stated that it depends on whether the Islamic organization Hamas accepts it.
→The focus is on the Hamas cease-fire agreement. However, this cease-fire plan is only temporary, so don't be optimistic.
Ukraine-related
・While Ukraine continues its cross-border attacks against Russia, it is increasing pressure on the country to resume peace negotiations. In response to this, the Russian presidential office strongly denied the possibility of entering into negotiations on the 19th.
・On the 22nd, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of attempting an attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant in Kursk Oblast in western Russia.
→No settlement has been made yet. There is a possibility that it will become even more intense.
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⭐ ︎ US presidential elections/others (Bitcoin: 4/5, NASDAQ: 4/5, Friday: 2.5/5)
・Robert Kennedy Jr., who was running independently in the US presidential election, withdrew from the election campaign on the 23rd and announced that he supports former President Trump, the Republican candidate.
・A sense of alarm about Mr. Harris's economic policies Proposing the highest “wealth tax” in history and a corporate tax rate increase.
→There is room for the Republican Party's approval rating to rise.Even though the Democratic Party takes power, they are concerned about a soft landing.
・The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on the 23rd that it will temporarily suspend the program to suppress excessive production capacity in the steel industry from the same day in order to carry out a review.
→There is room for commodity demand to rise
・Total revenue for NVIDIA's financial results for the May-July fiscal year is expected to increase 2.1 times.
→Can we suggest the continuation of the AI bubble, requires close attention
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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