Tailwinds from rate cuts! Is it the perfect time to buy USA cruise stocks, which are currently thriving with a remarkable 264% increase over the past 2 years?

It can be said that the industry most affected by the pandemic (global epidemic) is the cruise industry. While almost all other industries were allowed to resume operations, cruise operators were forced to stay in port for many months.、In order to survive, cruise companies had to incur immense debts.The fact that cruise companies are still burdened with large debts remains a major risk for investors. $Carnival (CCL.US)$and $Norwegian Cruise (NCLH.US)$Among the major operating companies,has the highest financial leverage.。

The stock prices of the three major companies have significantly improved since 23 years ago (Royal Caribbean has also improved since 23 years ago).rose by 264%, Norwegian Cruise Lineup 71%, CarnivalRising by 132%) however, except for Royal Caribbean, it still significantly lags behind the pre-pandemic levels. Since the beginning of this month,Increased expectations of a US interest rate cutandCrude oil price decline.have further increased US cruise stocks. In the past 10 days, Norwegian Cruise Line has約18％上昇Among cruise stocks,It recorded the highest rate of increase.Carnival, Lindblad Expeditions, Royal Caribbean Cruises, and Viking Holdings respectively.16%、13％、13％、11％registered a growth rate. Of note, Royal Caribbean Cruises did on the 24thupdate to an all-time highThis is.

According to the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), passenger numbers boarding cruises are predicted to reach 35.7 million in 2024, an increase from 31.5 million in 2023. This forecast shows a 7% increase from the 2019 pre-pandemic figures, reflecting the growth in the cruise industry. Furthermore, as per the same association, the cruise industry is expected to reach around 40 million passengers by 2027, which is nearly equivalent to the entire population of Canada.这比 Canada 全人数量高出数倍That.

しかし、旅行者がこれらの水上リゾートに熱狂的に乗り込む一方で、投資家は慎重な姿勢を見せている。大手3銘柄のうち(NCLH・CCL・RCL)、ロイヤル・カリビアンの株価だけがパンデミック前の高値を上回ることができた。カーニバルとノルウェージャンはIt is still about 60% below the level of February 2020.The reason is that these companiesare burdened with huge debts.That.

On the other hand, on September 19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided on a significant 0.5% rate cut. Cruise stocks may benefit greatly from the US rate cut.Due to the decrease in interest rates, interest payments on huge debt balances may decrease, creating an opportunity for refinancing fixed-rate debts.Another reason why cruise stocks benefit from low interest rates is that low interest rates support the labor market, make it easier for companies to borrow, reduce costs for consumers, and stimulate the economy and personal consumption. As a result, 旅行などの自由裁量活動に充てる資金が増えることになる。

さらに、クルーズ業界は景気循環業界であるため、健全で拡大する経済環境において業績が向上する傾向がある。

また、米経済は堅調なペースで成長している。米国のGDPは第1四半期に減速した後、第2四半期には3％成長した。アトランタ連銀はまた、第3四半期のGDP成長率見通しを従来の年率2.5％から年率3％に上方修正した。

$Carnival (CCL.US)$Recovery is also evident from the consumer's perspective.The number of reservations has reached a record high.Despite the majority of cruises being fully booked well in advance, the company continues to expand its fleet. The cruise scheduled to depart in 2025 is fully booked, and the number of reservations has reached a record high. Capitalizing on this increasing popularity, Carnival is planning to increase capacity by 5% in the fiscal year 2024.In 2024, Carnival plans to increase its capacity by 5%.Since 2023, while the S&P 500 index has risen by about 50%, Carnival's stock has surged by over 130%. However, Carnival's stock is still trading at around 60% below the levels seen in February 2020.by more than 130%Despite this, Carnival's stock is still trading at around 60% below the levels seen in February 2020.Despite this, Carnival's stock is still trading at around 60% below the levels seen in February 2020.。

$Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$From new and Royal guests,Strong cruise demandandBenefiting from robust reservation trendsAlso,Onboard spendingやIncreased purchases before the cruiseis also doing well. The company hasrevised upward its profit forecasts for the current quarter, current fiscal year, and next fiscal yearされた。

The company operates 68 ships under five brands, making it the second largest cruise operator in the world. As a mid-priced cruise stock, the company is the best performer among three companies.measuring the best performance. Over the past 10 days, Royal Caribbean CruisesCruise stock has shown約14％上昇。2023年以来、同社株は264％超上昇しており、パンデミック前の高値を上回ることができた（カーニバルとノルウェージャンはまだパンデミック前の高値に回復していない）。

過去10日間で、 $Norwegian Cruise (NCLH.US)$株は約18％上昇Among cruise stocks,It recorded the highest rate of increase.Norwegian Cruise Line has received a neutral evaluation from JP Morgan's outlook, but the future prospects are bright.