高贵的阿德莱德 commented on a stock · Oct 9, 2023 21:48

War is coming

I have been paying attention to the defense sector for a long time due to concerns about war. I previously held positions in $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$ and $RTX Corp (RTX.US)$ , but due to breaking through the stop-loss, although I did not completely sell off, I have already significantly reduced my holdings.

War has finally arrived. Initially speculating on several powder kegs: Serbia, Israel, North Korea, Taiwan. The conflict between Israel and Palestine erupted first, which was also reasonable. The continuously declining defense stocks saw a sharp rise at the opening. However, it only rose to the price where I initially cut losses. Buying back now, I'm not losing anything.

And this kind of thing, no one can predict when it will happen.

I looked at several defense stocks before the market opened, and later combined with technical analysis to choose $General Dynamics (GD.US)$ I currently only hold this defense stock with a position of 5%. If there is a pullback in the future, based on the technical trend, I will choose again from noc, lmt, and gd and increase the position by 5%. The target price is to break through the previous high and gradually take profit.

For technology stocks, my current top holding is $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ with a position of 10%. It mainly came from switching from $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ . Since Zuckerberg is no longer obsessed with the metaverse and has turned to open source AI platforms, my attitude towards this stock has also changed. As long as it doesn't fall below last Friday's low, I remain bullish.

Next is $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ . Among many chip stocks, I chose the most defensive Asmi with a current position of 6%. If it continues to fall, I will add another 4%. Other chip stocks are not considered for now.

Energy stocks have entered a downward trend, so it may reverse again. I believe that as long as Saudi Arabia and Iran do not get involved in the Israeli-Palestinian mess, oil prices are unlikely to skyrocket. Currently, I have a 6% position in it. $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ Continue to wait and see. The biggest concern is that the oil price affects the decline in inflation, leading to a further surge in bond interest rates. If there is another rate hike, if the yield on the ten-year Treasury bonds exceeds 5% this year, and remains at that level for a year or longer, the US economy will definitely encounter significant problems. Just not sure how long it can hold up. It should be able to hold up until 2024, maybe it will collapse in 2025, or perhaps collapse in 2026-2027. Because the USA is a country driven by technology and consumerism, there are too many unprofitable companies, and a prolonged period of high interest rates will lead to a collapse. With high oil prices, high housing prices, rents and interest rates, consumer spending will also collapse.

Coca-Cola $Coca-Cola (KO.US)$ Can't afford to drink any more, what will be the next cut in consumer spending?

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高贵的阿德莱德 OP : Aviation stocks are really miserable. I bought the bottom of the bill before, then I lost half of it, and I still have some in my hands. It is now close to its lowest point during the pandemic, and cutting meat is impossible at this price. I can only hold on

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高贵的阿德莱德

本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。

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