182701948 commented on a stock · Nov 3, 2024 13:29

There is no scenario where long-term interest rates will fall anymore.

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$

Following the recent employment statistics, market expectations are leaning towards a rate cut. While short-term interest rates decrease in response to these rate cut expectations, long-term interest rates have actually increased taking into account the economic recovery due to the rate cut. Therefore, in the future, regardless of good employment statistics or the possibility of recession, as long as rate cut expectations exist, long-term interest rates are likely to keep rising. Furthermore, regardless of the presidential election results, significant fiscal stimulus is unavoidable, hence leading to further increase in long-term interest rates. Therefore, there is no scenario where long-term interest rates decrease anymore, and if they were to decline hypothetically, it would only happen in the event of a major crash in the American economy.

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御社の犬 : Does this mean they're coming to crash the party? (laughs)
Yeah... that could happen.

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えいきちちゃん : I think the current interest rates are reacting to factors such as government fiscal deterioration and future inflation risks.10The end of the year is approaching.5It's starting to seem possible to add a percentage. It might be tough to resolve the deep-rooted issue of ballooning fiscal deficits.

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182701948

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