The unexpected yield for the third quarter is close to 30%.
I only started using moomoo from January of this year (2024) (previously mainly using other platforms and markets). Looking at it by quarter:
Q1: Mainly targeting high-quality bank stocks, riding the wave of DBS dividend distribution and rights issue, achieving the expected returns.
Q2: Due to the delayed expectations of the FED rate cut, US bond yields have reached new highs, Reits also dropped to low points due to various factors affecting, I gradually buy Reits in batches with all (yes, show hand) funds in Singapore until fully invested, which also resulted in a poor Q2 yield.
Q3: With the continuous decrease in July CPI, PCE, the trend of FED rate cut is becoming more clear. In addition to Reits gradually returning to their rightful value, I have also invested multiple times in short-term US bond ETFs (mainly TMF) and achieved some results.
For the upcoming Q4, due to the excessive rise in related assets in the short term, combined with potential disruptions from the US election, it is difficult to assess the future trends. I have gradually reduced or even cleared my holdings in batches, most of them temporarily stored in money market funds (cash+). My personal experience is:
1. Although the trend of US rate cuts has been established, the stock market is often driven by expectations. In fact, even before the actual rate cut on 9/18, US10Y, US20Y, etc., had already anticipated a 5-6 basis point rate cut, and there will definitely be a subsequent correction (of course, the trend of rate cuts remains unchanged, but the long term may remain at a neutral level rather than drop to 0.25%).
2. Similarly, taking N2IU in Reits as an example, although rate cuts can reduce Reits' financial costs, generally less than 20% of Reits' loans are renewed with fixed interest rates expiring each year, and interest costs only account for a small portion of property trusts. However, it has already risen from 1.22 to a high of 1.51, fully (even excessive) reflecting short-term profit growth. I will reevaluate after the next quarter's financial report (9/30) is released.
I may lean more towards Buffett's view, being conservative in response until the trend is clear, although I may miss some opportunities, but I will adapt. Sometimes in financial investments, what one needs to fight against are mainly greed within oneself and the inertia of wanting to constantly replicate profitable experiences.
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104255742 : u are darn lucky sia
R6 Peng OP 104255742 :![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
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Kind Pumpkin : given your track records worth to get into maple tree pan asia now?
R6 Peng OP Kind Pumpkin : Personal advice: If it is a long-term investment, then its dividend rate remains at 5% +, which is suitable for long-term regular fixed investment. However, if it's a short position or a short-term investment, my assessment is that the stock price is a bit overreacting (already too much in price). However, the factors affecting stock prices are too complex, including expectations, capital aspects, policy aspects, etc. Trends can be assessed, but stock prices cannot be predicted. Currently, I am choosing to take a conservative approach, wait for uncertainties to subside after the US election, and then reconsider and decide on the direction of investment in 2025. The above is for reference only and is not investment advice.