オプション投資ラボ wrote a post · Aug 8, 2024 08:17

There is always a second bottom after a sharp decline!

Since the Bank of Japan meeting last week, the global stock market has been extremely volatile, experiencing both major declines and major surges. Are you all managing to get through it somehow?
Or were you able to rapidly increase your assets in the short term?

Something"The decline exceeds Black Monday"It is not the price range that is important.
volatilityIt is.
* By the way, it is better not to pay attention to people who use "biggest decline" in their thumbnails or titles.Fishing master discovery wordis w

As I have written in this moomoo column several times,The important thing is how high the VIX and Nikkei VI peak, and what level they move after that.... That's it. "The largest decline in history" or meaningless numbers are just numbers that the media wants to make an impact with.

On August 5th, 2024, the Nikkei VI reached a high of 85.38, which was higher than the COVID shock!This becomes important information.

AndAfter being hit by a collapse that exceeds 50 in the Nikkei VI, there is a fact that often tries to return with autonomous rebound and then goes to see the low again in many cases.... That's the fact.

This is a story that is usually written in the candlestick textbook.Be careful because even if the market stops falling once due to a sharp decline or crash, it will go to make a second bottom....that's the story.

The "second bottom" is actually just a description of the volatility characteristics that "markets with volatility exceeding 50% or 60% cannot settle down without trying multiple attempts to find a lower price".This is just a description in the form of a chart of the volatility characteristics that "markets with volatility exceeding 50% or 60% cannot settle down without trying multiple attempts to find a lower price".This is just a description in the form of a chart of the volatility characteristics that "markets with volatility exceeding 50% or 60% cannot settle down without trying multiple attempts to find a lower price".

If the volatility does not settle down, the stock price will not settle down.
Volatility refers to the "energy of stock price fluctuations".

If you drop a ball from a high place, in other words, if you increase its potential energy, it will bounce back on the ground and rise to a certain height, then bounce back on the ground again and rise a little... This is called a bounce.

In the keywords of the stock marketit's also called a "dead cat bounce".right?

This is a daily candlestick chart of the Nikkei Average during the "Black Monday" that occurred in the United States on October 19, 1987.

In Japan, on the following day, there was a massive drop of -14.90% and the next day, there was a sharp rebound and the market didn't open, and by the 21st, it had recovered a total of +14.02%. However, the relief was short-lived, as it dropped back down to the previous low over the next two days.

Furthermore, on 11/11, it made a third low, and on 12/28, it made a fourth low, expanding the decline, and finally started to rise after spending a full 2 months at the fourth low.

Next is the corona shock in March 2020.

From February 6th to March 19th, 2020, the decline was -31.8%.
From there, it rebounded by +19.5%, and the second bottom was -9.8%.

At this time, the world implemented urgent unconventional easing, so the second bottom also rose rapidly.

And this is the current situation.

It is similar to the shape after Black Monday and the coronavirus, of course.It's a natural thing.That's right.

Talking about this being a repeat of Black Monday or the similarity to the chart shape is nonsense.Since it is an abnormal high volatility market, it is natural for the price to move in a similar way.That is what it means.

In other words, it is still difficult to determine whether yesterday's high is a temporary price return, but it has returned 15% to 35,850 yen. There is also a feeling that it has returned to a good place.

In that case,There is a quite high possibility of a drop back to the 32,000 yen range again.It is.
AndIn the next decline, credit buying groups and inexperienced investors who have endured this time will start selling, indicating that their spirits have broken..

Since the Nikkei VI is still in the 40s, I think it would be better to keep in mind the possibility of another significant decline in the market.

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183946329 : I was wary of a crash, so profits were determined before the crash! I bought it at the bottom after it crashed and then sold in half after rising!
Profits were determined twice due to this crash, so this is probably a good result. Prices are being targeted and monitored for bottom 2.

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tm_speedstyle371 : Thank you very much. Japanese stocks seem to be easier to bottom out

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183946329 : Overseas institutional investors buy US stocks by procuring with yen, which has a low interest rate. If the yen appreciates, institutional investors will cancel their positions all at once. When dollars are sold and yen is about to be bought, yen appreciation progresses further.
Then, a crash occurs, and panic selling further lowers stock prices. And buy at the bottom. When bought, purchases lead to purchases and skyrocketed. Then, institutional investors sell. Delicious twice at once

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jinkousakugenhayaku : If anything, it's better to fall into the abyss

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